IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/brc/brccej/v7y2022i3p139-150.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Some Risks And Challenges In Achieving Romania'S External Balance

Author

Listed:
  • Camelia MILEA

    (Centre for Financial and Monetary Research of the Romanian Academy “Victor Slavescu”, Romania)

Abstract

In this article, the author aims to identify the main challenges and risks in achieving Romania's external balance, given our country's intention to achieve sustainable economic development. The methodology used combines literature review, empirical analysis of statistical data and their interpretation, with identification of causalities. Romania's external position has deteriorated during the pandemic crisis and it remains a vulnerability for our country's economy. From the analysis, it can be concluded that among the challenges and risks to Romania's external balance there are the structure of exports and imports, the deterioration of the external deficit financing way, the large fiscal deficits, the large public net external loans, from 2017 till present, the legislative unpredictability. The evolution from recent years of cost competitiveness and of factors that determine non-cost competitiveness have affected and will continue to influence negatively Romania's external balance. In addition, the low number of people with higher education employed, the low capacity for innovation of the economy, the increase in unit labor costs, the low level of labor productivity and the low technological achievements do not support the qualitative and quantitative increase of our country's exports, the production of goods of high added value and incorporating high technology, and thus the achievement of external balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Camelia MILEA, 2022. "Some Risks And Challenges In Achieving Romania'S External Balance," Contemporary Economy Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 7(3), pages 139-150.
  • Handle: RePEc:brc:brccej:v:7:y:2022:i:3:p:139-150
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.revec.ro/papers/220318.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sophocles Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & Christos Papazoglou & Nicholas Tsaveas & Melina Vasardani, 2012. "Current account determinants and external sustainability in periods of structural change," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 71-95, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Couharde, Cécile & Coulibaly, Dramane & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Current accounts and oil price fluctuations in oil-exporting countries: The role of financial development," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 185-201.
    2. Eregha, Perekunah B. & Aworinde, Olalekan B. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Modeling twin deficit hypothesis with oil price volatility in African oil-producing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. repec:pra:mprapa:40579 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Tondl, Gabriele, 2017. "Macroeconomic imbalances and business cycle synchronization. Why common economic governance is imperative for the Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 130-144.
    5. Bussière, Matthieu & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini E. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2021. "Current Account Dynamics And The Real Exchange Rate: Disentangling The Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 28-58, January.
    6. Nkuna, Onelie, 2013. "Sustainability of the Malawian Current Account Deficit: Application of Structural and Solvency Approaches," MPRA Paper 51919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Carlos Alberto Carrasco, 2016. "Causality between external balance and (some) fiscal variables: Preliminary results for the Eurozone," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 80-86.
    8. António Afonso & José Alves & Sofia Monteiro, 2024. "Sovereign Risk Dynamics in the EU: The Time Varying Relevance of Fiscal and External (Im)balances," CESifo Working Paper Series 10979, CESifo.
    9. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2015. "Fiscal policy, net exports, and the sectoral composition of output in Greece," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 521-539, October.
    10. Emmanuelle Faure & Carl Grekou & Valérie Mignon, 2022. "Current Account Balances’ Divergence in the Euro Area: an Appraisal of the Underlying Forces," Working Papers 2022-12, CEPII research center.
    11. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Eugenie N. Garganas & Stephen G. Hall, 2014. "Consumer credit in an era of financial liberalization: an overreaction to repressed demand?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 139-152, January.
    12. Imlak Shaikh & Puja Padhi, 2014. "The forecasting performance of implied volatility index: evidence from India VIX," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 251-274, November.
    13. Luis N. Lanteri, 2015. "Efecto Harberger-Laursen-Metzler. Evidencia para Argentina (1986-2014)," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 1, pages 1-1, December.
    14. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2017. "Drivers of India’s current account deficits, with implications for ameliorating them," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 23-32.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2015. "The Pitfalls of External Dependence: Greece, 1829–2015," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 307-328.
    16. Branimir Skoko & Pero Zovko, 2018. "Sustainability of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s international trade flows," Notitia - journal for economic, business and social issues, Notitia Ltd., vol. 1(4), pages 1-8, December.
    17. Jayasooriya, Sujith, 2020. "Movement of Exchange Rate on Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth in South Asia: Panel ARDL," MPRA Paper 98733, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Sophocles Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & Christos Papazoglou & Nicholas Tsaveas & Melina Vasardani, 2013. "The determinants of current account imbalances in the euro area: a panel estimation approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 299-319, August.
    19. Gomes, Gabriel & Hache, Emmanuel & Mignon, Valérie & Paris, Anthony, 2018. "On the current account - biofuels link in emerging and developing countries: do oil price fluctuations matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 60-67.
    20. Parantap Basu & Yoseph Getachew, 2020. "Redistributive innovation policy, inequality, and efficiency," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(3), pages 532-554, June.
    21. Elias Soukiazis & Micaela Antunes & Ioannis Kostakis, 2018. "The Greek economy under the twin-deficit pressure: a demand orientated growth approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 215-236, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign deficit; risks; vulnerabilities; challenges; structural factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:brc:brccej:v:7:y:2022:i:3:p:139-150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cristina GANESCU (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.univcb.ro/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.