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AgriStability with Catastrophic Price Risk for Cow‐Calf Producers

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  • Brandon Schaufele
  • James R. Unterschultz
  • Tomas Nilsson

Abstract

AgriStability is the primary Canadian agricultural risk management program. Recent experience with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the cattle sector demonstrated that output prices are susceptible to both “normal” risk and sudden, “catastrophic” declines. This paper evaluates the AgriStability program for cow‐calf producers when there is potential for catastrophic price risk. A simulation model is developed. Under a base case scenario, when there is no catastrophic price risk, AgriStability behaves more like an income support program than a risk management tool. Risk‐neutral producers see a 12.1% increase in certainty equivalent wealth compared to 12.5% for moderately risk‐averse producers. Introducing catastrophic price risk increases risk‐averse producers’ expected benefits to 21.8%. Actuarially fair program premiums and implied subsidies are also estimated. These results demonstrate that AgriStability is highly subsidized. Finally, benefits from supplementary catastrophic revenue insurance are calculated and discussed, along with several additional structural features of the program. Agri‐stabilité constitue le principal programme canadien de gestion des risques en agriculture. L'encéphalopathie spongiforme bovine qui a frappé le secteur de l’élevage bovin a démontré que les prix des extrants sont exposés à des risques « normaux » et à des chutes soudaines et « catastrophiques ». Le présent article évalue le programme Agri‐stabilité dans le cas des producteurs vache‐veau (veaux d’embouche) lorsqu’un potentiel de risque de prix catastrophique existe. Nous avons élaboré un modèle de simulation. Dans le cadre d’un scénario de référence, lorsqu’il n’existe pas de risque de prix catastrophique, le programme Agri‐stabilité ressemble davantage à un programme de soutien du revenu qu’à un outil de gestion des risques. Dans le cas des producteurs indifférents aux risques, l’équivalent certain de la richesse aléatoire est supérieur de 12,1 % comparativement à 12,5 % dans le cas des producteurs modérément risquophobes. L'introduction de risque de prix catastrophique augmente les bénéfices espérés des producteurs risquophobes de 21,8 %. Nous avons également estimé ce que représentent les indemnités actuariellement justes ainsi que les subventions implicites. Les résultats ont montré que le programme Agri‐stabilité est très subventionné. Finalement, nous avons examiné et calculé les indemnités tirées d’une assurance‐revenu supplémentaire en cas de risque catastrophique et nous avons aussi analysé plusieurs autres caractéristiques structurelles du programme.

Suggested Citation

  • Brandon Schaufele & James R. Unterschultz & Tomas Nilsson, 2010. "AgriStability with Catastrophic Price Risk for Cow‐Calf Producers," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 58(3), pages 361-380, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:58:y:2010:i:3:p:361-380
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1744-7976.2010.01182.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Peter Slade, 2021. "The impact of price hedging on subsidized insurance: Evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(4), pages 447-464, December.
    3. Trautman, Dawn & Jeffrey, Scott R. & Unterschultz, James R., 2012. "Beneficial Management Practice (BMP) Adoption -- Direct Farm Cost/Benefit Tradeoffs," Project Report Series 139638, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    4. Peter Slade, 2020. "Business risk management programs under review," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 68(3), pages 263-270, September.
    5. Rault, Arnaud, 2012. "On the effectiveness of mutual funds to cope with lasting market risks: The case of FMD in Brittany," 126th Seminar, June 27-29, 2012, Capri, Italy 125994, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Liesivaara, Petri & Myyra, Sami & Jaakkola, Antti, 2012. "Feasibility of the Income Stabilisation Tool in Finland," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122537, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Kimura, Shingo & Anton, Jesus, 2011. "Farm Income Stabilization and Risk Management: Some Lessons from AgriStability Program in Canada," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114755, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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