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Economic Growth and Optimal Tax Burden: A Case of Uzbekistan’s Economy

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  • Islombek M. Niyazmetov
  • Azizjon S. Rakhmonov
  • Otajon Otabekov

Abstract

Taxes have always been the largest contributor to the government budget revenue, so it is critical to collect maximum amount of tax revenue to meet policy objectives. The revenue performance of the countries, in turn, depends primarily on optimality of tax burden in an economy and capacity of revenue agencies to levy taxes set by the law. These factors have been major issues for all countries around the world, particularly for transition economies which are on the verge of major economic transformation. Uzbekistan as one of such countries, since 2017 has implemented multiple fiscal reforms to improve the fiscal capacity of the tax system, thereby increasing economic growth. To assess to what extend current tax policies are efficient, we put forward aim of the article as to elaborate the efficiency of Uzbekistan’s tax system using tax effort index to measure collection capability of potential tax revenue and optimal tax burden to maximize economic growth. In this study, we first using mathematical model identified tax effort index for Uzbekistan, which appeared to be approximately 45%. This implies that revenue agencies of Uzbekistan failed to collect on average half of the potential tax revenue over the period 2010–2020. Furthermore, we attempted to determine the optimal tax burden using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. According to the results of the econometric analysis, the optimal level of tax burden in Uzbekistan for the years 2000–2019 is estimated to be around 19%. Targeting tax burden to this level could reduce GDP gap by 1%.

Suggested Citation

  • Islombek M. Niyazmetov & Azizjon S. Rakhmonov & Otajon Otabekov, 2023. "Economic Growth and Optimal Tax Burden: A Case of Uzbekistan’s Economy," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 9(1), pages 47-63.
  • Handle: RePEc:aiy:jnljtr:v:9:y:2023:i:1:p:47-63
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2023.9.1.128
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Le, Tuan Minh & Moreno-Dodson, Blanca & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2012. "Tax capacity and tax effort : extended cross-country analysis from 1994 to 2009," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6252, The World Bank.
    2. Ms. Janet Gale Stotsky & Ms. Asegedech WoldeMariam, 1997. "Tax Effort in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 1997/107, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Nihal Bayraktar & Tuan Minh Le & Blanca Moreno-Dodson, 2012. "Tax Capacity and Tax Effort: Extended Cross-Country Analysis from 1994 to 2009," EcoMod2012 3858, EcoMod.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimal tax burden; tax effort; economic growth; fiscal policy; taxation; tax system; potential tax revenue;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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