IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aiy/jnljtr/v6y2020i1p22-35.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Value Added Tax on Macro-Economic Parameters of the Russian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Lyudmila P. Koroleva

Abstract

In 2019, in Russia the standard VAT rate was raised from 18% to 20%, which resulted in a broad discussion about the possible negative effects of this measure such as falling consumer spending, producers’ revenues and profits, imports and exports. The purpose of this study is to test the widely spread views about the impact of VAT on macro-economic parameters such as final consumption, gross profit and gross mixed income, fixed capital investment and export volume. To this end, we formulated three hypotheses, which we tested by using correlation, dispersion and regression analysis based on the data of the system of national accounts and reports of tax authorities in Russia. We built four dual linear regression equations and one multiple regression equation; estimated the significance of these equations (determination coefficient, F-statistic, average approximation error) and their coefficients (Student’s t-test, p-value). The resulting equations were shown to accurately represent the relationship between the criterion variables and predictors. The hypothesis about the negative correlation between VAT and consumer spending was refuted in the case of Russia. VAT revenues to the consolidated budget have a direct influence on consumer spending in the ratio of 1:12.605 and a direct influence on the tax index on consumption, index of spending and index of final consumption in the ratio of 1:0.276. There is also evidence that VAT does not have a significant negative impact on the country’s economic performance on the macro-level. VAT revenues to the consolidated budget have a direct influence on gross profit and mixed income in the ratio of 1:8.455. VAT refunds to exporters stimulate fixed capital investment and exports (VAT refunds have a direct influence on fixed capital investment in the ratio of 1:6.543 and on exports, in the ratio of 1:11.117). The positive dependencies demonstrate the neutral influence of VAT on economic growth in Russia and need to be taken into account by VAT policy-makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Lyudmila P. Koroleva, 2020. "Impact of Value Added Tax on Macro-Economic Parameters of the Russian Economy," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 6(1), pages 22-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:aiy:jnljtr:v:6:y:2020:i:1:p:22-35
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2020.6.1.073
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://jtr.urfu.ru/fileadmin/user_upload/site_15907/main/Koroleva.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2020.6.1.073?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Julien Gourdon & Stéphanie Monjon & Sandra Poncet, 2014. "Incomplete VAT rebates to exporters : how do they affect China's export performance?," Working Papers 2014-05, CEPII research center.
    2. Eimear Leahy & Seán Lyons & Richard S. J. Tol, 2011. "The Distributional Effects of Value Added Tax in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(2), pages 213-235.
    3. Gustavsen, Geir Wæhler & Rickertsen, Kyrre, 2013. "Adjusting VAT rates to promote healthier diets in Norway: A censored quantile regression approach," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-95.
    4. Brita Bye & Birger Strøm & Turid Åvitsland, 2003. "Welfare effects of VAT reforms: A general equilibrium analysis," Discussion Papers 343, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bonnet, Céline & Réquillart, Vincent, 2023. "The effects of taxation on the individual consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. Claudio A., Agostini & Javiera, Selman & Marcela, Perticará, 2013. "Una propuesta de crédito tributario al ingreso para Chile," Estudios Públicos, Centro de Estudios Públicos, vol. 0(129), pages 49-104.
    3. Gourdon, Julien & Monjon, Stéphanie & Poncet, Sandra, 2016. "Trade policy and industrial policy in China: What motivates public authorities to apply restrictions on exports?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 105-120.
    4. Härkänen, Tommi & Kotakorpi, Kaisa & Pietinen, Pirjo & Pirttilä, Jukka & Reinivuo, Heli & Suoniemi, Ilpo, 2014. "The welfare effects of health-based food tax policy," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P1), pages 196-206.
    5. L. An & C. Hu & Yong Tan, 2017. "Regional effects of export tax rebate on exporting firms: Evidence from China," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 774-798, September.
    6. Susan Namirembe Kavuma & Christine Byaruhanga & Nicholas Musoke & Patrick Loke & Michael Noble & Gemma Wright, 2020. "An analysis of the distributional impact of excise duty in Uganda using a tax-benefit microsimulation model," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-70, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Robert Hagemann, 2018. "Tax Policies for Inclusive Growth: Prescription versus Practice," OECD Economic Policy Papers 24, OECD Publishing.
    8. Galarraga, Ibon & Abadie, Luis M. & Kallbekken, Steffen, 2016. "Designing incentive schemes for promoting energy-efficient appliances: A new methodology and a case study for Spain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 24-36.
    9. Zhang, Yan & Bai, Zhuoran & Findaly, Christopher, 2021. "Value-added Tax Reform and Services Exports: Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 111184, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2021.
    10. repec:dau:papers:123456789/15040 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Eisenbarth, Sabrina, 2017. "Is Chinese trade policy motivated by environmental concerns?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 74-103.
    12. Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Jozef Konings & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2016. "Did export promotion help firms weather the crisis?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(88), pages 653-702.
    13. David Madden & Michael Savage, 2020. "Which households matter most? Capturing equity considerations in tax reform via generalised social marginal welfare weights," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 153-193, February.
    14. Qian, Nancy & Liu, Yu & Wen, Jaya & Fan, Haichao, 2018. "The Dynamic Effects of Computerized VAT Invoices on Chinese Manufacturing Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 12786, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2011. "A retrospective evaluation of elements of the EU VAT system," Taxation Studies 0039, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    16. Wonkyung Lee & Hong Ma & Yuan Xu, 2021. "Export tax rebate and the margins of exports: product-level evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(2), pages 386-404, April.
    17. Haichao Fan & Yu Liu & Nancy Qian & Jaya Wen, 2018. "Computerizing VAT Invoices in China," NBER Working Papers 24414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Liang, Yue & Lu, Wencong, 2024. "Do export tax rebates promote firm upgrading? Evidences from labor-intensive firms in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    19. Ibon Galarraga & Luis M. Abadie, 2014. "The use of “Bonus-Malus†schemes for promoting energy-efficient household appliances: a case study for Spain," Working Papers 2014-06, BC3.
    20. Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Timoney, Kevin & Byrne, David, 2013. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2013," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20134, June.
    21. Reaños, Miguel Tovar & De Bruin, Kelly & Meier, David & Yakut, Aykut Mert, 2022. "Economic and Distributional Impacts of turning the Value-Added Tax into a Carbon Tax," Papers WP739, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aiy:jnljtr:v:6:y:2020:i:1:p:22-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalia Starodubets (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/seurfru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.