IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aiy/jnljtr/v5y2019i3p236-248.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tax Buoyancy and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence of Bulgaria

Author

Listed:
  • Stoyan Tanchev
  • Ivan Todorov

Abstract

The study analyzes the long-run and short-run tax buoyancies of Bulgaria and their relationship with Bulgaria’s economic growth. The buoyancy measures the response of tax revenue to changes in economic growth. The buoyancy indicates whether collectability of the tax on income, profit, and consumption increases. The object of this study is the collectability of aggregate tax revenues and of the revenues from different types of taxes – value added tax, personal income tax, corporate tax and social security contributions in Bulgaria. The subject of the study is the relationship of different tax revenues with economic growth. The research methods employed are the fully modified least squares (FMOLS) and autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). The research covers the period from the first quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2017 and uses the Eurostat data (78 observations). The study aims to show which type of revenues (from direct or from indirect taxes) is more important for Bulgaria’s state budget. It is shown that the buoyancies of aggregate tax revenue, personal income tax and social security contributions significantly differ from one another in the long-run. The buoyancies of the value-added tax and the corporate tax are above one in the long run. In the short-run the buoyancy of the aggregate tax revenues, the corporate tax, the income tax and the social security contributions are different from one. The short-run buoyancy of VAT exceeds one, hence dynamics of VAT revenues is sustainable. The collectability of the aggregate tax revenue, personal income tax and social security contributions has increased neither in the long run nor in the short run. It is therefore recommended that inefficient taxes, whose collectability does not increase, be reformed

Suggested Citation

  • Stoyan Tanchev & Ivan Todorov, 2019. "Tax Buoyancy and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence of Bulgaria," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 5(3), pages 236-248.
    • Handle: RePEc:aiy:jnljtr:v:5:y:2019:i:3:p:236-248
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2019.5.3.070
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://jtr.urfu.ru/fileadmin/user_upload/site_15907/main/Tanchev_et_al.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2019.5.3.070?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koester, Reinhard B & Kormendi, Roger C, 1989. "Taxation, Aggregate Activity and Economic Growth: Cross-Country Evidence on Some Supply-Side Hypotheses," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(3), pages 367-386, July.
    2. Jing Xing, 2011. "Does tax structure affect economic growth? Empirical evidence from OECD countries," Working Papers 1120, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    3. Paolo Dudine & Joao Tovar Jalles, 2018. "How Buoyant Is the Tax System? New Evidence from a Large Heterogeneous Panel," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 961-991, August.
    4. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    5. Kusi, N.K., 1998. "Tax Reform and Revenue Productivity in Ghana," Papers 74, African Economic Research Consortium.
    6. repec:aer:wpaper:74 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Ashtar Telarico, 2023. "Опростяване И Усъвършенстване [Simplifying and Improving]," Post-Print hal-03989969, HAL.
    2. Fabio Ashtar Telarico, 2022. "Simplify and Improve: Revisiting Bulgaria's Revenue Forecasting Models," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 633-654.
    3. Charalambos Pattichis, 2022. "Are tax revenue elasticities consistent with a balanced government budget? An analysis and implications for six CEE countries," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 33-40.
    4. Audi, Marc & Ali, Amjad & Roussel, Yannick, 2021. "Measuring the Tax Buoyancy: Empirics from South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)," MPRA Paper 109567, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2016. "Controversies over the Size of the Public Budget," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-34, December.
    2. Direye, Eli, 2017. "An empirical study on the dynamic effects of fiscal shock on the economy of Papua New Guinea," MPRA Paper 113917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Halkos, George & Paizanos, Epameinondas, 2015. "Fiscal policy and economic performance: A review of the theoretical and empirical literature," MPRA Paper 67737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Stoyan Tanchev, 2019. "Tax structure and economic growth: empirical evidence from Bulgaria," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 24-41,42-58.
    5. Lucas Menescal & José Alves, 2022. "Optimal Threshold Taxation: An Empirical Investigation for Developing Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 9782, CESifo.
    6. Aviral Tiwari & Mihai Mutascu, 2014. "A revisit on the tax burden distribution and GDP growth: fresh evidence using a consistent nonparametric test for causality for the USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 961-972, May.
    7. Yaya KEHO, 2011. "Tax Structure and Economic Growth in Cote dIvoire: Are Some Taxes Better Than Others?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(4), pages 226-235, December.
    8. Sanjeev Gupta & João Tovar Jalles & Jianhong Liu, 2022. "Tax Buoyancy in Sub-Saharan Africa and its Determinants," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(4), pages 890-921, August.
    9. Lagravinese, Raffaele & Liberati, Paolo & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "Tax buoyancy in OECD countries: New empirical evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    10. Fernando Broner & Daragh Clancy & Aitor Erce & Alberto Martin, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers and Foreign Holdings of Public Debt [When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(3), pages 1155-1204.
    11. Antonella Cavallo & Antonio Ribba, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Oil Price and Euro-area Shocks on CEECs Business Cycles," Department of Economics 0111, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    12. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2019. "Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34, May.
    13. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
    14. Antonio Spilimbergo & Steve Symansky & Olivier Blanchard & Carlo Cottarelli, 2009. "Fiscal Policy For The Crisis," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(02), pages 26-32, July.
    15. Francesco Giavazzi, 2013. "Comment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 143-146.
    16. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 878-895, November.
    17. FitzGerald, John & Goggin, Jean & Bergin, Adele, 2008. "Economic Assessment of the Euro Area: Autumn Report 2008," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number sustat27, June.
    18. Markus Brueckner & Daniel Lederman, 2018. "Inequality and economic growth: the role of initial income," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 341-366, September.
    19. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2001. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions over the Cycle: Some Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2002_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Oct 2002.
    20. Michal Franta, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in the Czech Republic: Evidence Based on Various Identification Approaches in a VAR Framework," Working Papers 2012/13, Czech National Bank.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aiy:jnljtr:v:5:y:2019:i:3:p:236-248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalia Starodubets (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/seurfru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.