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Aging, Output Per Capita, and Secular Stagnation

Author

Listed:
  • Gauti B. Eggertsson
  • Manuel Lancastre
  • Lawrence H. Summers

Abstract

This paper re-examines the relationship between population aging and economic growth. We confirm previous research such as Cutler et al. (1990) and Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) that show positive correlation between population aging and per capita output growth. Our contribution is demonstrating that this relationship breaks down when the adjustment of interest rates is inhibited by a lower bound on nominal rates, as during the Great Financial Crisis decade. Indeed, during the "secular stagnation regime" of 2008–2015 that prevailed in a number of countries, aging had a negative impact on living standards, consistent with the secular stagnation hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Gauti B. Eggertsson & Manuel Lancastre & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "Aging, Output Per Capita, and Secular Stagnation," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 325-342, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aerins:v:1:y:2019:i:3:p:325-42
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20180383
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    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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