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The Perils of High-Powered Incentives: Evidence from Colombia's False Positives

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  • Daron Acemoglu
  • Leopoldo Fergusson
  • James Robinson
  • Dario Romero
  • Juan F. Vargas

Abstract

We investigate the use of high-powered incentives for the Colombian military and show that this practice produced perverse side effects. Innocent civilians were killed and misrepresented as guerillas (a phenomenon known in Colombia as "false positives"). There were significantly more false positives during the period of high-powered incentives in municipalities with weaker judicial institutions and where a higher share of brigades were commanded by colonels, who have stronger career concerns than generals. In municipalities with a higher share of colonels, the high-powered incentives period also coincided with a worsening of local judicial institutions and no discernible improvement in overall security.

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  • Daron Acemoglu & Leopoldo Fergusson & James Robinson & Dario Romero & Juan F. Vargas, 2020. "The Perils of High-Powered Incentives: Evidence from Colombia's False Positives," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 1-43, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:12:y:2020:i:3:p:1-43
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20180168
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    5. Harrison, Mark, 2017. "Secrecy and State Capacity: A Look Behind the Iron Curtain," Economic Research Papers 269312, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    6. Gustav Agneman, 2022. "Conflict Victimization and Civilian Obedience: Evidence from Colombia," HiCN Working Papers 379, Households in Conflict Network.
    7. Travova, Ekaterina, 2023. "Under pressure? Performance evaluation of police officers as an incentive to cheat," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1143-1172.
    8. Edgar H. Sanchez-Cuevas, 2018. "Fighting Fire with Aid: Development Assistance as Counterinsurency Tool. Evidence for Colombia," Documentos CEDE 16378, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    9. Juan Pablo Castilla, 2020. "To Kill a Black Swan: The Credibility Revolution at CEDE, 2000-2018," Documentos CEDE 18366, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    10. Samuel Bazzi & Robert A. Blair & Christopher Blattman & Oeindrila Dube & Matthew Gudgeon & Richard Peck, 2022. "The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 764-779, October.
    11. Costa-Font, Joan & García Hombrados, Jorge & Nicińska, Anna, 2024. "Long-lasting effects of indoctrination in school: evidence from the People's Republic of Poland," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120407, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Mantilla, Cesar & Gelvez Ferreira, Juan David Gelvez & Nieto, Maria Paula, 2022. "Costly Norm Enforcement through Sanctions and Rewards: An Experiment with Colombian Future Police Officers," OSF Preprints aebxy, Center for Open Science.
    13. Mounu Prem & Andrés F. Rivera & Dario A. Romero & Juan F. Vargas, 2018. "Killing Social Leaders for Territorial Control: The Unintended Consequences of Peace," Documentos de Trabajo 16385, Universidad del Rosario.
    14. Costa-Font, Joan & García-Hombrados, Jorge & Nicińska, Anna, 2024. "Long-lasting effects of indoctrination in school: Evidence from the People’s Republic of Poland," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    15. Laura Montenegro Helfer, 2017. "Forming State through Land Reform Policy: The Dynamics of Baldío Allocation in Peripheral Colombia," Documentos CEDE 15433, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    16. Steven Riascos Carabalí & María del Pilar Castillo Valencia, 2020. "El ajuste de cuentas como un mecanismo para corregir contratos criminales," Revista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, vol. 28(1), pages 67-88, June.
    17. Chen, Shuo & Qiao, Xue & Zhu, Zhitao, 2021. "Chasing or cheating? Theory and evidence on China's GDP manipulation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 657-671.
    18. Leopoldo Fergusson & Carlos Molina & James A. Robinson & Juan F. Vargas, 2017. "The Long Shadow of the Past: Political Economy of Regional Inequality in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 15445, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    19. Gerardo Barbosa Castillo & Andrés Rolando Ciro Gómez, 2020. "Garantía de no repetición: una contribución a la justicia transicional," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Derecho, number 1183, August.
    20. Aparicio, Juan P. & Jetter, Michael, 2020. "Captivating News in Colombia," IZA Discussion Papers 13834, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Aparicio, Juan P. & Jetter, Michael, 2022. "Captivating news: Media attention and FARC kidnappings," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 69-81.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • K41 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Litigation Process
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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