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Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence

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Cited by:

  1. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2022. "Stock return predictability: Evaluation based on interval forecasts," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 363-385, April.
  2. Seok Young Hong & Oliver Linton, 2016. "Asymptotic properties of a Nadaraya-Watson type estimator for regression functions of in?finite order," CeMMAP working papers CWP53/16, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  3. Roel van Elk & Marc van der Steeg & Dinand Webbink, 2013. "The effects of a special program for multi-problem school dropouts on educational enrolment, employment and criminal behaviour; Evidence from a field experiment," CPB Discussion Paper 241.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  4. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016. "Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1312-1332, November.
  5. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337, October.
  6. Gabriel Vasco J. & Alexandre Fernando & Bação Pedro, 2008. "The Consumption-Wealth Ratio under Asymmetric Adjustment," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(4), pages 1-32, December.
  7. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
  8. Avdis, Efstathios & Wachter, Jessica A., 2017. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 589-609.
  9. Hui Guo & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2013. "Time-Varying Risk-Return Trade-off in the Stock Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 623-650, June.
  10. Ke-Li Xu & Junjie Guo, 2021. "A New Test for Multiple Predictive Regression," CAEPR Working Papers 2022-001 Classification-C, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
  11. Lettau, Martin & Wachter, Jessica A., 2011. "The term structures of equity and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 90-113, July.
  12. Lennart Hoogerheide & Richard Kleijn & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. Van Dijk & Marno Verbeek, 2010. "Forecast accuracy and economic gains from Bayesian model averaging using time-varying weights," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 251-269.
  13. Hommes, Cars & in ’t Veld, Daan, 2017. "Booms, busts and behavioural heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 101-124.
  14. Faias, José Afonso, 2023. "Predicting the equity risk premium using the smooth cross-sectional tail risk: The importance of correlation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  15. Pan, Zhiyuan & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Forecasting stock returns: A predictor-constrained approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 200-217.
  16. Leland E. Farmer & Lawrence Schmidt & Allan Timmermann, 2023. "Pockets of Predictability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1279-1341, June.
  17. Davide Pettenuzzo & Riccardo Sabbatucci & Allan Timmermann, 2018. "High-frequency Cash Flow Dynamics," Working Papers 120, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
  18. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2010. "A century of equity premium predictability and the consumption-wealth ratio: An international perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 313-331, June.
  19. Chang-Jin Kim & Cheolbeom Park, 2013. "Disappearing Dividends: Implications for the Dividend-Price Ratio and Return Predictability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 933-952, August.
  20. Ang, Andrew & Kristensen, Dennis, 2012. "Testing conditional factor models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 132-156.
  21. Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi & Nassir Zadeh, Farzaneh, 2016. "Investigation of market efficiency and Financial Stability between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange: Monthly and yearly Forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns using ARMA model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 10-21.
  22. JULES H. Van BINSBERGEN & RALPH S. J. KOIJEN, 2010. "Predictive Regressions: A Present‐Value Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1439-1471, August.
  23. Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2016. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Time-Series Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 6199, CESifo.
  24. Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2016. "Stock return predictability and determinants of predictability and profits," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 153-173.
  25. Neuhierl, Andreas & Weber, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy communication, policy slope, and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 140-155.
  26. Scholz, Michael & Sperlich, Stefan & Nielsen, Jens Perch, 2016. "Nonparametric long term prediction of stock returns with generated bond yields," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 82-96.
  27. Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Advances in Econometrics, in: Missing Data Methods: Time-Series Methods and Applications, pages 1-86, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  28. Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2017. "A Simple Approach for Diagnosing Instabilities in Predictive Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(5), pages 851-874, October.
  29. Narongdech Thakerngkiat & Hung T. Nguyen & Nhut H. Nguyen & Nuttawat Visaltanachoti, 2021. "Do accounting information and market environment matter for cross‐asset predictability?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4389-4434, September.
  30. Jesús Gonzalo & Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2011. "Regime-Specific Predictability in Predictive Regressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 229-241, June.
  31. Robert F. Whitelaw, 1997. "Time-Varying Sharpe Ratios and Market Timing," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-074, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  32. Hasler, Michael & Marfè, Roberto, 2016. "Disaster recovery and the term structure of dividend strips," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 116-134.
  33. Ilaria Piatti & Fabio Trojani, 2020. "Dividend Growth Predictability and the Price–Dividend Ratio," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 130-158, January.
  34. George M. Constantinides & Anisha Ghosh, 2011. "Asset Pricing Tests with Long-run Risks in Consumption Growth," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 96-136.
  35. Chen, Yong & Da, Zhi & Huang, Dayong, 2022. "Short selling efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 387-408.
  36. Mahdi Moradi & Mehdi Jabbari Nooghabi & Mohammad Mahdi Rounaghi, 2021. "Investigation of fractal market hypothesis and forecasting time series stock returns for Tehran Stock Exchange and London Stock Exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 662-678, January.
  37. Rodrigo Alfaro & Andrés Sagner, 2019. "S&P 500 under Dynamic Gordon Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 851, Central Bank of Chile.
  38. Christophe Boucher & Bertrand Maillet, 2012. "Prévoir sans persistance," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 63(3), pages 581-590.
  39. Li, Jun & Yu, Jianfeng, 2012. "Investor attention, psychological anchors, and stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 401-419.
  40. Jack Favilukis & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Housing Wealth, Housing Finance, and Limited Risk Sharing in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(1), pages 140-223.
  41. Christophe Boucher & Bertrand Maillet, 2011. "Une analyse temps-fréquences des cycles financiers," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 62(3), pages 441-450.
  42. Michael Johannes & Arthur Korteweg & Nicholas Polson, 2014. "Sequential Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 611-644, April.
  43. Wachter, Jessica A. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2009. "Predictable returns and asset allocation: Should a skeptical investor time the market?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 162-178, February.
  44. Francesco Bianchi & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," NBER Working Papers 22572, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. van Binsbergen, Jules & Hueskes, Wouter & Koijen, Ralph & Vrugt, Evert, 2013. "Equity yields," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 503-519.
    • Jules H. van Binsbergen & Wouter Hueskes & Ralph Koijen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2011. "Equity Yields," NBER Working Papers 17416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Gupta, Arpit & Mittal, Vrinda & Peeters, Jonas & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2022. "Flattening the curve: Pandemic-Induced revaluation of urban real estate," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 594-636.
  47. Tobias Adrian & Richard K. Crump & Erik Vogt, 2019. "Nonlinearity and Flight‐to‐Safety in the Risk‐Return Trade‐Off for Stocks and Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1931-1973, August.
  48. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Richard Paap & Dick J.C. van Dijk, 2011. "An Alternative Bayesian Approach to Structural Breaks in Time Series Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-023/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  49. Deshui Yu & Yayi Yan, 2023. "Joint dynamics of stock returns and cash flows: A time‐varying present‐value framework," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 513-541, September.
  50. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Xuewen Yu & Pierre Perron, 2020. "Bootstrap procedures for detecting multiple persistence shifts in heteroskedastic time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 676-690, September.
  51. Ioannis Kyriakou & Parastoo Mousavi & Jens Perch Nielsen & Michael Scholz, 2021. "Short-Term Exuberance and Long-Term Stability: A Simultaneous Optimization of Stock Return Predictions for Short and Long Horizons," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-19, March.
  52. Yohei Yamamoto & Pierre Perron, 2013. "Estimating and testing multiple structural changes in linear models using band spectral regressions," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 16(3), pages 400-429, October.
  53. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Tharann, Björn & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2021. "Predictability in commodity markets: Evidence from more than a century," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
  54. Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "A Habit‐Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 123-146, February.
  55. Theologos Dergiades & Panos K. Pouliasis, 2023. "Should stock returns predictability be ‘hooked on’ long‐horizon regressions?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 718-732, January.
  56. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
  57. Frederico Belo & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2012. "Endogenous Dividend Dynamics and the Term Structure of Dividend Strips," NBER Working Papers 18450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  58. Mönch, Emanuel & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," Discussion Papers 25/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  59. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2018. "A new GARCH model with higher moments for stock return predictability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 93-103.
  60. Vassilis Polimenis & Ioannis Neokosmidis, 2019. "Non-stationary dividend-price ratios," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(7), pages 552-567, December.
  61. Roberto Marfè, 2017. "Income Insurance and the Equilibrium Term Structure of Equity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(5), pages 2073-2130, October.
  62. Ravi Jagannathan & Binying Liu, 2019. "Dividend Dynamics, Learning, and Expected Stock Index Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(1), pages 401-448, February.
  63. Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2017. "A Simple Approach for Diagnosing Instabilities in Predictive Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(5), pages 851-874, October.
  64. David, Joel M. & Schmid, Lukas & Zeke, David, 2022. "Risk-adjusted capital allocation and misallocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 684-705.
  65. Ruey-Shii Chen & Tai-Wei Zhang, 2018. "Dividend cuts and predictability," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 249-267, April.
  66. Favero, Carlo A. & Gozluklu, Arie E. & Tamoni, Andrea, 2011. "Demographic Trends, the Dividend-Price Ratio, and the Predictability of Long-Run Stock Market Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(5), pages 1493-1520, October.
  67. De Graeve, Ferre & Dossche, Maarten & Emiris, Marina & Sneessens, Henri & Wouters, Raf, 2010. "Risk premiums and macroeconomic dynamics in a heterogeneous agent model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1680-1699, September.
  68. Lan, Chunhua & Doan, Bao, 2022. "Stock price movements: Evidence from global equity markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 123-143.
  69. Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2013. "The expected real return to equity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1929-1946.
  70. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
  71. Efstathios Avdis & Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the equity premium," NBER Working Papers 19684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  72. McMillan, David G., 2019. "Predicting firm level stock returns: Implications for asset pricing and economic links," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 333-351.
  73. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang & Chen, Li, 2023. "Stock return predictability and cyclical movements in valuation ratios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 36-53.
  74. Park, Heungju & Sohn, Bumjean, 2016. "Long-term perspective on the stock market matters in asset pricing," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 162-170.
  75. Jiawen Xu & Pierre Perron, 2023. "Forecasting in the presence of in-sample and out-of-sample breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 3001-3035, June.
  76. Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2013. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 799-906, Elsevier.
  77. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan & Valkanov, Rossen, 2014. "Forecasting stock returns under economic constraints," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 517-553.
  78. Kwang Hun Choi & Chang‐Jin Kim & Cheolbeom Park, 2017. "Regime Shifts in Price‐Dividend Ratios and Expected Stock Returns: A Present‐Value Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 417-441, March.
  79. Polimenis, Vassilis & Neokosmidis, Ioannis M., 2016. "The modified dividend–price ratio," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 31-38.
  80. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2013. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 38-94.
  81. German Gutierrez, 2018. "Investigating Global Labor and Pro t Shares," 2018 Meeting Papers 165, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  82. Lawrenz, Jochen & Zorn, Josef, 2018. "Decomposing the predictive power of local and global financial valuation ratios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 137-149.
  83. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier & Kim, Jae, 2016. "Stock Return Predictability: Evaluation based on Prediction Intervals," MPRA Paper 70143, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  84. Yi-Chieh Wen & Bin Li, 2020. "Lagged country returns and international stock return predictability during business cycle recession periods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(46), pages 5005-5019, October.
  85. Sadka, Gil & Sadka, Ronnie, 2009. "Predictability and the earnings-returns relation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 87-106, October.
  86. Demetrescu, Matei & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2023. "Transformed regression-based long-horizon predictability tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
  87. Smith, Simon C., 2021. "International stock return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  88. Demetrescu, Matei & Georgiev, Iliyan & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2022. "Testing for episodic predictability in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 85-113.
  89. Londono, Juan M. & Regúlez, Marta & Vázquez, Jesús, 2015. "An alternative view of the US price–dividend ratio dynamics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 291-307.
  90. Maio, Paulo & Xu, Danielle, 2020. "Cash-flow or return predictability at long horizons? The case of earnings yield," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 172-192.
  91. Hui Chen & Nengjiu Ju & Jianjun Miao, 2014. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Ambiguous Return Predictability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(4), pages 799-823, October.
  92. Michael Frömmel & Robinson Kruse, 2012. "Testing for a rational bubble under long memory," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 1723-1732, November.
  93. Boucher, C. & Jasinski, A. & Tokpavi, S., 2023. "Conditional mean reversion of financial ratios and the predictability of returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  94. Benjamin Golez & Peter Koudijs, 2014. "Four Centuries of Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 20814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  95. Jiang, Danling, 2008. "Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations and Expected Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 8325, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  96. Cem Cakmakli & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Getting the Most out of Macroeconomic Information for Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-115/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  97. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang & Chen, Li & Li, Luyang, 2023. "Forecasting dividend growth: The role of adjusted earnings yield," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  98. Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2020. "Stock prices, dividends, and structural changes in the long-term: The case of U.S," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  99. Golinski, Adam & Madeira, Joao & Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2014. "Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-79, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  100. Nebojsa Dimic & Vitaly Orlov & Janne Äijö, 2019. "Bond–Equity Yield Ratio Market Timing in Emerging Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 18(1), pages 52-79, April.
  101. Kaihua Deng, 2015. "Predicting By Learning: An Adaptive Rationale," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-14, December.
  102. Nonejad, Nima, 2023. "Conditional out-of-sample predictability of aggregate equity returns and aggregate equity return volatility using economic variables," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 91-122.
  103. de Oliveira Souza, Thiago, 2019. "Predictability concentrates in bad times. And so does disagreement," Discussion Papers on Economics 8/2019, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
  104. Rengel, Malte & Herwartz, Helmut & Xu, Fang, 2013. "Persistence in the price-to-dividend ratio and its macroeconomic fundamentals," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79860, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  105. Michaely, Roni & Rossi, Stefano & Weber, Michael, 2021. "Signaling safety," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 405-427.
  106. Hsu, Po-Hsuan, 2009. "Technological innovations and aggregate risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 264-279, November.
  107. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2017. "The cross-section and time series of stock and bond returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 50-69.
  108. Missaka Warusawitharana, 2011. "The expected real return to equity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  109. Dangl, Thomas & Halling, Michael, 2012. "Predictive regressions with time-varying coefficients," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 157-181.
  110. Park, Cheolbeom, 2010. "When does the dividend-price ratio predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 81-101, January.
  111. Giulia Dal Pra & Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio & Fabiola Vasile, 2016. "Do Regimes in Excess Stock Return Predictability Create Economic Value? An Out-of-Sample Portfolio Analysis," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1637, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  112. Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016. "Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators unstable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1193-1207.
  113. Victoria Atanasov & Stig V. Møller & Richard Priestley, 2020. "Consumption Fluctuations and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(3), pages 1677-1713, June.
  114. Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2016. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Time-Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 22831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  115. Alexandridis, Antonios K. & Apergis, Iraklis & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Voukelatos, Nikolaos, 2023. "Equity premium prediction: The role of information from the options market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  116. Jonathan Iworiso & Spyridon Vrontos, 2020. "On the directional predictability of equity premium using machine learning techniques," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 449-469, April.
  117. Verdickt, Gertjan, 2020. "Is fertility a leading indicator for stock returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
  118. Tomás Caravello & Turalay Kenc & Martín Sola, 2021. "Risk Aversion and Changes in Regime," Department of Economics Working Papers 2021_08, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  119. Andrea Tamoni & Arie E.Gozluklu & Carlo A.Favero, 2008. "Demographics and fluctuations in Dividend/Price," Working Papers 345, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  120. Bassam M. ABU-ABBAS, 2021. "The Role of Dividends on Equity Valuation: Evidence from the GCC Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 162-180, June.
  121. Luo, Shikong & Yan, Xinyan & Yang, Haoyi, 2021. "Let’s take a smooth break: Stock return predictability revisited," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 300-314.
  122. Francisco Gomes & Alexander Michaelides & Yuxin Zhang, 2022. "Tactical Target Date Funds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(4), pages 3047-3070, April.
  123. Alex Hsu & Francisco J. Palomino & Charles Qian, 2017. "The Decline in Asset Return Predictability and Macroeconomic Volatility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-050, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  124. Jiawen Xu & Pierre Perron, 2015. "Forecasting in the presence of in and out of sample breaks," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  125. Jules van Binsbergen & Michael Brandt & Ralph Koijen, 2012. "On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1596-1618, June.
  126. Devpura, Neluka & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2018. "Is stock return predictability time-varying?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 152-172.
  127. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2008. "The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1577-1605, July.
  128. Kaihua Deng & Chang-Jin Kim, 2015. "Predicting Stock Returns — The Information Content Of Predictors Across Horizons," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-27, December.
  129. Yoontae Jeon & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2017. "Time-Varying Window Length for Correlation Forecasts," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-29, December.
  130. Jiang, Danling, 2013. "The second moment matters! Cross-sectional dispersion of firm valuations and expected returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3974-3992.
  131. Helmut Herwartz & Fang Xu, 2020. "Low Mortgage Rates and Securitization: A Distinct Perspective on the US Housing Boom," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(1), pages 164-190, January.
  132. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2011. "Predictability of Returns and Cash Flows," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 467-491, December.
  133. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Ahmed, Huson Ali & Narayan, Seema, 2017. "Can investors gain from investing in certain sectors?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 160-177.
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