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Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity Based, Multivariate Point Process Models

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Cited by:

  1. Maxime Morariu-Patrichi & Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2018. "State-dependent Hawkes processes and their application to limit order book modelling," Papers 1809.08060, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
  2. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00777941 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Rachele Foschi & Francesca Lilla & Cecilia Mancini, 2020. "Warnings about future jumps: properties of the exponential Hawkes model," Working Papers 13/2020, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  4. Katarzyna Bień-Barkowska, 2014. "“Every move you make, every step you take, I’ll be watching you” – the quest for hidden orders in the interbank FX spot market," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 45(3), pages 197-224.
  5. Adam Clements & Yin Liao, 2014. "The role in index jumps and cojumps in forecasting stock index volatility: Evidence from the Dow Jones index," NCER Working Paper Series 101, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  6. Ioane Muni Toke & Fabrizio Pomponio, 2012. "Modelling Trades-Through in a Limit Order Book Using Hawkes Processes," Post-Print hal-00745554, HAL.
  7. Bowsher, Clive G., 2007. "Modelling security market events in continuous time: Intensity based, multivariate point process models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 876-912, December.
  8. Anthony D. Hall & Nikolaus Hautsch, 2008. "Order aggressiveness and order book dynamics," Studies in Empirical Economics, in: Luc Bauwens & Winfried Pohlmeier & David Veredas (ed.), High Frequency Financial Econometrics, pages 133-165, Springer.
  9. Kramer, Anke & Kiesel, Rüdiger, 2021. "Exogenous factors for order arrivals on the intraday electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
  10. Toke, Ioane Muni & Pomponio, Fabrizio, 2011. "Modelling trades-through in a limited order book using Hawkes processes," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-32, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  11. Qi Guo & Bruno Remillard & Anatoliy Swishchuk, 2020. "Multivariate General Compound Point Processes in Limit Order Books," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-20, September.
  12. Ioane Muni Toke, 2016. "Reconstruction of Order Flows using Aggregated Data," Post-Print hal-01705074, HAL.
  13. Chen, Zezhun & Dassios, Angelos, 2022. "Cluster point processes and Poisson thinning INARMA," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113652, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  14. Luc, BAUWENS & Nikolaus, HAUTSCH, 2006. "Modelling Financial High Frequency Data Using Point Processes," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006039, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  15. Jeremy Large, 2004. "Cancellation and uncertainty aversion on limit order books," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe04, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  16. Fuentes, Fernanda & Herrera, Rodrigo & Clements, Adam, 2018. "Modeling extreme risks in commodities and commodity currencies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 108-120.
  17. Xiaofei Lu & Frédéric Abergel, 2017. "Limit order book modelling with high dimensional Hawkes processes," Working Papers hal-01512430, HAL.
  18. Roueff, Francois & von Sachs, Rainer & Sansonnet, Laure, 2015. "Time-frequency analysis of locally stationary Hawkes processes," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2015011, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
  19. Ting Wang & Mark Bebbington & David Harte, 2012. "Markov-modulated Hawkes process with stepwise decay," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 64(3), pages 521-544, June.
  20. Omar Euch & Masaaki Fukasawa & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2018. "The microstructural foundations of leverage effect and rough volatility," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 241-280, April.
  21. Pierre Perron & Eduardo Zorita & Wen Cao & Clifford Hurvich & Philippe Soulier, 2017. "Drift in Transaction-Level Asset Price Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 769-790, September.
  22. Sönksen, Jantje & Grammig, Joachim, 2021. "Empirical asset pricing with multi-period disaster risk: A simulation-based approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 805-832.
  23. Anthony D. Hall & Nikolaus Hautsch, 2004. "A Continuous-Time Measurement of the Buy-Sell Pressure in a Limit Order Book Market," Research Paper Series 121, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  24. BAUWENS, Luc & HAUTSCH, Nikolaus, 2003. "Dynamic latent factor models for intensity processes," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2003103, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  25. Wu, Zhengxiao, 2012. "On the intraday periodicity duration adjustment of high-frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 282-291.
  26. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2005. "Variation, jumps, market frictions and high frequency data in financial econometrics," OFRC Working Papers Series 2005fe08, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  27. Clive Bowsher, 2002. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-W22, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  28. Clive Bowsher, 2004. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity Based, Multivariate Point Process Model," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-W03, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  29. Lizhen Xu & Jason A. Duan & Andrew Whinston, 2014. "Path to Purchase: A Mutually Exciting Point Process Model for Online Advertising and Conversion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(6), pages 1392-1412, June.
  30. Hautsch, Nikolaus, 2008. "Capturing common components in high-frequency financial time series: A multivariate stochastic multiplicative error model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 3978-4015, December.
  31. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Huang, Xin, 2011. "A reduced form framework for modeling volatility of speculative prices based on realized variation measures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 176-189, January.
  32. repec:wyi:journl:002211 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Francine Gresnigt & Erik Kole & Philip Hans Franses, 2017. "Specification Testing in Hawkes Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 139-171.
  34. Toke, Ioane Muni & Pomponio, Fabrizio, 2012. "Modelling trades-through in a limit order book using hawkes processes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-23.
  35. Katarzyna Bień-Barkowska, 2014. "Capturing Order Book Dynamics in the Interbank EUR/PLN Spot Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 93-117, January.
  36. Kyungsub Lee, 2022. "Application of Hawkes volatility in the observation of filtered high-frequency price process in tick structures," Papers 2207.05939, arXiv.org.
  37. Ioane Muni Toke & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2020. "Marked point processes and intensity ratios for limit order book modeling," Papers 2001.08442, arXiv.org.
  38. Haghighi, Afshin & Fallahpour, Saeid & Eyvazlu, Reza, 2016. "Modelling order arrivals at price limits using Hawkes processes," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 267-272.
  39. Simon Clinet & Yoann Potiron, 2016. "Statistical inference for the doubly stochastic self-exciting process," Papers 1607.05831, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
  40. Ioane Muni Toke & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2022. "Marked point processes and intensity ratios for limit order book modeling," Post-Print hal-02465428, HAL.
  41. Hurvich, Cliiford & Wang, Yi, 2006. "A Pure-Jump Transaction-Level Price Model Yielding Cointegration, Leverage, and Nonsynchronous Trading Effects," MPRA Paper 1413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  42. Nikolaus Graf von Luckner & Rüdiger Kiesel, 2021. "Modeling Market Order Arrivals on the German Intraday Electricity Market with the Hawkes Process," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-31, April.
  43. Xiaofei Lu & Frédéric Abergel, 2018. "High dimensional Hawkes processes for limit order books Modelling, empirical analysis and numerical calibration," Post-Print hal-01686122, HAL.
  44. Wing Lon NG, 2004. "Duration and Order Type Clusters," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 272, Econometric Society.
  45. Nikolaus Hautsch & Rodrigo Herrera, 2020. "Multivariate dynamic intensity peaks‐over‐threshold models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 248-272, March.
  46. Francine Gresnigt & Erik Kole & Philip Hans Franses, 2017. "Exploiting Spillovers to Forecast Crashes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(8), pages 936-955, December.
  47. Gao, Xuefeng & Zhu, Lingjiong, 2018. "Limit theorems for Markovian Hawkes processes with a large initial intensity," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 128(11), pages 3807-3839.
  48. Ulrich Horst & Wei Xu & Rouyi Zhang, 2023. "Convergence of Heavy-Tailed Hawkes Processes and the Microstructure of Rough Volatility," Papers 2312.08784, arXiv.org.
  49. Marcello Rambaldi & Vladimir Filimonov & Fabrizio Lillo, 2016. "Detection of intensity bursts using Hawkes processes: an application to high frequency financial data," Papers 1610.05383, arXiv.org.
  50. Bilodeau, Yann, 2020. "Deep limit order book events dynamics," Working Papers 20-4, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
  51. Da Fonseca, José & Malevergne, Yannick, 2021. "A simple microstructure model based on the Cox-BESQ process with application to optimal execution policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  52. Anatoliy Swishchuk & Aiden Huffman, 2020. "General Compound Hawkes Processes in Limit Order Books," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, March.
  53. Ban Zheng & François Roueff & Frédéric Abergel, 2014. "Ergodicity and scaling limit of a constrained multivariate Hawkes process," Post-Print hal-00777941, HAL.
  54. Stindl, Tom & Chen, Feng, 2018. "Likelihood based inference for the multivariate renewal Hawkes process," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 131-145.
  55. Julio A. Crego, 2017. "Short Selling Ban and Intraday Dynamics," Working Papers wp2017_1715, CEMFI.
  56. Efstathios Panayi & Gareth W. Peters, 2015. "Stochastic simulation framework for the limit order book using liquidity-motivated agents," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 1-52.
  57. Giesecke, Kay & Schwenkler, Gustavo, 2018. "Filtered likelihood for point processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 204(1), pages 33-53.
  58. Steffen Volkenand & Günther Filler & Martin Odening, 2020. "Price Discovery and Market Reflexivity in Agricultural Futures Contracts with Different Maturities," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-17, July.
  59. Moreno Trujillo, John Freddy, 2019. "Modelo estocástico para el precio de activos riesgosos utilizando procesos Hawkes [Stochastic model for risky assets price using Hawkes processes]," MPRA Paper 101327, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  60. Choi, So Eun & Jang, Hyun Jin & Lee, Kyungsub & Zheng, Harry, 2021. "Optimal market-Making strategies under synchronised order arrivals with deep neural networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  61. Clements, Adam & Liao, Yin, 2017. "Forecasting the variance of stock index returns using jumps and cojumps," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 729-742.
  62. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered," Staff Reports 925, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  63. Yang Shen & Bin Zou, 2021. "Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection in Contagious Markets," Papers 2110.09417, arXiv.org.
  64. Ivan Jericevich & Patrick Chang & Tim Gebbie, 2021. "Simulation and estimation of a point-process market-model with a matching engine," Papers 2105.02211, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
  65. Kohler, Alexander & von Wyss, Rico, 2012. "Where does Information Processing in a Fragmented Market Take Place? – Evidence from the Swiss Stock Market after MiFID," Working Papers on Finance 1209, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  66. Angelos Dassios & Hongbiao Zhao, 2017. "Efficient Simulation of Clustering Jumps with CIR Intensity," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(6), pages 1494-1515, December.
  67. Zhu, Lingjiong, 2013. "Moderate deviations for Hawkes processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 885-890.
  68. Ioane Muni Toke, 2011. ""Market making" behaviour in an order book model and its impact on the bid-ask spread," Post-Print hal-01705266, HAL.
  69. Anatoliy Swishchuk & Aiden Huffman, 2018. "General Compound Hawkes Processes in Limit Order Books," Papers 1812.02298, arXiv.org.
  70. Zhicheng Li & Haipeng Xing, 2022. "High-Frequency Quote Volatility Measurement Using a Change-Point Intensity Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-24, February.
  71. Dassios, Angelos & Jang, Jiwook & Zhao, Hongbiao, 2019. "A generalised CIR process with externally-exciting and self-exciting jumps and its applications in insurance and finance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102043, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  72. Grames, Eliza M. & Stepule, Piper L. & Herrick, Susan Z. & Ranelli, Benjamin T. & Elphick, Chris S., 2022. "Separating acoustic signal into underlying behaviors with self-exciting point process models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 468(C).
  73. Massil Achab & Emmanuel Bacry & Jean-Franc{c}ois Muzy & Marcello Rambaldi, 2017. "Analysis of order book flows using a nonparametric estimation of the branching ratio matrix," Papers 1706.03411, arXiv.org.
  74. Ioane Muni Toke & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2020. "Analyzing order flows in limit order books with ratios of Cox-type intensities," Post-Print hal-01799398, HAL.
  75. Hyunju Lee & Ji Hwan Cha & Maxim Finkelstein, 2022. "A Preventive Replacement Policy for a System Subject to Bivariate Generalized Polya Failure Process," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-15, May.
  76. Ioane Muni Toke, 2010. ""Market making" behaviour in an order book model and its impact on the bid-ask spread," Papers 1003.3796, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2010.
  77. Volodymyr Korniichuk, 2012. "Forecasting extreme electricity spot prices," Cologne Graduate School Working Paper Series 03-14, Cologne Graduate School in Management, Economics and Social Sciences.
  78. Ye, Wuyi & Xia, Wenjing & Wu, Bin & Chen, Pengzhan, 2022. "Using implied volatility jumps for realized volatility forecasting: Evidence from the Chinese market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  79. Dassios, Angelos & Zhao, Hongbiao, 2013. "Exact simulation of Hawkes process with exponentially decaying intensity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 51370, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  80. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Thomas Robert Hurd, 2016. "Portfolio Choice in Markets with Contagion," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 1-28.
  81. Thibault Jaisson, 2015. "Market impact as anticipation of the order flow imbalance," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 1123-1135, July.
  82. Azizpour, S & Giesecke, K. & Schwenkler, G., 2018. "Exploring the sources of default clustering," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 154-183.
  83. Kyungsub Lee, 2023. "Multi-kernel property in high-frequency price dynamics under Hawkes model," Papers 2302.11822, arXiv.org.
  84. Emmanuel Bacry & Thibault Jaisson & Jean-Francois Muzy, 2014. "Estimation of slowly decreasing Hawkes kernels: Application to high frequency order book modelling," Papers 1412.7096, arXiv.org.
  85. Giacomo Bormetti & Lucio Maria Calcagnile & Michele Treccani & Fulvio Corsi & Stefano Marmi & Fabrizio Lillo, 2015. "Modelling systemic price cojumps with Hawkes factor models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 1137-1156, July.
  86. Anatoliy Swishchuk, 2017. "General Compound Hawkes Processes in Limit Order Books," Papers 1706.07459, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
  87. Thibault Jaisson, 2014. "Market impact as anticipation of the order flow imbalance," Papers 1402.1288, arXiv.org.
  88. Wheatley, Spencer & Filimonov, Vladimir & Sornette, Didier, 2016. "The Hawkes process with renewal immigration & its estimation with an EM algorithm," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 120-135.
  89. Anatoliy Swishchuk & Bruno Remillard & Robert Elliott & Jonathan Chavez-Casillas, 2017. "Compound Hawkes Processes in Limit Order Books," Papers 1712.03106, arXiv.org.
  90. Marcello Rambaldi & Emmanuel Bacry & Fabrizio Lillo, 2016. "The role of volume in order book dynamics: a multivariate Hawkes process analysis," Papers 1602.07663, arXiv.org.
  91. André A. Monteiro, 2008. "Parameter Driven Multi-state Duration Models: Simulated vs. Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-021/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  92. Dumitru, Ana-Maria & Holden, Thomas, 2019. "Quantifying the transmission of European sovereign default risk," EconStor Preprints 193632, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  93. Giacomo Bormetti & Lucio Maria Calcagnile & Michele Treccani & Fulvio Corsi & Stefano Marmi & Fabrizio Lillo, 2013. "Modelling systemic price cojumps with Hawkes factor models," Papers 1301.6141, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2013.
  94. Hainaut, Donatien & Goutte, Stephane, 2018. "A switching microstructure model for stock prices," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2018014, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
  95. Xuefeng Gao & Lingjiong Zhu, 2018. "Functional central limit theorems for stationary Hawkes processes and application to infinite-server queues," Queueing Systems: Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 90(1), pages 161-206, October.
  96. Gao, Jiti & Kim, Nam Hyun & Saart, Patrick W., 2015. "A misspecification test for multiplicative error models of non-negative time series processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(2), pages 346-359.
  97. El Euch Omar & Fukasawa Masaaki & Rosenbaum Mathieu, 2016. "The microstructural foundations of leverage effect and rough volatility," Papers 1609.05177, arXiv.org.
  98. Lee, Kyungsub & Seo, Byoung Ki, 2017. "Marked Hawkes process modeling of price dynamics and volatility estimation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 174-200.
  99. Achraf Bahamou & Maud Doumergue & Philippe Donnat, 2019. "Hawkes processes for credit indices time series analysis: How random are trades arrival times?," Papers 1902.03714, arXiv.org.
  100. Grothe, Oliver & Korniichuk, Volodymyr & Manner, Hans, 2014. "Modeling multivariate extreme events using self-exciting point processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 269-289.
  101. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Cacho-Diaz, Julio & Laeven, Roger J.A., 2015. "Modeling financial contagion using mutually exciting jump processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 585-606.
  102. Clements, A.E. & Herrera, R. & Hurn, A.S., 2015. "Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 383-393.
  103. Angelos Dassios & Jiwook Jang & Hongbiao Zhao, 2019. "A Generalised CIR Process with Externally-Exciting and Self-Exciting Jumps and Its Applications in Insurance and Finance," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-18, October.
  104. Xuefeng Gao & Xiang Zhou & Lingjiong Zhu, 2017. "Transform Analysis for Hawkes Processes with Applications in Dark Pool Trading," Papers 1710.01452, arXiv.org.
  105. Fan, Lina & Yang, Hao & Zhai, Jia & Zhang, Xiaotao, 2023. "Forecasting stock volatility during the stock market crash period: The role of Hawkes process," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
  106. Hai-Chuan Xu & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2020. "Modeling aggressive market order placements with Hawkes factor models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, January.
  107. D’Amico, Guglielmo & Petroni, Filippo, 2018. "Copula based multivariate semi-Markov models with applications in high-frequency finance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(2), pages 765-777.
  108. Ioane Muni Toke, 2016. "Reconstruction of Order Flows using Aggregated Data," Papers 1604.02759, arXiv.org.
  109. Hyun Jin Jang & Kiseop Lee & Kyungsub Lee, 2020. "Systemic risk in market microstructure of crude oil and gasoline futures prices: A Hawkes flocking model approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 247-275, February.
  110. Lee, Kyungsub & Seo, Byoung Ki, 2017. "Modeling microstructure price dynamics with symmetric Hawkes and diffusion model using ultra-high-frequency stock data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 154-183.
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  133. Anatoliy Swishchuk, 2021. "Modelling of Limit Order Books by General Compound Hawkes Processes with Implementations," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 399-428, March.
  134. Ban Zheng & Franc{c}ois Roueff & Fr'ed'eric Abergel, 2013. "Ergodicity and scaling limit of a constrained multivariate Hawkes process," Papers 1301.5007, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2014.
  135. Angelos Dassios & Hongbiao Zhao, 2017. "A Generalized Contagion Process With An Application To Credit Risk," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(01), pages 1-33, February.
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  140. Dassios, Angelos & Zhao, Hongbiao, 2017. "Efficient simulation of clustering jumps with CIR intensity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 74205, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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