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Citations for "Generalizing the Taylor Principle"

by Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper

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  1. Foerster, Andrew & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2013. "Perturbation methods for Markov-switching DSGE models," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2013-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Kumhof, Michael & Rancière, Romain, 2011. "Inequality, Leverage and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 8179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Troy Davig & Eric Leeper, 2009. "Reply to "Generalizing the Taylor principle": a comment," Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City RWP 09-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  4. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-032, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  5. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2012. "Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-041, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  6. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions and Fiscal Stimulus," NBER Working Papers 15133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2004-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  8. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2014. "Estimation and Solution of Models with Expectations and Structural Changes," CAMA Working Papers 2014-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  9. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2011. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2166.
  10. Roger E. A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006. "Indeterminacy in a Forward Looking Regime Switching Model," NBER Working Papers 12540, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Stehn, Sven Jari & Vines, David, 2008. "Debt Stabilisation Bias and the Taylor Principle: Optimal Policy in a New Keynesian Model with Government Debt and Inflation Persistence," CEPR Discussion Papers 6696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 341-70, February.
  13. L. Baele & G. Bekaert & S. Cho & K. Inghelbrecht & A. Moreno, 2013. "Macroeconomic Regimes," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration 13/870, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  14. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2010. "Fortune or Virtue: Time-Variant Volatilities Versus Parameter Drifting in U.S. Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 7813, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Francesco Bianchi, 2009. "Regime Switches, Agents’ Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," 2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 198, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. Andreasen, Martin, 2011. "An estimated DSGE model: explaining variation in term premia," Bank of England working papers 441, Bank of England.
  17. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Alexander Richter & Nathaniel Throckmorton, 2013. "Global dynamics at the zero lower bound," Working Papers 2013-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  18. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2013. "The Effects of the saving and banking glut on the U.S. economy," Staff Reports 648, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  19. Leonardo Melosi & Francesco Bianchi, 2012. "Inflationary Sentiments and Monetary Policy Communcation," 2012 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 893, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  20. Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Anchors Away: How Fiscal Policy Can Undermine the Taylor Principle," NBER Working Papers 15514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian, 2014. "Indeterminacy and Learning: An Analysis of Monetary Policy in the Great Inflation," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 14-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  22. Majuca, Ruperto P., 2011. "An Estimated (Closed Economy) Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for the Philippines: Are There Credibility Gains from Committing to an Inflation Targeting Rule?," Discussion Papers DP 2011-04, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
  23. Dongho Song, 2014. "Bond Market Exposures to Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Risks," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  24. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2013. "How Optimal is US Monetary Policy?," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers, University of Stirling, Division of Economics 2013-05, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
  25. Marcelo Ferman, 2011. "Switching Monetary Policy Regimes and the Nominal Term Structure," FMG Discussion Papers, Financial Markets Group dp678, Financial Markets Group.
  26. Vasco Cúrdia & Daria Finocchiaro, 2013. "Monetary regime change and business cycles," Working Paper Series 2013-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  27. Eo, Yunjong, 2008. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models with Regime Switching," MPRA Paper 13910, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Feb 2009.
  28. Davig, Troy & Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B., 2010. ""Unfunded liabilities" and uncertain fiscal financing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 600-619, July.
  29. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302 Elsevier.
  30. Adam Cagliarini & Mariano Kulish, 2013. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models with Predictable Structural Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 328-336, March.
  31. Eric M. Leeper, 2010. "Monetary science, fiscal alchemy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 361-434.
  32. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2011. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 17182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Frenkel, Michael & Lis, Eliza M. & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. "Has the economic crisis of 2007-2009 changed the expectation formation process in the Euro area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1808-1814, July.
  34. Bianchi, Francesco & Melosi, Leonardo, 2013. "Modeling the Evolution of Expectations and Uncertainty in General Equilibrium," Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago WP-2013-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  35. Svensson, Lars E O & Williams, Noah, 2007. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6331, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  36. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker, 2011. "Fiscal Limits in Advanced Economies," NBER Working Papers 16819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Carravetta, Francesco & Sorge, Marco M., 2013. "Model reference adaptive expectations in Markov-switching economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 551-559.
  38. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2013. "Fiscal foundations of inflation: imperfect knowledge," Staff Reports 649, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  39. Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2014. "The Zero Lower Bound: Frequency, Duration, and Numerical Convergence," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-09, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  40. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," NBER Working Papers 13409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Thanassis Kazanas & Elias Tzavalis, 2011. "Unveiling the monetary policy rule in euro area," Working Papers 130, Bank of Greece.
  42. Derek M. Lemoine & Christian P. Traeger, 2012. "Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Economics of Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 18230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Noritaka Kudoh, 2009. "A global analysis of liquidity effects, interest rate rules, and deflationary traps," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1492-1498.
  44. Alexander Mihailov, 2005. "Has More Independence Affected Bank of England's Reaction Function under Inflation Targeting? Lessons from Taylor Rule Empirics," Economics Discussion Papers, University of Essex, Department of Economics 601, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  45. Antonio E. Noriega & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2009. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Working Papers 2009-02, Banco de México.
  46. Harun Mirza & Lidia Storjohann, 2011. "Making a Weak Instrument Set Stronger: Factor-Based Estimation of the Taylor Rule," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers, University of Bonn, Germany bgse13_2012, University of Bonn, Germany.
  47. Fabián Gredig, 2007. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules and the Achievement of the Inflation Target: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile 451, Central Bank of Chile.
  48. Hirose, Yasuo, 2010. "Monetary policy and sunspot fluctuation in the U.S. and the Euro area," MPRA Paper 33693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  49. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & Andre Meier & Gernot J. Muller, 2011. "Soverign risk and the effects of fiscal retrenchment in deep recessions," Working Papers 11-43, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  50. Jess Benhabib, 2009. "A Note on Regime Switching, Monetary Policy, and Multiple Equilibria," NBER Working Papers 14770, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Tambakis, Demosthenes N., 2014. "On the risk of long-run deflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 176-181.
  52. Andrzej Torój, 2013. "Why Don’t Blanchard-Kahn ever "Catch" Flu? And How it Matters for Measuring Indirect Cost of Epidemics in DSGE Framework," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, CEJEME, vol. 5(3), pages 185-206, September.
  53. Chin, Chi-Ting & Guo, Jang-Ting & Lai, Ching-Chong, 2009. "Macroeconomic (in)stability under real interest rate targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1631-1638, September.
  54. Andrew T. Foerster, 2013. "Monetary policy regime switches and macroeconomic dynamic," Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City RWP 13-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  55. Marian Vavra, 2013. "Testing for linear and Markov switching DSGE models," Working and Discussion Papers, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia WP 3/2013, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
  56. Roger E.A. Farmer & Tao Zha & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2009. "Understanding Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models," NBER Working Papers 14710, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions for emerging market economies: The case of Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1730-1738, July.
  58. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2009. "VAR Analysis and the Great Moderation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1636-52, September.
  59. Blagov , Boris & Funke, Michael, 2013. "The regime-dependent evolution of credibility: A fresh look at Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate system," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  60. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2008. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 83-137 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  61. Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel, 2011. "Policy Rule Coefficients Driven by Latent Factors: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in an Endowment Economy," MPRA Paper 29976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  62. Andrew T. Foerster, 2011. "Financial crises, unconventional monetary policy exit strategies, and agents' expectations," Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City RWP 11-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  63. Mario Jovanovic, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Generalized Taylor Principle," Ruhr Economic Papers, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen 0334, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  64. Davig, Troy A. & Foerster, Andrew T., 2014. "Uncertainty and fiscal cliffs," Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City RWP 14-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  65. Simone Casellina & Mariacristina Uberti, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Long-term Interest Rate Dynamics: Taylor Rule Extensions," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 183-198, September.
  66. Roger E.A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Understanding the New-Keynesian Model when Monetary Policy Switches Regimes," NBER Working Papers 12965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  67. Ravn, Søren Hove, 2014. "Asymmetric monetary policy towards the stock market: A DSGE approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 24-41.
  68. Andrzej Torój, 2010. "Rationality of expectations: another OCA criterion? A DSGE analysis," Working Papers, Ministry of Finance in Poland 8, Ministry of Finance in Poland.
  69. Jeanne, O., 2012. "Fiscal challenges to monetary dominance in the euro area: a theoretical perspective," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 143-150, April.
  70. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
  71. William A. Branch & Troy Davig & Bruce McGough, 2007. "Expectational stability in regime-switching rational expectations models," Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City RWP 07-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  72. Barthélemy, J. & Marx, M., 2011. "State-Dependent Probability Distributions in Non Linear Rational Expectations Models," Working papers, Banque de France 347, Banque de France.
  73. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Francisco Muñoz, 2012. "Monetary policy decisions by the world's central banks using real-time data," Documentos de Trabajo, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. 426, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  74. Andreasen, Martin M., 2012. "An estimated DSGE model: Explaining variation in nominal term premia, real term premia, and inflation risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1656-1674.
  75. Felipe Morandé L. & Mauricio Tejada G., 2009. "Persistent Supply Shocks: A Pain in the Neck for Central Banks?," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 12(3), pages 25-58, December.
  76. Danciulescu, Cristina, 2014. "Macroeconomic equilibrium and welfare under simple monetary and switching fiscal policy rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 58-68.
  77. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2007. "Do expectations matter? The Great Moderation revisited," Economics Working Papers 1084, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2009.
  78. Blake, Andrew P. & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2011. "Optimal policy in Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1626-1651, October.
  79. Jensen, Henrik, 2009. "Estimated Interest Rate Rules: Do they Determine Determinacy Properties?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7555, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  80. Roger E. A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 608-17, March.
  81. Singh, Ajay Pratap & Nikolaou, Michael, 2013. "Optimal rules for central bank interest rates subject to zero lower bound," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-49, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  82. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Greco, Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2008. "Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation," Research Discussion Papers 20/2008, Bank of Finland.
  83. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes, 2011. "Monetary regime switches and unstable objectives," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 1036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  84. Sophie Pardo & Nicolas Rautureau & Thomas Vallée, 2010. "Optimal versus realized policy rules in a regime-switching framework," Working Papers hal-00462957, HAL.
  85. Svan Jari Stehn & David Vines, 2007. "Debt Stabilisation Bias And The Taylor Principle: Optimal Policy In A New Keynesian Model With Government Debt And Inflation Persistence," CAMA Working Papers 2007-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  86. Loisel, O., 2006. "Bubble-free interest-rate rules," Working papers, Banque de France 161, Banque de France.
  87. Sharon Kozicki & Peter Tinsley, 2005. "Term structure transmission of monetary policy," Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City RWP 05-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  88. Fendel, Ralf & Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. "'Ex-ante' Taylor rules - Newly discovered evidence from the G7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 224-232, June.
  89. Jovanović, Mario, 2012. "Empirical evidence on the generalized Taylor principle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 78-80.
  90. Edoardo Gaffeo & Ivan Petrella & Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2012. "Loss Aversion and the Asymmetric Transmission of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 12-21, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  91. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes, 2008. "The macroeconomic effect of external pressures on monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 944, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  92. Rageh, Rania, 2010. "Interest rate rule for the conduct of monetary policy: analysis for Egypt (1997:2007)," MPRA Paper 26639, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  93. Belaygorod, Anatoliy & Dueker, Michael, 2009. "Indeterminacy, change points and the price puzzle in an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 624-648, March.
  94. Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Mueller & Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier, 2012. "Sovereign Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability," IMF Working Papers 12/33, International Monetary Fund.
  95. Thanassis Kazanas & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Elias Tzavalis, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules And Business Cycle Conditions," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s2), pages 73-97, 09.
  96. ZHENG, Tingguo & WANG, Xia & GUO, Huiming, 2012. "Estimating forward-looking rules for China's Monetary Policy: A regime-switching perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-59.
  97. Lee, Hsiu-Yun & Lai, Hung-Pin, 2011. "A structural threshold model of the exchange rate under optimal intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 931-946, October.
  98. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2012. "Rational expectations, changing monetary policy rules, and real exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2824-2836.
  99. Josephine M. Smith & John B. Taylor, 2007. "The Long and the Short End of the Term Structure of Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 13635, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  100. Daniel L. Thornton, 2008. "The unusual behavior of the federal funds and 10-year Treasury rates: a conundrum or Goodhart’s Law?," Working Papers 2007-039, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  101. Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel, 2013. "Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions: Interdependent Policy Rule Coefficients," MPRA Paper 50040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  102. Sofía Bauducco & Rodrigo Caputo, 2013. "Wicksell Versus Taylor: A Quest for Determinancy and the (IR) Relevance of the Taylor Principle," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile 705, Central Bank of Chile.
  103. Moore, Bartholomew, 2014. "Monetary policy regimes and inflation in the new-Keynesian model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 323-337.
  104. Luca Benati and Paolo Surico, 2007. "Vector Autoregression Analysis and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England 18, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  105. Anatoliy Belaygorod & Michael J. Dueker, 2007. "The price puzzle and indeterminacy in an estimated DSGE model," Working Papers 2006-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  106. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
  107. Smith, Josephine M. & Taylor, John B., 2009. "The term structure of policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 907-917, October.
  108. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Yongcheol Shin, 2010. "Shifting Preferences at the Fed: Evidence from Rolling Dynamic Multipliers and Impulse Response Analysis," IMK Working Paper 16-2010, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  109. Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.