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A Scapegoat Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations

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  1. Exchange rates and scapegoats
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2012-07-20 20:02:00

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Cited by:

  1. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 786-830, June.
  2. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 72-88, January.
  3. William Branch & George W. Evans, 2007. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), pages 207-237, April.
  4. Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2016. "Exchange rate predictability in a changing world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-24.
  5. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Exchange rate risk and convergence to the Euro," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  6. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations and economic policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 148-162.
  7. Paul Stevens, 2016. "The role of oil and gas in the development of the global economy," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-175, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  8. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2022. "Exchange rate expectation, abnormal returns, and the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 1-25.
  9. Hannes Haushofer & Gabriel Moser & Renate Unger, 2005. "Fundamental and Nonfundamental Factors in the Euro/U.S. Dollar Market in 2002 and 2003," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 58-76.
  10. Cedric Tille & Eric van Wincoop, 2009. "Disconnect and Information Content of International Capital Flows: Evidence and Theory," Working Papers 102009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  11. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 552-576, June.
  12. Ben Omrane, Walid & Savaşer, Tanseli, 2016. "The sign switch effect of macroeconomic news in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 96-114.
  13. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  14. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Do Currency Markets Absorb News Quickly?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 12, pages 477-505, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  15. Lewis Vivien & Markiewicz Agnieszka, 2009. "Model Misspecification, Learning and the Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, April.
  16. Amat, Christophe & Michalski, Tomasz & Stoltz, Gilles, 2018. "Fundamentals and exchange rate forecastability with simple machine learning methods," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-24.
  17. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2020. "Fundamental determinants of exchange rate expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224617, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  18. Kim, Young Se, 2009. "Exchange rates and fundamentals under adaptive learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 843-863, April.
  19. Walid Ben Omrane & Robert Welch & Xinyao Zhou, 2020. "The dynamic effect of macroeconomic news on the euro/US dollar exchange rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 84-103, January.
  20. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Incomplete information processing: a solution to the forward discount puzzle," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  21. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R., 2008. "Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: Longer-term, non-linear orientation on PPP," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 455-467, June.
  22. Eric Hillebrand & Jakob Guldbæk Mikkelsen & Lars Spreng & Giovanni Urga, 2023. "Exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence of instabilities from time‐varying factor loadings," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 857-877, September.
  23. Beckmann, Joscha & Schüssler, Rainer, 2016. "Forecasting exchange rates under parameter and model uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 267-288.
  24. Liu, De-Chih & Chang, Yu-Chien, 2022. "Systematic variations in exchange rate returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 569-583.
  25. Joseph P. Byrne & Dimitris Korobilis & Pinho J. Ribeiro, 2018. "On The Sources Of Uncertainty In Exchange Rate Predictability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(1), pages 329-357, February.
  26. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Rational Inattention: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," FAME Research Paper Series rp156, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  27. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Regime shifts and the Canada/US exchange rate in a multivariate framework," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 206-211.
  28. Michael Frömmel & Darko B. Vukovic & Jinyuan Wu, 2022. "The Dollar Exchange Rate, Adjustment to the Purchasing Power Parity, and the Interest Rate Differential," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(23), pages 1-17, November.
  29. Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 2949, CESifo.
  30. Sensoy, Ahmet & Serdengeçti, Süleyman, 2020. "Impact of portfolio flows and heterogeneous expectations on FX jumps: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  31. Charlie X. Cai & Qi Zhang, 2016. "High†Frequency Exchange Rate Forecasting," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(1), pages 120-141, January.
  32. Schmeling, Maik, 2007. "Institutional and individual sentiment: Smart money and noise trader risk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 127-145.
  33. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "On the unstable relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 18-26.
  34. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wang, Wenhao, 2022. "Uncovered interest rate parity redux: Non-uniform effects," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 133-151.
  35. Josh Stillwagon & Peter Sullivan, 2020. "Markov switching in exchange rate models: will more regimes help?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 413-436, July.
  36. F. Pancotto & G. Pignataro & D. Raggi, 2014. "Higher order beliefs and the dynamics of exchange rates," Working Papers wp957, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  37. José Luiz Rossi Júnior & Pedro Fontoura & Marina Rossi, 2023. "Are Global Factors Useful for Forecasting the Exchange Rate?," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 13(6), pages 1-14.
  38. Joscha Beckmann & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Rainer Alexander Schüssler, 2020. "Exchange rate predictability and dynamic Bayesian learning," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 410-421, June.
  39. Beckmann, Joscha, 2021. "Measurement and effects of euro/dollar exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 773-790.
  40. Daniel L. Thornton, 2019. "Resolving the unbiasedness and forward premium puzzles," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 5-27, February.
  41. Shiu‐Sheng Chen & Yu‐Hsi Chou, 2010. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from Long‐Horizon Regression Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 63-88, February.
  42. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations since the financial crisis: Performance evaluation and the role of monetary policy and safe haven," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 283-300.
  43. Naszodi, Anna, 2010. "Testing the asset pricing model of exchange rates with survey data," Working Paper Series 1200, European Central Bank.
  44. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
  45. Fratzscher, Marcel & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2015. "The scapegoat theory of exchange rates: the first tests," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-21.
  46. Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2014. "On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-24, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  47. Abid, Abir, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and exchange rates in emerging markets: Short and long runs evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
  48. Ben Omrane, Walid & Savaser, Tanseli & Welch, Robert & Zhou, Xinyao, 2019. "Time-varying effects of macroeconomic news on euro-dollar returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  49. Michael Funke & Julius Loermann & Andrew Tsang, 2022. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in the main and the satellite Renminbi exchange rate markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 606-628, May.
  50. Barrera, Carlos R., 2010. "Redes neuronales para predecir el tipo de cambio diario," Working Papers 2010-001, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  51. Savaser, Tanseli, 2011. "Exchange rate response to macronews: Through the lens of microstructure," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 107-126, February.
  52. Lansing, Kevin J. & Ma, Jun, 2017. "Explaining exchange rate anomalies in a model with Taylor-rule fundamentals and consistent expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 62-87.
  53. Timo Henckel, 2013. "Beyond Mechanical Markets: Asset Price Swings, Risk, and the Role of the State , by Roman Frydman and Michael D. Goldberg ( Princeton University Press , Princeton , 2011 ), pp. xv + 285 ," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(287), pages 570-573, December.
  54. Park, Yang-Ho, 2022. "Informed trading in foreign exchange futures: Payroll news timing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  55. Francesca Pancotto & Giuseppe Pignataro & Davide Raggi, 2015. "Social Learning and Higher Order Beliefs: A Structural Model of Exchange Rates Dynamics," LEM Papers Series 2015/24, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  56. Beckmann, Joscha & Reitz, Stefan, 2020. "Information rigidities and exchange rate expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  57. Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2017. "Selecting exchange rate fundamentals by bootstrap," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 894-914.
  58. Paul Stevens, 2016. "The role of oil and gas in the development of the global economy," WIDER Working Paper Series 175, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  59. Pilbeam, K. & Litsios, I., 2018. "Long-run determination of the nominal exchange rate in the presence of national debts: Evidence from the yen-dollar exchange rate," Working Papers 18/01, Department of Economics, City University London.
  60. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  61. Aristidou, Chrystalleni & Lee, Kevin & Shields, Kalvinder, 2022. "Fundamentals, regimes and exchange rate forecasts: Insights from a meta exchange rate model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
  62. Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2012. "Model Uncertainty And Exchange Rate Volatility," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(3), pages 815-844, August.
  63. Dr. Fabian Fink & Dr. Lukas Frei & Dr. Oliver Gloede, 2020. "Short-term determinants of bilateral exchange rates: A decomposition model for the Swiss franc," Working Papers 2020-21, Swiss National Bank.
  64. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-71, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  65. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "Cointegration, structural breaks and monetary fundamentals of the Dollar/Yen Exchange," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(4), pages 397-412, November.
  66. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:4:p:397-412 is not listed on IDEAS
  67. Ioannis Litsios & Keith Pilbeam, 2019. "The Role Of National Debts In The Determination Of The Yen‐Dollar Exchange Rate," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1182-1195, April.
  68. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.
  69. Bhatta, Guna Raj & Nepal, Rabindra & Harvie, Charles & Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, 2022. "Testing for the uncovered interest parity condition in a small open economy: A state space modelling approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  70. Cho, Dooyeon & Chun, Sungju, 2019. "Can structural changes in the persistence of the forward premium explain the forward premium anomaly?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 225-235.
  71. David Alan Peel & Pantelis Promponas, 2016. "Forecasting the nominal exchange rate movements in a changing world. The case of the U.S. and the U.K," Working Papers 144439514, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  72. Eric Hillebrand & Jakob Mikkelsen & Lars Spreng & Giovanni Urga, 2020. "Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals: Evidence of Instabilities from Time-Varying Factor Loadings," CREATES Research Papers 2020-19, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  73. Jiahan Li & Ilias Tsiakas & Wei Wang, 2015. "Predicting Exchange Rates Out of Sample: Can Economic Fundamentals Beat the Random Walk?," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 13(2), pages 293-341.
  74. Annina Kaltenbrunner & Machiko Nissanke, 2009. "The Case for an Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime with Endogenizing Market Structures and Capital Mobility: The Empirical Study of Brazil," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2009-29, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  75. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2014. "International capital flows under dispersed private information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 31-49.
  76. S. M. Woahid Murad, 2022. "The role of domestic and foreign economic uncertainties in determining the foreign exchange rates: an extended monetary approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(4), pages 666-677, October.
  77. Fink, Fabian & Frei, Lukas & Gloede, Oliver, 2022. "Global risk sentiment and the Swiss franc: A time-varying daily factor decomposition model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  78. Lorenzo Pozzi & Barbara Sadaba, 2017. "Detecting Scapegoat Effects in the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Staff Working Papers 17-22, Bank of Canada.
  79. Joscha Beckmann & Michael Kühl, 2017. "The Role for Long-run Target Values of the Exchange Rate in the Bank of Japan's Policy Reaction Function," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(9), pages 1836-1865, September.
  80. Dick, Christian D. & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Individual exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  81. Joscha Beckmann & Dionysius Glycopantis & Keith Pilbeam, 2018. "The dollar–euro exchange rate and monetary fundamentals," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1389-1410, June.
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