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Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis

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Cited by:

  1. Jiayan YU & Jingqian ZHANG & Hee Eun SHIN & Jooan KONG, 2019. "Revisiting the Economic Crisis after a Decade: Statistical and Machine Learning Perspectives," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 14-19.
  2. Javier Bianchi & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2018. "International Reserves and Rollover Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2629-2670, September.
  3. Blum, Avinoam & Raviv, Alon, 2023. "The effects of the financial crisis and Basel III on banks’ risk disclosure: A textual analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
  4. Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Banking, debt, and currency crises in developed countries: Stylized facts and early warning indicators," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-17.
  5. Peter J. Morgan & Victor Pontines, 2018. "Financial Stability And Financial Inclusion: The Case Of Sme Lending," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(01), pages 111-124, March.
  6. Chinazzi, Matteo & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Reyes, Javier A. & Schiavo, Stefano, 2013. "Post-mortem examination of the international financial network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1692-1713.
  7. Jurevičienė Daiva & Rauličkis Darius, 2016. "Identification of Indicators’ Applicability to Settle Borrowers’ Probability of Default," Economics and Culture, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 53-64, June.
  8. Martin Bruns & Tigran Poghosyan, 2018. "Leading indicators of fiscal distress: evidence from extreme bounds analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(13), pages 1454-1478, March.
  9. Ali Namaki & Reza Eyvazloo & Shahin Ramtinnia, 2023. "A systematic review of early warning systems in finance," Papers 2310.00490, arXiv.org.
  10. Antunes, António & Bonfim, Diana & Monteiro, Nuno & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2018. "Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 249-275.
  11. Choi, Woo Jin & Taylor, Alan M., 2022. "Precaution versus mercantilism: Reserve accumulation, capital controls, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  12. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2020. "Forecasting financial stress indices in Korea: a factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2859-2898, December.
  13. Prabheesh, K.P. & Prakash, Branesh & Vuniivi, Viliame, 2023. "Assessment of Fiji’s exchange rate," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1282-1305.
  14. Kathleen Weiss Hanley & Gerard Hoberg, 2019. "Dynamic Interpretation of Emerging Risks in the Financial Sector," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(12), pages 4543-4603.
  15. Claudia M. Buch & Sandra Eickmeier & Esteban Prieto, 2014. "Macroeconomic Factors and Microlevel Bank Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 715-751, June.
  16. Chen Ray-Bing & Lee Kuo-Jung & Chen Yi-Chi & Chu Chi-Hsiang, 2017. "On the determinants of the 2008 financial crisis: a Bayesian approach to the selection of groups and variables," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(5), pages 1-17, December.
  17. Chin-Hong Puah, & Tai-Hock Kuek, & M. Affendy Arip,, 2017. "Assessing Thailand’s financial vulnerability: An early warning approach," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 13(4), pages 496-505, October.
  18. J. Scott Davis, 2015. "The cyclicality of (bilateral) capital inflows and outflows," Globalization Institute Working Papers 247, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  19. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2015. "Global Imbalances and External Adjustment After the Crisis," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.),Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 4, pages 105-142, Central Bank of Chile.
  20. Davis, J. Scott & Mack, Adrienne & Phoa, Wesley & Vandenabeele, Anne, 2016. "Credit booms, banking crises, and the current account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 360-377.
  21. Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017. "Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 9-35.
  22. Alessio Terzi, 2019. "The Euro Crisis and Economic Growth: A Novel Counterfactual Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 7746, CESifo.
  23. Ceballos, Francisco & Didier, Tatiana & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2012. "Financial Globalization in Emerging Countries: Diversification vs. Offshoring," ADBI Working Papers 389, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  24. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Son, Jisoo, 2023. "What Charge-Off Rates Are Predictable by Macroeconomic Latent Factors?," MPRA Paper 116880, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  25. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Tashiro, Takeshi, 2016. "Does reserve accumulation crowd out investment?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 89-111.
  26. Terzi, Alessio, 2020. "Macroeconomic adjustment in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  27. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper & Alberto Romero, 2019. "Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises with Real-Time Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 813-835, September.
  28. Bengui, Julien & Arce, Fernando & Bianchi, Javier, 2019. "A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13952, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Candelon, Bertrand & Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2014. "Currency crisis early warning systems: Why they should be dynamic," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1016-1029.
  30. Kim, Yun Jung, 2017. "Sudden stops, limited enforcement, and optimal reserves," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 273-282.
  31. Norfaizah Othman & Mariani Abdul-Majid & Aisyah Abdul-Rahman, 2018. "Determinants of Banking Crises in ASEAN Countries," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-20, October.
  32. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2015. "The Antecedents and Aftermath of Financial Crises as Told by Carlos F. Díaz-Alejandro," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2015), pages 187-217, October.
  33. John Nkwoma Inekwe, 2019. "The exploration of economic crises: parameter uncertainty and predictive ability," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(2), pages 290-313, May.
  34. Abdul Bahri, Elya Nabila & Mohd Nor, Abu Hassan Shaari & Sarmidi, Tamat & Haji Mohd Nor, Nor Hakimah, 2018. "Nonlinear Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Post Global Financial Crisis Panel Data," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(1), pages 15-30.
  35. Mirzaei, Ali & Grosse, Robert, 2019. "The interaction of quantity and quality of finance: Did it make industries more resilient to the recent global financial crisis?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 493-512.
  36. Renliang Liu & Thanasis Stengos, 2023. "What Drives Illicit Financial Flows? An Empirical Study of Trade Data Discrepancies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 371-409, April.
  37. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck, 2013. "Income distribution and current account: A sectoral perspective," IMK Working Paper 125-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  38. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  39. Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013. "Leading indicators of crisis incidence: Evidence from developed countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-19.
  40. Davide Furceri & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2021. "Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2021/018, International Monetary Fund.
  41. Kiley, Michael T., 2021. "What macroeconomic conditions lead financial crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  42. Shiv Shankar & Pushpa Trivedi, 2023. "Assessing India’s fiscal sustainability considering debt–deficit and financing dynamics," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 41-70, June.
  43. Federica Ciocchetta & Wanda Cornacchia & Roberto Felici & Michele Loberto, 2016. "Assessing financial stability risks from the real estate market in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 323, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  44. Li Zheng & Claude Baron & Philippe Esteban & Rui Xue & Qiang Zhang, 2017. "Mapping Systems engineering leading indicators with leading indicators in construction industry projects," Post-Print hal-01709556, HAL.
  45. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Ko, Kyunghwan, 2020. "Improving forecast accuracy of financial vulnerability: PLS factor model approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 341-355.
  46. Christofides, Charis & Eicher, Theo S. & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2016. "Did established Early Warning Signals predict the 2008 crises?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 103-114.
  47. Katsuyuki Tanaka & Takuji Kinkyo & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2018. "Financial Hazard Map: Financial Vulnerability Predicted by a Random Forests Classification Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-18, May.
  48. Wilms, Philip & Swank, Job & de Haan, Jakob, 2018. "Determinants of the real impact of banking crises: A review and new evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 54-70.
  49. Zhang, Xun & He, Zongyue & Zhu, Jiali & Li, Jing, 2018. "Quantity of finance and financial crisis: A non-monotonic investigation☆," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 129-139.
  50. Tom Roberts, 2017. "A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes," Staff Working Papers 17-38, Bank of Canada.
  51. Beckmann, Joscha & Boonman, Tjeerd M., 2022. "Expectations, disagreement and exchange rate pressure," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
  52. Engel, Charles, 2016. "Macroprudential policy under high capital mobility: policy implications from an academic perspective," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 162-172.
  53. Dwyer, Shane & Tan, Chih Ming, 2014. "Hits and runs: Determinants of the cross-country variation in the severity of impact from the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 69-90.
  54. Athreye, Suma & Saeed, Abubakr & Baloch, Muhammad Saad, 2021. "Financial crisis of 2008 and outward foreign investments from China and India," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(3).
  55. Chee-Hong Law & Chee-Lip Tee & Wei-Theng Lau, 2019. "The Impacts of Financial Integration on the Linkages Between Monetary Independence and Foreign Exchange Reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 212-235, April.
  56. Han-Hsing Lee & Kuanyu Shih & Kehluh Wang, 2016. "Measuring sovereign credit risk using a structural model approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1097-1128, November.
  57. Ayelen Banegas, 2016. "Predictability of Growth in Emerging Markets: Information in Financial Aggregates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1174, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  58. Anja Frommherz, 2019. "Price discovery of German index derivatives during financial turmoil," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 147-179, February.
  59. Zhu, Jiaqing, 2019. "External financial liabilities and real exchange rate jumps," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 202-220.
  60. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Alain de Serres & Filippo Gori & Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017. "Strengthening economic resilience: Insights from the post-1970 record of severe recessions and financial crises," OECD Economic Policy Papers 20, OECD Publishing.
  61. Irma Alonso & Luis Molina, 2021. "A GPS navigator to monitor risks in emerging economies: the vulnerability dashboard," Occasional Papers 2111, Banco de España.
  62. Cubeddu, Luis & Ahmed Hannan, Swarnali & Rabanal, Pau, 2023. "External financing risks: How important is the composition of the international investment position?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  63. Honda, Jiro & Tapsoba, René & Issifou, Ismael, 2022. "When do we repair the roof? Insights from responses to fiscal crisis early warning signals," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 349-367.
  64. Siroos Khademalomoom & Paresh Kumar Narayan & Susan Sunila Sharma, 2019. "Higher Moments and Exchange Rate Behavior," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 201-229, February.
  65. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
  66. Joseph P. Joyce, 2018. "External balance sheets as countercyclical crisis buffers," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 305-329, April.
  67. Mahir Binici & Aytül Ganioglu, 2021. "Net external position, financial development, and banking crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1225-1251, September.
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  69. Eswar S. Prasad, 2011. "Role reversal in global finance," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 339-390.
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  73. Nathan Lael Joseph & Thi Thuy Anh Vo & Asma Mobarek & Sabur Mollah, 2020. "Volatility and asymmetric dependence in Central and East European stock markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1241-1303, November.
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