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Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Jondeau, E. & Ricart, R., 1996. "The Expectation Theory: Tests on French, German, and American Euro-Rates," Working papers 35, Banque de France.
  2. Pan, Ming-Shiun, 2007. "Permanent and transitory components of earnings, dividends, and stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 535-549, September.
  3. Corrado Macchiarelli, 2013. "On the Joint Test of the Uncovered Interest Parity and the Ex-ante Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 519-535, August.
  4. K. Chaudhuri & S. Smiles, 2004. "Stock market and aggregate economic activity: evidence from Australia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 121-129.
  5. N. Groenewold, 2000. "Fundamental Share Prices and Aggregate Real Output," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 00-05, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  6. Caner, Mehmet, 2007. "Boundedly pivotal structural change tests in continuous updating GMM with strong, weak identification and completely unidentified cases," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 28-67, March.
  7. Bernardino Adão & Jorge Barros Luís, 1997. "Testing the expectations theory for the Portuguese yield curve," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  8. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Sanin-Restrepo, Sebastian, 2018. "The maple bubble: A history of migration among Canadian provinces," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 57-71.
  9. Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2010. "Nonparametric cointegration analysis of fractional systems with unknown integration orders," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 155(2), pages 170-187, April.
  10. Marcel Aloy & Gilles de Truchis, 2012. "Estimation and Testing for Fractional Cointegration," Working Papers halshs-00793206, HAL.
  11. Ivana Komunjer & Michael T. Owyang, 2012. "Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1066-1080, November.
  12. Owen Lamont, "undated". "Earnings and Expected Returns," CRSP working papers 345, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  13. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799, Elsevier.
  14. Kan Li & Randall Morck & Fan Yang & Bernard Yeung, 2004. "Firm-Specific Variation and Openness in Emerging Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 658-669, August.
  15. Choi, Jongmoo Jay, 1995. "The Japanese and US stock prices: A comparative fundamental analysis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 347-360, September.
  16. Vidal Fernadez Montoro, 2001. "Expectations and Behaviour of the Spanish Treasury Bill Rates Patterns in Neighboring Areas," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 5(1), pages 61-83, Summer.
  17. Darrat, Ali F. & Zhong, Maosen & Cheng, Louis T.W., 2007. "Intraday volume and volatility relations with and without public news," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2711-2729, September.
  18. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2006. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 12213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "Testing the expectations hypothesis: some new evidence for Japan," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Sep), pages 21-40.
  20. Boswijk, H. Peter & Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Rahbek, Anders & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2016. "Inference on co-integration parameters in heteroskedastic vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 64-85.
  21. repec:adr:anecst:y:2001:i:62:p:07 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Herrera, Santiago, 2000. "Determinantes y composición del endeudamiento público en Colombia," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2110, Inter-American Development Bank.
  23. Denny Lie & Anirudh S. Yadav, 2017. "Time-Varying Trend Inflation and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 42-66, March.
  24. Campa, Jose Manuel & Gavilan, Angel, 2011. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 205-228, February.
  25. Vipin Arora & Shuping Shi, 2013. "A Heterogenous Agent Foundation for Tests of Asset Price Bubbles," CAMA Working Papers 2013-35, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  26. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
  27. Isaiah Andrews & Anna Mikusheva, 2016. "Conditional Inference With a Functional Nuisance Parameter," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1571-1612, July.
  28. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2006. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 303-320, March.
  29. Kuo, Shew-Huei & Enders, Walter, 2004. "The term structure of Japanese interest rates:: The equilibrium spread with asymmetric dynamics," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 84-98, March.
  30. Guillén, Osmani Teixeira & Hecq, Alain & Issler, João Victor & Saraiva, Diogo, 2015. "Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 862-875.
  31. Antonio Diez de los Rios & Enrique Sentana, 2011. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity: A Continuous‐Time Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1215-1251, November.
  32. Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1990. "Do Stationary Risk Premia Explain It All? Evidence from the Term Struct," NBER Working Papers 3451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "U.S. Wage and Price Dynamics: A Limited-Information Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
  34. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
  35. Christoffersen, Peter F & Diebold, Francis X, 1998. "Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 450-458, October.
  36. Jian Wang, 2005. "Can Long Horizon Data Beat Random Walk Under Engel-West Explanation?," International Finance 0501002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Kunhong Kim & Viv B Hall & Robert A Buckle, 2001. "New Zealand's Current Account Deficit: Analysis based on the Intertemporal Optimisation Approach," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/02, New Zealand Treasury.
  38. Tsvetanov, Daniel & Coakley, Jerry & Kellard, Neil, 2016. "Bubbling over! The behaviour of oil futures along the yield curve," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 516-533.
  39. Dayong Zhang & Marco R. Barassi & Jijun Tan, 2015. "Residual-Based Tests for Fractional Cointegration: Testing the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6-10), pages 1118-1140, December.
  40. K. Balcombe, 2006. "Bayesian estimation of cointegrating thresholds in the term structure of interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 277-289, June.
  41. Rui Ding, 2016. "Disclosure of Downside Risk and Investors' Use of Qualitative Information: Evidence from the IPO Prospectus's Risk Factor Section," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 73-126, March.
  42. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Jondeau, E., 1999. "Modelling the French Swap Spread," Working papers 65, Banque de France.
  43. Davidson, James & Monticini, Andrea, 2010. "Tests for cointegration with structural breaks based on subsamples," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2498-2511, November.
  44. Jeremy Berkowitz & Peter Christoffersen & Denis Pelletier, 2011. "Evaluating Value-at-Risk Models with Desk-Level Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(12), pages 2213-2227, December.
  45. Angela Black & Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli, 2006. "House Prices, Fundamentals and Bubbles," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1535-1555, November.
  46. Michael Frömmel & Robinson Kruse, 2012. "Testing for a rational bubble under long memory," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 1723-1732, November.
  47. Helmut Herwartz & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2014. "In‐Sample and Out‐of‐Sample Prediction of stock Market Bubbles: Cross‐Sectional Evidence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 15-31, January.
  48. PAUL CASHIN & C. JOHN McDERMOTT, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-361, December.
  49. Chung, Heetaik & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1998. "Fundamental and nonfundamental components in stock prices of Pacific-Rim countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(3-4), pages 321-346, August.
  50. Michael S. Haigh & Nikos K. Nomikos & David A. Bessler, 2004. "Integration and Causality in International Freight Markets: Modeling with Error Correction and Directed Acyclic Graphs," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(1), pages 145-162, July.
  51. Chen, Chung & Wu, Chunchi, 1999. "The dynamics of dividends, earnings and prices: evidence and implications for dividend smoothing and signaling," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 29-58, January.
  52. Erdenebat Bataa & Dong H. Kim & Denise R. Osborn, 2007. "Expectations Hypothesis Tests in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Discussion Paper Series 0703, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
  53. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2005. "Dynamic asset allocation between stocks and bonds using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2005010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  54. Vipin Arora & Shuping Shi, 2016. "Nonlinearities and tests of asset price bubbles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1421-1433, June.
  55. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2012. "Fractional cointegration in US term spreads," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 431-434, March.
  56. Andros Gregoriou & Christos Ioannidis, 2007. "Generalized method of moments and present value tests of the consumption-capital asset pricing model under transactions costs: evidence from the UK stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 19-39, April.
  57. Bala Arshanapalli & William Nelson, 2008. "A Cointegration Test To Verify The Housing Bubble," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 2(2), pages 35-43.
  58. Gregory D. Sutton, 2000. "A defence of the expectations theory as a model of us long-term interest rates," BIS Working Papers 85, Bank for International Settlements.
  59. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2004. "The present value model of U.S. stock prices redux: a new testing strategy and some evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 208-223, May.
  60. Campbell, John Y. & Shiller, Robert J., 1988. "Interpreting cointegrated models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 505-522.
  61. Ayse Kabukcuoglu & Enrique Martínez-García, 2016. "What Helps Forecast U.S. Inflation?—Mind the Gap!," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1615, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  62. Juliano Junqueira Assunção, 2005. "Non-agricultural land use and land reform: theory and evidence from Brazil," Textos para discussão 496, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  63. Matteo Deleidi & Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2021. "Monetary policy and long‐term interest rates: Evidence from the U.S. economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(1), pages 121-147, February.
  64. Hecq, A.W. & Issler, J.V., 2012. "A common-feature approach for testing present-value restrictions with financial data," Research Memorandum 006, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  65. Ralf Brüggemann & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2005. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Empirical Results for the U.S. and Europe," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-035, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  66. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 2001. "The Case for Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 8423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  67. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Moreno, Antonio, 2012. "Uncovering the US term premium: An alternative route," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1181-1193.
  68. Brito, Ricardo D. & Duarte, Angelo José Mont' Alverne & Guillen, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho, 2004. "Overreaction of yield spreads and movements of Brazilian interest ratest," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 24(1), May.
  69. Abidoye, Babatunde O. & Marlene, Labuschagne, 2012. "The Transmission of World Maize Price to South African Maize Market: A Threshold Cointegration Approach," Working Papers 206515, University of Pretoria, Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development.
  70. repec:lan:wpaper:52032583 is not listed on IDEAS
  71. Nandwa, Boaz & Mohan, Ramesh, 2007. "A Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate Dynamics in Low-Income Countries: Evidence from Kenya," MPRA Paper 5581, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  72. Frédérique Bec & Anders Rahbek, 2004. "Vector equilibrium correction models with non-linear discontinuous adjustments," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 628-651, December.
  73. Park, Donghyun & Xiao, Qin, 2009. "Housing Prices and the Role of Speculation: The Case of Seoul," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 146, Asian Development Bank.
  74. Mercereau, Benoît & Miniane, Jacques Alain, 2008. "Should We Trust the Empirical Evidence from Present Value Models of the Current Account?," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-10, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  75. Murillo Campello & John Graham, 2007. "Do Stock Prices Influence Corporate Decisions? Evidence from the Technology Bubble," NBER Working Papers 13640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  76. Mirko Abbritti & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha & Antonio Moreno, 2016. "Term Structure Persistence," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 331-352.
  77. Adriana Cornea-Madeira & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2019. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 288-300, April.
  78. Stelios Bekiros & Christos Avdoulas, 2020. "Revisiting the Dynamic Linkages of Treasury Bond Yields for the BRICS: A Forecasting Analysis," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-28, May.
  79. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Nomikos, Nikos K., 2007. "Investment timing and trading strategies in the sale and purchase market for ships," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 126-143, January.
  80. Giancarlo Corsetti & Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2012. "What Drives US Foreign Borrowing? Evidence on the External Adjustment to Transitory and Permanent Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1062-1092, April.
  81. Chris Brooks & Apostolos Katsaris, 2003. "Rational Speculative Bubbles: An Empirical Investigation of the London Stock Exchange," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 319-346, October.
  82. Bonomo, Marco & Garcia, Rene, 1996. "Consumption and equilibrium asset pricing: An empirical assessment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 239-265, September.
  83. Raul Anibal Feliz & John H. Welch, 1992. "Cointegration and tests of a classical model of inflation in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico, And Peru," Working Papers 9210, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  84. Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2018. "Volatility spillovers between foreign exchange and stock markets in industrialized countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 121-136.
  85. McMillan, David G., 2004. "Nonlinear predictability of short-run deviations in UK stock market returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 149-154, August.
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  88. George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin & Andy Snell, 2003. "Testing for Cointegration in Nonlinear STAR Error Correction Models," Working Papers 497, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  89. Arshanapalli, Bala & Doukas, John, 1994. "Common stochastic trends in a system of Eurocurrency rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1047-1061, December.
  90. Nélson Leitão Paes & Cássio Da Nóbrega Besarria & Marcelo Eduardo Alves Da Silva, 2018. "Bubbles In The Prices Of Housing? Evidence To Brazil?S Economy," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 118, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  91. Katrin Wesche, 1997. "The Stability of European Money Demand: An Investigation of M3H," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 371-391, October.
  92. Alberto Fuertes, 2019. "External adjustment with a common currency: the case of the euro area," Working Papers 1936, Banco de España.
  93. Williams, I., 1996. "Investment specificity, vertical integration and market foreclosure," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9615, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  94. Jondeau, Eric & Ricart, Roland, 1999. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: tests on US, German, French, and UK Euro-rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 725-750, October.
  95. Federico Bonetto & Vinod Cheriyan & Anton J. Kleywegt, 2017. "Models of Investor Forecasting Behavior — Experimental Evidence," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-41, December.
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  97. George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin & Andy Snell, 2003. "Testing for Cointegration in Nonlinear STAR Error Correction Models," Working Papers 497, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
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  99. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  102. David G. McMillan, 2010. "Present Value Model, Bubbles and Returns Predictability: Sector‐Level Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5‐6), pages 668-686, June.
  103. Duvivier, Romain & Gaspart, Frederic & Frahan, Bruno Henry de, 2005. "A Panel Data Analysis of the Determinants of Farmland Price: An Application to the Effects of the 1992 Cap Reform in Belgium," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24577, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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  130. Engsted, Tom & Hviid, Simon J. & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2016. "Explosive bubbles in house prices? Evidence from the OECD countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 14-25.
  131. Alain Durré & Pierre Giot, 2007. "An International Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3‐4), pages 613-641, April.
  132. Dimitris Georgoutsos & Georgios Kouretas, 2004. "A Multivariate I(2) cointegration analysis of German hyperinflation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 29-41.
  133. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost, 2019. "Policy News and Stock Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 25720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  135. Ram Bhar, 1994. "Yield Curve as a Cointegrated System: Evidence from Australian Treasury Securities," Working Paper Series 35, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
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  137. Karsten Schweikert, 2022. "Detecting Multiple Structural Breaks in Systems of Linear Regression Equations with Integrated and Stationary Regressors," Papers 2201.05430, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
  138. Hoffman, Dennis L. & Rasche, Robert H. & Tieslau, Margie A., 1995. "The stability of long-run money demand in five industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 317-339, April.
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