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Citations for "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory"

by Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims

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Cited by (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.):
  1. Dong Fu, 2007. "National, regional and metro-specific factors of the U.S. housing market," Working Papers 0707, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  2. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel van der Wel, . "Dynamic Factor Models with Smooth Loadings for Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-041/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," Working Papers 284, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2003. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model. One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," LEM Papers Series 2003/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2003. "Leading Indicators for Euro-area Inflation and GDP Growth," Working Papers 235, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  6. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," IMF Working Papers 08/143, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Fabio H. Nieto & Luis Fernando Melo, . "About a Coincidente Index for the State of the Economy," Borradores de Economia 194, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Chan G. Huh, 1991. "Recession probability indexes: a survey," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 31-40. [Downloadable!]
  9. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2000. "Reference Cycles: The NBER Methodology Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 2400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Egon Smeral & Michael Wüger, 2004. "Does Complexity Matter? Methods for Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Tourism," WIFO Working Papers 225, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  12. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Artis, Michael J & Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2002. "Factor Forecasts for the UK," CEPR Discussion Papers 3119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca, 2002. "Tracking Greenspan: Systematic and Unsystematic Monetary Policy Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 3550, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li & Vivian Z. Yue, 2007. "Global Yield Curve Dynamics and Interactions: A Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Approach," NBER Working Papers 13588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. David F. Hendry & Kirstin Hubrich, 2006. "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series 589, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Christophe Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2006. "A generalised dynamic factor model for the Belgian economy - Useful business cycle indicators and GDP growth forecasts," Research series 200603-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  18. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Bernd Schwaab, 2008. "Forecasting Cross-Sections of Frailty-Correlated Default," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-029/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  19. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1990. "Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988," NBER Working Papers 3376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Liuren Wu & Frank Xiaoling Zhang, 2005. "A no-arbitrage analysis of economic determinants of the credit spread term structure," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  21. Chris Heaton & Victor Solo, 2002. "Identification and Estimation of Causal Factor Models of Stationary Time Series," Research Papers 0201, Macquarie University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  22. Bork, Lasse, 2009. "Estimating US Monetary Policy Shocks Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression: An EM Algorithm Approach," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2009-03, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies. [Downloadable!]
  23. Eric Ghysels, 1992. "On the Periodic Structure of the Business Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1028, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin, 2001. "Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Working Papers 8379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2009. "Analyzing and Forecasting Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model for Singapore," Working Papers 05-2009, Singapore Management University, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  26. Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "Factor Models in Large Cross-Sections of Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 3285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. andrés M. Alonso & Carolina Garcia-Martos & Julio Rodriguez & Maria Jesus Sanchez, 2008. "Seasonal dynamic factor analysis and bootstrap inference : application to electricity market forecasting," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws081406, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
  28. Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Rafael La Porta & Thierry A. Wizman, 1993. "What Moves the Discount on Country Equity Funds?," NBER Working Papers 4571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. B. Jungbacker & S.J. Koopman & M. van der Wel, 2009. "Dynamic Factor Analysis in The Presence of Missing Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-010/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  30. Gary D. Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1987. "Straight Time and Overtime in Equilibrium," UCLA Economics Working Papers 455, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  31. Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Lasse Bork, 2009. "Estimating US Monetary Policy Shocks Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression: An EM Algorithm Approach," CREATES Research Papers 2009-11, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  33. Necati Tekatli, 2007. "Generalized Factor Models: A Bayesian Approach," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 730.08, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC). [Downloadable!]
  34. Preston J. Miller, 1978. "Forecasting with econometric methods: a comment," Working Papers 104, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  35. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2003. "Are There Any Reliable Leading Indicators for U.S. Inflation and GDP Growth?," Working Papers 236, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  36. Christian Gourieroux & Alain Monfort & Eric Renault, 1993. "Tests sur le noyau, l'image et le rang de la matrice des coefficients d'un modéle linéaire multivarié," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 32, pages 05, Octobre-D. [Downloadable!]
  37. Stephen G. Hall & Nicholas G. Zonzilos, 2003. "An Indicator Measuring Underlying Economic Activity in Greece," Working Papers 04, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  38. Al-Sadoon, M.M., 2009. "Causality Along Subspaces: Theory," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0919, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  39. Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  40. Thomas J. Sargent, 1977. "Is Keynesian economics a dead end?," Working Papers 101, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  41. Dumas, Bernard & Harvey, Campbell R. & Ruiz, Pierre, 2000. "Are Correlations of Stock Returns Justified by Subsequent Changes in National Outputs?," Working Papers 00-2, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center. [Downloadable!]
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  42. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2006. "A Dynamic Factor Analysis of Business Cycle on Firm-Level Data," LEM Papers Series 2006/27, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  43. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1994. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  44. A.H.J. den Reijer, 2005. "Forecasting Dutch GDP using Large Scale Factor Models," DNB Working Papers 028, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  45. Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2008. "Forecasting Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model for Singapore," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0802, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre. [Downloadable!]
  46. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr. [Downloadable!]
  47. Keith R. Phillips, 1988. "The development and uses of regional indexes of leading economic indicators," Research Paper 8808, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  48. Marcelle Chauvet, 2000. "Leading Indicators of Inflation for Brazil," Working Papers Series 7, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  49. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2008. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," NBER Working Papers 14349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  50. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2006. "Generalized Dynamic Factor Model + GARCH
    Exploiting Multivariate Information for Univariate Prediction
    ," LEM Papers Series 2006/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  51. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2005. "Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 05/211, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  52. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Diffusion Indexes," NBER Working Papers 6702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  53. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September. [Downloadable!]
  54. Robert J. Shiller & Stefano Athanasoulis, 1995. "World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting International Risk Sharing Opportunities," NBER Working Papers 5095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  55. Gouriéroux, Christian & Peaucelle, Irina, 1993. "Agrégation de dynamiques de prix et modèles à facteurs à coefficients stochastiques," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9326, CEPREMAP. [Downloadable!]
  56. Mototsugu Shintani, 2003. "Nonlinear Forecasting Analysis Using Diffusion Indexes: An Application to Japan," Working Papers 0322, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  57. Robert B. Litterman, 1982. "A use of index models in macroeconomic forecasting," Staff Report 78, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  58. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2008. "The Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy: A Structural Factor Model Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7098, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  59. Álvaro Aguirre R. & Luis Felipe Céspedes C., 2004. "Uso de Análisis Factorial Dinámico para Proyecciones Macroeconómicas," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 274, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  60. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  61. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Infinite Dimensional VARs and Factor Models," IZA Discussion Papers 3206, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  62. Sumru Altug, 1986. "Time to build and aggregate fluctuations: some new evidence," Working Papers 277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  63. Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 1996. "Baynesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions," Macroeconomics 9610002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  64. Massimiliano Marcellino & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, . "Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information," Working Papers 201, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  65. Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2005. "An Overview of European Economic Indicators: Great Variety of Data on the Euro Area, Need for More Extensive Coverage of the New EU Member States," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 66-89, November. [Downloadable!]
  66. Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "Estimating vector autoregressions using methods not based on explicit economic theories," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum. [Downloadable!]
  67. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio H.Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada & Yaneth Rocío Betancourt & Juan David Barón, . "Un Indice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana," Borradores de Economia 195, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  68. Robert J. Barro & Zvi Hercowitz, 1979. "Money Stock Revisions and Unanticipated Money Growth," NBER Working Papers 0329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  69. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman, 2008. "Likelihood-based Analysis for Dynamic Factor Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-007/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  70. Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2008. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: A Dynamic Factor Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7069, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  71. Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2001. "A Core Inflation Index for the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 3097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  72. Marco Del Negro, 2001. "Turn, turn, turn: Predicting turning points in economic activity," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
  73. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2005. "Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Working Paper 2005-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  74. Domenica Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2004. "VARs, Common Factors and the Empirical Validation of Equilibrium Business Cycle Models," Working Papers 258, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  75. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Is inflation an international phenomenon?," Working Papers 2008-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  76. Bartosz Mackowiak & Frank Smets, 2008. "On implications of micro price data for macro models," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  77. Robert B. Litterman, 1982. "Optimal Control of the Money Supply," NBER Working Papers 0912, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  78. Saul Lach & Mark Schankerman, 1987. "The Interaction Between Capital Investment and R&D in Science-Based Firms," NBER Working Papers 2377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  79. Francisco J. Goerlich-Gisbert, 1999. "Shocks agregados versus shocks sectoriales. Un análisis factorial dinámico," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 23(1), pages 27-53, January. [Downloadable!]
  80. Victor Zarnowitz, 1982. "On Functions, Quality, and Timeliness of Economic Information," NBER Working Papers 0608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  81. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models versus Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 4133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  82. Robert E. Lucas, 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March. [Downloadable!]
  83. Altissimo, Filippo & Bassanetti, Antonio & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2001. "EuroCOIN: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  84. Alain N. Kabundi & Francisco Nadal-De Simone, 2007. "France in the Global Economy: A Structural Approximate Dynamic Factor Model Analysis," IMF Working Papers 07/129, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  85. Bharat Trehan, 1986. "Oil prices, exchange rates and the U.S. economy: an empirical investigation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 25-43. [Downloadable!]
  86. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2006. "Dynamic Factor GARCH: Multivariate Volatility Forecast for a Large Number of Series," LEM Papers Series 2006/25, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-26.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.