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Revisionist history: how data revisions distort economic policy research

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Robert L. Hetzel, 2000. "The Taylor rule : is it a useful guide to understanding monetary policy?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 1-33.
  2. Abo-Zaid, Salem, 2014. "Revisions to US labor market data and the public’s perception of the economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 119-124.
  3. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf, 2001. "Do provisional estimates of output miss economic turning points?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley & Luis F. Cabrera Castellanos, 2004. "Pruebas de la neutralidad monetaria a largo plazo: el caso de Nicaragua," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 407-418, octubre-d.
  5. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
  6. Tessier, Thomas H. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2015. "Decomposition of time-series by level and change," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1755-1758.
  7. Andreas Fischer & Marlene Amstad, 2004. "Sequential Information Flow and Real-Time Diagnosis of Swiss Inflation: Intra-Monthly DCF Estimates for a Low-Inflation Environment," Working Papers 04.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  8. Pierre‐Daniel Sarte, 2014. "When Is Sticky Information More Information?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1345-1379, October.
  9. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2002. "A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(5), pages 1135-1167, October.
  10. Dopke, Jorg, 2001. "Macroeconomic forecasts and the nature of economic shocks in Germany," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 181-201.
  11. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
  12. Rodriguez Mora, Jose V. & Schulstad, Paul, 2007. "The effect of GNP announcements on fluctuations of GNP growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1922-1940, November.
  13. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2003. "A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 605-617, August.
  14. Mrs. Carol S Carson & Mr. Sarmad Khawaja & Mr. Thomas K. Morrison, 2004. "Revisions Policy for Official Statistics: A Matter of Governance," IMF Working Papers 2004/087, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Luis Mario Hernández Acevedo, 2004. "Señales de política monetaria y tasas de interés en México," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 343-367, octubre-d.
  16. Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2002. "Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-2.
  17. Roland Döhrn, 2023. "Are German National Accounts informationally efficient?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 23-42, March.
  18. Christis Tombazos, 2003. "New light on the 'impressionistic view' of the balancing item in Australia's balance of payments accounts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1369-1378.
  19. Gallo, Giampiero M. & Granger, Clive W.J. & Jeon, Yongil, 1999. "The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt1w33d4b2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  20. Evan F. Koenig & Sheila Dolmas & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 618-628, August.
  21. Clements, Michael P. & Beatriz Galvão, Ana, 2010. "First announcements and real economic activity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 803-817, August.
  22. Claudia Arguedas Gonzales, 2004. "Las tasas de interés en moneda nacional y la inflación: una revisión de la Hipótesis de Fisher para Bolivia," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 325-341, octubre-d.
  23. Santiago Pinto & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Robert Sharp, 2015. "Learning About Consumer Uncertainty from Qualitative Surveys: As Uncertain As Ever," Working Paper 15-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  24. Andrew J. Filardo, 1999. "How reliable are recession prediction models?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q II), pages 35-55.
  25. Spencer David E., 2004. "Output Gap Uncertainty and Monetary Policy During the 1970s," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-20, February.
  26. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2010. "Real time data, regime shifts, and a simple but effective estimated Fed policy rule, 1969-2009," MPRA Paper 26124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  27. Seth Pruitt, 2012. "Uncertainty Over Models and Data: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 341-365, March.
  28. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  29. Pierre Siklos, 2006. "What Can We Learn from Comprehensive Data Revisions for Forecasting Inflation: Some US Evidence," Working Papers eg0049, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006.
  30. Clements Michael P., 2012. "Forecasting U.S. Output Growth with Non-Linear Models in the Presence of Data Uncertainty," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, January.
  31. Erler, Alexander & Krizanac, Damir, 2009. "Taylor-Regel und Subprime-Krise - Eine empirische Analyse der US-amerikanischen Geldpolitik [Taylor Rule and the Subprime Crisis - An Empirical Analysis of the US Monetary Policy]," MPRA Paper 18604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Perez, Stephen J., 2001. "Looking back at forward-looking monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 509-521.
  33. John S. Lapp & Douglas K. Pearce & Surachit Laksanasut, 2003. "The Predictability of FOMC Decisions: Evidence from the Volcker and Greenspan Chairmanships," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(2), pages 312-327, October.
  34. Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2010. "Learning about informational rigidities from sectoral data and diffusion indices," Working Paper 10-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  35. Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas, 2022. "An interpretable machine learning workflow with an application to economic forecasting," Bank of England working papers 984, Bank of England.
  36. Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "¿De qué forma afectan las revisiones de datos a la evaluación y conducción de la política monetaria?," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 369-405, octubre-d.
  37. Benner, Joachim & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2005. "Was leisten Stimmungsindikatoren für die Prognose des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts in Deutschland? Eine Echtzeit-Analyse," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3725, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  38. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2002. "Is macroeconomic research robust to alternative data sets?," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  39. Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "How do data revisions affect the evaluation and conduct of monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 89(Q I), pages 5-38.
  40. Cath Sleeman, 2006. "Analysis of revisions to quarterly GDP - a real-time database," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, pages 1-44., March.
  41. Gloria Lucía Bernal Nisperuza & Johanna Táutiva Pradere, 2011. "Datos en tiempo real:una aplicación a la regla de taylor en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 13(24), pages 373-394, January-J.
  42. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  43. Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Improving forecasts using equally weighted predictors," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1792-1799.
  44. Santiago Pinto & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Robert Sharp, 2020. "The Information Content and Statistical Properties of Diffusion Indexes," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(4), pages 47-99, September.
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