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Citations for "Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations"

by James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson

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  1. Charl Jooste, Guangling (Dave) Liu and Ruthira Naraidoo, 2013. "Analysing the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the South African Economy," Working Papers 351, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  2. Achim Zeileis & Torsten Hothorn, 2013. "A toolbox of permutation tests for structural change," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 931-954, November.
  3. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2008. "Testing for Granger (non-)causality in a time-varying coefficient VAR model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 293-303.
  4. Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
  5. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2013. "Multivariate Methods For Monitoring Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 250-274, 03.
  6. Kurt Hornik & Friedrich Leisch & Christian Kleiber & Achim Zeileis, 2005. "Monitoring structural change in dynamic econometric models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 99-121.
  7. Giuseppe Cavaliere & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "Testing for unit roots in the presence of a possible break in trend and non-stationary volatility," Discussion Papers 09/05, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  8. Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "A method for taking models to the data," Working Paper 9903, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  9. Antonello D'Agostino & Paolo Surico, 2012. "A Century of Inflation Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1097-1106, November.
  10. Serena Ng & Timothy Vogelsang, 2002. "Analysis Of Vector Autoregressions In The Presence Of Shifts In Mean," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 353-381.
  11. Joseph P. Byrne & Dimitris Korobilis & Pinho J. Ribeiro, 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," Working Paper Series 06_14, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  12. Catalin Starica & Clive Granger, 2004. "Non-stationarities in stock returns," Econometrics 0411016, EconWPA.
  13. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1237, CESifo Group Munich.
  14. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2004. "The reliability of inflation forecasts based on output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 201230, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  16. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6969, Paris Dauphine University.
  17. Ghosal, Vivek, 2007. "Regime Shift in Antitrust," MPRA Paper 5460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2003. "Least Squares Estimation and Tests of Breaks in Mean and Variance under Misspecification," Econometrics 0312004, EconWPA.
  19. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
  20. BAUWENS, Luc & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen VK, . "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," CORE Discussion Papers RP -2403, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  21. Berardi, Michele & Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2013. "A note on exact correspondences between adaptive learning algorithms and the Kalman filter," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 139-142.
  22. Czinkota, Thomas, 2012. "Das Halteproblem bei Strukturbrüchen in Finanzmarktzeitreihen
    [The Halting Problem applied to Structural Breaks in Financial Time Series]
    ," MPRA Paper 37072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  23. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 97-111.
  24. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, structural instability and present value calculations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 529, Society for Computational Economics.
  25. Siem Jan Koopman & Soon Yip Wong, 2006. "Extracting Business Cycles using Semi-parametric Time-varying Spectra with Applications to US Macroeconomic Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-105/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  26. Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2012. "Adaptive Forecasting in the Presence of Recent and Ongoing Structural Change," Working Papers 691, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  27. Paye, Bradley S. & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Instability of return prediction models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 274-315, June.
  28. Jörg Polzehl & Vladimir Spokoiny & Catalin Starica, 2006. "When did the 2001 recession really start?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-032, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  29. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2008. "Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple Change-Point and Mixture Innovation Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 66-77, January.
  30. Donald S. Allen & Meenakshi Pasupathy, 1997. "A state space forecasting model with fiscal and monetary control," Working Papers 1997-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  31. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  32. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "Robust methods for detecting multiple level breaks in autocorrelated time series [Revised to become No. 10/01 above]," Discussion Papers 09/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  33. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 20125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  34. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Small Sample Properties of Forecasts From Autoregressive Models Under Structural Breaks," CEPR Discussion Papers 4401, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  35. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2008. "Real-time squared: A real-time data set for real-time GDP forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 368-385.
  36. Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Lags in the response of gasoline prices to changes in crude oil," Econometrics 0406001, EconWPA.
  37. He, Changli & Sandberg, Rickard, 2005. "Testing Parameter Constancy in Unit Root Autoregressive Models Against Continuous Change," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 579, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 08 Feb 2005.
  38. Kwakwa, Paul Adjei, 2014. "Energy-growth nexus and energy demand in Ghana: A review of empirical studies," MPRA Paper 54971, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Apr 2014.
  39. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2011. "UK macroeconomic forecasting with many predictors: Which models forecast best and when do they do so?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2307-2318, September.
  40. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Ilian Mihov, 2009. "Sticky Prices and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 350-84, March.
  41. Goodwin, Barry K. & Holt, Matthew T. & Prestemon, Jeffery P., 2008. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," MPRA Paper 9684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  42. Gary M. Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Forecasting and Estimating Multiple Change-point Models with an Unknown Number of Change-points," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/31, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  43. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  44. Prasad S Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D Thomakos, 2011. "Improving forecasting performance by window and model averaging," CAMA Working Papers 2011-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  45. Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary & Strachan, Rodney W., 2010. "Bayesian forecasting using stochastic search variable selection in a VAR subject to breaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 326-347, April.
  46. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Richard Paap & Dick J.C. van Dijk, 2011. "An Alternative Bayesian Approach to Structural Breaks in Time Series Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-023/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  47. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2010. "Oil and US GDP: A real-time out-of-sample examination," Working Paper 2010/18, Norges Bank.
  48. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2001. "Short-term Volatility versus Long-term Growth: Evidence in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 08, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  49. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2004. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 04-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  50. Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem & Holly, Sean & Dees, Stephane & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 1(3), pages 1-20.
  51. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
  52. Bunzel, Helle & Iglesias, Emma M., 2006. "Testing for Breaks Using Alternating Observations," Staff General Research Papers 12694, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  53. Chew Lian Chua & Chin Nam Low, 2007. "Permanent Structural Change in the US Short-Term and Long-Term Interest Rates," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2007n22, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  54. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Working Papers 2008-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  55. Evzen Kocenda, 2001. "Detecting Structural Breaks: Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," Development and Comp Systems 0012009, EconWPA.
  56. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "G-7 Inflation Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 3283, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  57. Dees, S. & di Mauro, F. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V., 2005. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0518, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  58. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2005. "The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-31, January.
  59. Wendy Nyakabawo & Stephen M. Miller & Mehmet Balcilar & Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Temporal Causality between House Prices and Output in the U. S.: A Bootstrap Rolling-Window Approach," Working Papers 201329, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  60. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2009. "On the Unstable Relationship between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Working Papers 272009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  61. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
  62. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2004. "On the Time Variations of US Monetary Policy: Who is right?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 96, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  63. Miguel Belmonte & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2011. "Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models," Working Papers 1137, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  64. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Prior Elicitation in Multiple Change-point Models," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/26, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  65. Geweke, John F. & Horowitz, Joel L. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird's Eye View," IZA Discussion Papers 2458, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  66. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & L. Vanessa Smith, 2008. "Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs," CESifo Working Paper Series 2263, CESifo Group Munich.
  67. Malley, Jim University of Glasgow & Woitek, Ulrich, 2009. "Technology shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated hybrid RBC model," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-18, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  68. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2013. "Housing and the Great Depression," Working Papers 1301, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  69. Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-varying U.S. inflation dynamics and the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Working Paper Series 2006-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  70. Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust To Parameter Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 20-38, February.
  71. Maria Demertzis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Nicola Viegi, 2009. "Anchors for Inflation Expectations," DNB Working Papers 229, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  72. Kim, Kun Ho, 2011. "Density forecasting through disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 394-412, April.
  73. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2002. "Forecast Pooling for Short Time Series of Macroeconomic Variables," CEPR Discussion Papers 3313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  74. Marco Aiolfi & Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2010. "Forecast Combinations," Working Papers 2010-04, Banco de México.
  75. Gavin, William T. & Kemme, David M., 2009. "Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 868-879, September.
  76. Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2008. "Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting: An Illustration with German Industrial Production and Linear Models," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 57, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  77. Michele Berardi & Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2012. "On the plausibility of adaptive learning in macroeconomics: A puzzling conflict in the choice of the representative algorithm," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 177, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  78. Soosung Hwang & Steve E. Satchell & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2004. "How Persistent is Volatility? An Answer with Stochastic Volatility Models with Markov Regime Switching State Equations," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 198, Econometric Society.
  79. Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira & Luiz Ivan de Melo Castelar, 2005. "Forecasting Quarterly Brazilian Gdp Growth Rate With Linear And Nonlinear Diffusion Index Models," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 029, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  80. Cléaud, G. & Lemoine, M. & Pionnier, P.-A., 2013. "Which size and evolution of the government expenditure multiplier in France (1980-2010)?," Working papers 469, Banque de France.
  81. Alan Kirman, 2010. "The Economic Crisis is a Crisis for Economic Theory ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(4), pages 498-535, December.
  82. Siliverstovs, B. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2003. "Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear, and structural change models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-16, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  83. Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "Pessimistic beliefs under rational learning: quantitative implications for the equity premium puzzle," Working Papers 2005-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  84. Hammad A. Siddiqi, 2006. "Is it Social Influence on Beliefs Under Ambiguity? A Possible Explanation for Volatility Clustering," Microeconomics Working Papers 22279, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  85. Li, Hong, 2008. "Estimation and testing of Euler equation models with time-varying reduced-form coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 425-448, January.
  86. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2004. "Cyclical Uncertainty and Physical Investment Decisions," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 169, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  87. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," Working Papers ECARES 2009_020, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  88. Yunus Aksoy & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2007. "Non-linearities and Unit Roots in G7 Macroeconomic Variables," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0710, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  89. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier.
  90. Hendrik Kaufmannz & Robinson Kruse, 2013. "Bias-corrected estimation in potentially mildly explosive autoregressive models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-10, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  91. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2013. "Testing for unit roots in the possible presence of multiple trend breaks using minimum Dickey–Fuller statistics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 265-284.
  92. Luca Benati & Thomas A. Lubik, 2013. "The time-varying Beveridge curve," Working Paper 13-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  93. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2010. "Robust methods for detecting multiple level breaks in autocorrelated time series," Discussion Papers 10/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  94. Adom, Philip Kofi & Bekoe, William, 2013. "Modelling electricity demand in Ghana revisited: The role of policy regime changes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 42-50.
  95. Giordani, Paolo & Villani, Mattias, 2010. "Forecasting macroeconomic time series with locally adaptive signal extraction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 312-325, April.
  96. Hendry, David F., 2006. "Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 399-426.
  97. David Hendry & Grayham Mizon, 2001. "Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Policy Regime Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-W12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  98. Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2012. "Have structural changes eliminated the out-of-sample ability of financial variables to forecast real activity after the mid-1980s? Evidence from the Canadian economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(30), pages 3965-3985, October.
  99. Don Kim, 2008. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  100. Jorge Selaive ; Vicente Tuesta, 2004. "Net Foreign Assets And Imperfect Financial Integration: An Empirical Approach," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 90, Econometric Society.
  101. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model," NBER Technical Working Papers 0201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  102. Serwa, Dobromił, 2007. "Larger crises cost more: impact of banking sector instability on output growth," MPRA Paper 5101, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  103. Maheu, John M. & Song, Yong, 2014. "A new structural break model, with an application to Canadian inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 144-160.
  104. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Imperfect Information and the Expectations Channel," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
  105. Giammarino, Flavia & Barrieu, Pauline, 2009. "A semiparametric model for the systematic factors of portfolio credit risk premia," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 655-670, September.
  106. John M Maheu & Yong Song, 2012. "A New Structural Break Model with Application to Canadian Inflation Forecasting," Working Papers tecipa-448, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  107. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "A simple recursive forecasting model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 158-166, May.
  108. Julian Ramajo & Miguel A. Marquez, 1998. "Structural change in regional economies: A varying coefficients econometric modeling approach," ERSA conference papers ersa98p189, European Regional Science Association.
  109. Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2004. "Testing for Volatility Changes in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 833-839, August.
  110. Philip Rothman, 2000. "Review of Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series, by Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry," Working Papers 0016, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
  111. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2012. "Unit root testing under a local break in trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 140-167.
  112. Elliott, Graham & Muller, Ulrich K., 2007. "Confidence sets for the date of a single break in linear time series regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1196-1218, December.
  113. Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010. "Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
  114. Jean-Stephane Mesonnier & Jean-Paul Renne, 2004. "A Time Varying Natural Rate of Interest for the Euro Area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 42, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  115. Leon Berkelmans, 2005. "Credit and Monetary Policy: An Australian SVAR," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  116. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Has monetary policy become less powerful?," Staff Reports 144, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  117. DUFAYS, Arnaud, 2012. "Infinite-state Markov-switching for dynamic volatility and correlation models," CORE Discussion Papers 2012043, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  118. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Break-up of Czechoslovakia," Transition Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  119. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2003. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," NBER Working Papers 9459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  120. Iqbal, Javed, 2001. "Forecasting methods: a comparative analysis," MPRA Paper 23856, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.
  121. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  122. Agostino Consolo, 2006. "Forecasting measures of inflation for the Estonian economy," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2006-03, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Nov 2006.
  123. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Series Working Papers 78, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  124. Jean Boivin, 2005. "Has US Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data," NBER Working Papers 11314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  125. Eo, Yunjong, 2012. "Bayesian Inference about the Types of Structural Breaks When There are Many Breaks," Working Papers 2012-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
  126. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2014. "Multi-step forecasting in the presence of breaks," MPRA Paper 55816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  127. Michael A. Flor, 2014. "Post Reunification Economic Fluctuations in Germany: A Real Business Cycle Interpretation," Discussion Paper Series 324, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
  128. Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen, 2013. "Testing for Structural Breaks at Unknown Time: A Steeplechase," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 101-123, January.
  129. Craig, Lee A. & Holt, Matthew T., 2008. "Mechanical refrigeration, seasonality, and the hog-corn cycle in the United States: 1870-1940," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 30-50, January.
  130. Leandro M. Magnusson & Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2011. "Identification Using Stability Restrictions," Working Papers 1116, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
  131. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2012. "Structural Breaks and Predictive Regressions Models of South African Equity Premium," Working Papers 201209, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  132. Ahumada, Hildegart A. & Garegnani, Maria Lorena, 2012. "Forecasting a monetary aggregate under instability: Argentina after 2001," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 412-427.
  133. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Forecasting EMU macroeconomic variables," Working Papers 216, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  134. Jon Huntley & Eric Miller, 2009. "An Evaluation of CBO Forecasts: Working Paper 2009-02," Working Papers 41195, Congressional Budget Office.
  135. Kocenda, Evzen, 2000. "Detecting Structural Breaks in Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2546, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  136. repec:wyi:journl:002213 is not listed on IDEAS
  137. Mestre, Ricardo & McAdam, Peter, 2008. "Is forecasting with large models informative? Assessing the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasts," Working Paper Series 0950, European Central Bank.
  138. Carrasco, Marine, 2002. "Misspecified Structural Change, Threshold, and Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 239-273, August.
  139. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Ravn, Morten O. & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Markov Switching Causality and the Money-Output Relationship," CEPR Discussion Papers 3803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  140. Haiyan Song & Egon Smeral & Gang Li & Jason L. Chen, 2008. "Tourism Forecasting: Accuracy of Alternative Econometric Models Revisited," WIFO Working Papers 326, WIFO.
  141. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Real Sector and Banking System: Real and Feedback Effects. A Non-Linear VAR Approach," IRENE Working Papers 13-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
  142. Heather M. Anderson & Chin Nam Low, 2004. "Random Walk Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 22/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised May 2005.
  143. Raul Ramos Lobo & Miguel Juan Clar Lopez & Jordi Surinach Caralt, 1999. "Spacialisation in Europe and asymmetric shocks: potential risks of EMU," Working Papers in Economics 50, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  144. Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2006. "Persistence change tests and shifting stable autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 44-49, April.
  145. Elliott, Graham & Mueller, Ulrich K., 2004. "Optimally Testing General Breaking Processes in Linear Time Series Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt58n33447, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  146. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Osborn, D.R. & Sensier, M., 2002. "Changes in variability of the business cycle in the G7 countries," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-28, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  147. Chambers, Marcus J. & Ercolani, Joanne S. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2014. "Testing for seasonal unit roots by frequency domain regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 243-258.
  148. Norman R. Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2011. "Seeing Inside the Black Box: Using Diffusion Index Methodology to Construct Factor Proxies in Largescale Macroeconomic Time Series Environments," Departmental Working Papers 201105, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
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