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Are foreign exchange forecasts rational? New evidence from survey data

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Cited by:

  1. Stillwagon, Josh R., 2015. "Testing the expectations hypothesis with survey forecasts: The impacts of consumer sentiment and the zero lower bound in an I(2) CVAR," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 85-101.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Chinn, Menzie D, 1993. "Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 136-144, June.
  3. Jongen, R. & Muller, A. & Verschoor, W.F.C., 2012. "Using survey data to resolve the exchange risk exposure puzzle: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 148-169.
  4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2009. "Predictability in financial markets: What do survey expectations tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 406-426, April.
  6. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Are Macroeconomic Forecasts Informative? Cointegration Evidence from the ASA-NBER Surveys," NBER Working Papers 6926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Juan Jose Echavarria & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Great expectations? evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-27, December.
  8. Sarita Bunsupha, 2018. "Extrapolative Beliefs and Exchange Rate Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 84, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
  9. Ken Miyajima & Carlos Montoro, 2013. "Impact of foreign exchange interventions on exchange rate expectations," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 39-54, Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Chionis, Dionysios & MacDonald, Ronald, 2002. "Aggregate and disaggregate measures of the foreign exchange risk premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 57-84, April.
  11. Chen, Cheng & Senga, Tatsuro & Sun, Chang & Zhang, Hongyong, 2023. "Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm’s life cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 60-77.
  12. Carol L. Osler, 1989. "Interest Rate Term Premiums and the Failure of the Speculative Efficiency Hypothesis: A Theoretical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 3060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Is the foreign exchange market 'risky'? Some new survey-based results," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, January.
  14. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  15. Ahrens, Ralf & Reitz, Stefan, 2003. "Heterogeneous Expectations in the Foreign Exchange Market Evidence from the Daily Dollar/DM Exchange Rate," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/11, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  16. Boum-Jong Choe, 1990. "Rational expectations and commodity price forecasts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 435, The World Bank.
  17. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
  18. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Does foreign exchange intervention matter? disentangling the portfolio and expectations effects for the mark," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  19. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Rafael La Porta & Andrei Shleifer, 2019. "Diagnostic Expectations and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(6), pages 2839-2874, December.
  20. Rajesh Chakrabarti & Barry Scholnick, 2002. "Exchange rate expectations and foreign direct investment flows," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 138(1), pages 1-21, March.
  21. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2020. "Fundamental determinants of exchange rate expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224617, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  22. Jan Christoph Ruelke & Christian Pierdzioch & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "On the internal consistency of short-term, medium-term and long-term oil price forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2757-2765, July.
  23. Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 714-746.
  24. Levin, Jay H., 1997. "Stabilization policy, exchange rate expectations, and international transmission," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 19-40, February.
  25. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Ronald MacDonald & Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky, 2009. "Exchange Rate Forecasters' Performance: Evidence of Skill?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2615, CESifo.
  27. Hamid Baghestani, 2010. "Evaluating Blue Chip forecasts of the trade-weighted dollar exchange rate," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(24), pages 1879-1889.
  28. Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael Rebitzky & Michael Schroder, 2008. "Do dollar forecasters believe too much in PPP?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 261-270.
  29. Reitz, Stefan, 2002. "Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Expectations: Evidence from the Daily DM/US-Dollar Exchange Rate," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,17, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  30. Bernhard O. Ishioro, 2014. "The Dynamics Of Exchange Rate Expectations Formation: The Nigerian Perspective," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 23(2), pages 431-460, december.
  31. Froot, Kenneth A. & Ito, Takatoshi, 1989. "On the consistency of short-run and long-run exchange rate expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 487-510, December.
  32. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth Froot, 1990. "Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 3470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Menzie Chinn & Jeffrey Frankel, 1991. "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies," NBER Working Papers 3807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 69-100, February.
  35. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Hélène Raymond, 1996. "Les erreurs de prévision de change ont-elles des caractéristiques hétérogènes ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 125(4), pages 137-157.
  36. Macdonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 1996. "Currency forecasters are heterogeneous: confirmation and consequences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 665-685, October.
  37. Menzie Chinn & Jeffery Frankel, 1995. "More survey data on exchange rate expectations: More currencies, more horizons, more tests," International Finance 9508003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  38. Frederik Kunze, 2020. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 313-333, March.
  39. F. Pancotto & G. Pignataro & D. Raggi, 2014. "Higher order beliefs and the dynamics of exchange rates," Working Papers wp957, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  40. Imad A. Moosa, 2002. "Does the Exchange Rate Regime Affect Expectation Formation in the Foreign Exchange Market? The Case of a Currency that is Pegged to a Basket," Working Papers 0219, Economic Research Forum, revised 04 Jul 2002.
  41. Blake LeBaron, "undated". "Technical Trading Rules and Regime Shifts in Foreign Exchange," Working papers _007, University of Wisconsin - Madison.
  42. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-449, June.
  43. Josh Stillwagon, 2013. "The Excess Returns Puzzle in Currency Markets: Clues on Moving Forward," Working Papers 1313, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
  44. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2012. "The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 74-90.
  45. Kaufmann, Daniel & Mehrez, Gil & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2005. "Predicting currency fluctuations and crises: Do resident firms have an informational advantage?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1012-1029, October.
  46. Murphy, Austin, 2008. "An empirical investigation of investor expectations in the currency market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 108-133.
  47. Ince, Onur & Molodtsova, Tanya, 2017. "Rationality and forecasting accuracy of exchange rate expectations: Evidence from survey-based forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 131-151.
  48. M. Manzur, 1987. "How Much are Exchange Rate Forecasts Worth?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 87-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  49. Bates, David S., 1996. "Dollar jump fears, 1984-1992: distributional abnormalities implicit in currency futures options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 65-93, February.
  50. Hamid Baghestani & Liliana Danila, 2014. "Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Forecasting in the Czech Republic: Do Analysts Know Better than a Random Walk?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 282-295, September.
  51. Grisse, Christian & Nitschka, Thomas, 2015. "On financial risk and the safe haven characteristics of Swiss franc exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 153-164.
  52. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  53. Meher Manzur, 1988. "How Much Are Exchange Rate Forecasts Worth?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 13(1), pages 93-113, June.
  54. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Weale, Martin, 2006. "Survey Expectations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 715-776, Elsevier.
  55. Dominguez, Kathryn M. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1992. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Matter? Disentangling the Portfolio and Expectations Effects," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233167, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
  56. Markus Hertrich & Daniel Nathan, 2022. "Foreign Exchange Interventions and their Impact on Expectations: Evidence from the USD/ILS Options Market," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2022.10, Bank of Israel.
  57. William P. Osterberg, 2000. "New results on the rationality of survey measures of exchange-rate expectations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 14-21.
  58. Marey, Philip S., 2004. "Exchange rate expectations: controlled experiments with artificial traders," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 283-304, March.
  59. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, February.
  60. Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Foreign exchange: macro puzzles, micro tools," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 51-69.
  61. Francesca Pancotto & Giuseppe Pignataro & Davide Raggi, 2015. "Social Learning and Higher Order Beliefs: A Structural Model of Exchange Rates Dynamics," LEM Papers Series 2015/24, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  62. Beckmann, Joscha & Reitz, Stefan, 2020. "Information rigidities and exchange rate expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  63. Stavrakeva, Vania & Tang, Jenny, 2016. "Exchange rates and the yield curve," Working Papers 16-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  64. MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R., 2009. "Exchange rate forecasters’ performance: evidence of skill?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-10, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  65. Kladívko, Kamil & Österholm, Pär, 2021. "Do market participants’ forecasts of financial variables outperform the random-walk benchmark?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
  66. Ralf Ahrens & Stefan Reitz, 2000. "Chartist Prediction in the Foreign Exchange Market. Evidence from the Daily Dollar/DM Exchange Rate," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1683, Econometric Society.
  67. Aguirre, Maria Sophia, 1999. "Forward discount dynamics in integrated markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 87-104, January.
  68. Josh R. Stillwagon, 2015. "Can the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model Account for Traders' Expected Currency Returns?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 1044-1069, November.
  69. Otavio De Medeiros, 2005. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Brazil," Finance 0503019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  70. Josh Stillwagon, 2014. "Reexamining what survey data say about currency risk and irrationality using the cointegrated VAR," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1631-1643.
  71. M. Manzur, 1988. "How Much are Exchange Rate Forecasts Worth?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 88-18, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  72. Eun, Cheol S. & Sabherwal, Sanjiv, 2002. "Forecasting exchange rates: Do banks know better?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 195-215.
  73. Juan José Echavarría & Mauricio Villamizar, 2012. "Great expectations? Evidence from Colombia´s exchange rate survey," Borradores de Economia 9999, Banco de la Republica.
  74. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1986. "Are foreign exchange forecasts rational? : New evidence from survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 277-281.
  75. M. Manzur, 1990. "Key Issues in Exchange Rate Economics," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 90-07, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  76. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Shazali, Abu Mansor, 2011. "Survey Evidence on the Rationality of Business Expectations: Implications from the Malaysian Agricultural Sector," MPRA Paper 36661, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  77. Juselius, Katarina & Stillwagon, Josh R., 2018. "Are outcomes driving expectations or the other way around? An I(2) CVAR analysis of interest rate expectations in the dollar/pound market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 93-105.
  78. Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981.
  79. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2018. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Price Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Evidence," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics, pages 53-79, Springer.
  80. Josh Stillwagon, 2013. "Rethinking What Survey Data has to Say about the Role of Risk and Irrationality in Currency Markets," Working Papers 1314, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
  81. Jin-Kyu Jung & Michael Frenkel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2019. "On the consistency of central banks´ interest rate forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 701-716.
  82. Lee A. Smales, 2022. "The influence of policy uncertainty on exchange rate forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 997-1016, August.
  83. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F.C. Verschoor, 2017. "Heterogeneous beliefs and asset price dynamics: a survey of recent evidence," Working Paper 2017/22, Norges Bank.
  84. Bradley Jones, 2015. "Asset Bubbles: Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management," IMF Working Papers 2015/027, International Monetary Fund.
  85. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2008. "Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 438-448, December.
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