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On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads

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  1. Benítez-Silva, Hugo & Eren, Selçuk & Heiland, Frank & Jiménez-Martín, Sergi, 2015. "How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-25.
  2. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark & Schmidt, Timothy J., 1996. "The marginal income tax rate schedule from 1930 to 1990," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 117-138, August.
  3. Pierre L. Siklos & Diana N. Weymark, 2008. "Data Revisions, Gradualism, and US Inflation Pressure in Real Time," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0816, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  4. Alessi, Lucia & Elisa, Ossola & Panzica, Roberto, 2021. "When do investors go green? Evidence from a time-varying asset-pricing model," Working Papers 2021-13, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
  5. Margarita Debuque-Gonzales & Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, 2017. "Financial Conditions Indexes and Monetary Policy in Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(2), pages 83-117, Summer.
  6. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  7. Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
  8. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
  9. Johannes A. Skjeltorp & Bernt Arne Ødegaard, 2009. "The information content of market liquidity: An empirical analysis of liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange?," Working Paper 2009/26, Norges Bank.
  10. Chung, Richard & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2001. "Tests of investor cognizance using earnings forecasts of North American analysts," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 187-204.
  11. Mahmood, Farrukh, 2017. "Farrukh," MPRA Paper 79734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Jon Faust & Simon Gilchrist & Jonathan H. Wright & Egon Zakrajšsek, 2013. "Credit Spreads as Predictors of Real-Time Economic Activity: A Bayesian Model-Averaging Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1501-1519, December.
  13. Steven Ongena, 1995. "Monetary policy and credit conditions: new evidence," Macroeconomics 9503001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Franck Sédillot, 2001. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activité économique future ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
  15. Rémy Charleroy & Michael A. Stemmer, 2014. "An Emerging Market Financial Conditions Index: A VAR Approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14068, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  16. Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2002. "Did sunspot cause the Great Depression?," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,35, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  17. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  18. Berument, Hakan & Kilinc, Zubeyir & Ozlale, Umit, 2004. "The effects of different inflation risk premiums on interest rate spreads," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 333(C), pages 317-324.
  19. Haydory Akbar Ahmed & M. Wasiqur Rahman Khan, 2022. "Short-term and long-term interest rate spread’s dynamics to risk and the yield curve," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(10), pages 1-19, October.
  20. Edward N. Gamber, 1996. "The policy content of the yield curve slope," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), pages 163-179.
  21. Lorenzo Boldrini & Eric Hillebrand, 2015. "The Forecasting Power of the Yield Curve, a Supervised Factor Model Approach," CREATES Research Papers 2015-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  22. Wang, Kuan-Min & Lee, Yuan-Ming, 2009. "Market volatility and retail interest rate pass-through," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1270-1282, November.
  23. Mark Weder, 2006. "A heliocentric journey into Germany's Great Depression," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 288-316, April.
  24. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(5), pages 731-748, September.
  25. Chang Min LEE & Hahn Shik LEE, 2016. "Improving the Predictive Power of Spreads for Economic Activity: A Wavelet Method," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 65-78, December.
  26. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March.
  27. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002. "Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 185-213.
  28. Bhanot, Karan, 2005. "What causes mean reversion in corporate bond index spreads? The impact of survival," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1385-1403, June.
  29. Owen Lamont, 1997. "Do "Shortages" Cause Inflation?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 281-306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Fernando Alvarez, 1993. "Reserve Requirements: Not a Solution to the Potential Capital Inflow Problem in Cuba," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 3.
  31. Júlio Cesar Albuquerque Bastos & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2011. "Metasde Inflação E Estrutura A Termo Das Taxas De Juros - Uma Análise Dainfluência Da Credibilidade Sobre O Spread Da Taxa De Juros De Longoprazo No Brasil," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 142, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  32. Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002. "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
  33. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2014. "The forward looking information content of equity and bond markets for aggregate investments," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-24.
  34. Nippani, Srinivas & Shwiff, Steven S. & Arize, Augustine C., 2009. "A note on inventories and commercial paper yields," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 711-719, May.
  35. Rotemberg, Julio J & Driscoll, John C & Poterba, James M, 1995. "Money, Output, and Prices: Evidence from a New Monetary Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 67-83, January.
  36. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1991. "Identification and the Liquidity Effect of a Monetary Policy Shock," NBER Working Papers 3920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Andrei A. Sirchenko, 2017. "An endogenous regime-switching model of ordered choice with an application to federal funds rate target," 2017 Papers psi424, Job Market Papers.
  38. Cai, Zongwu & Ren, Yu & Yang, Bingduo, 2015. "A semiparametric conditional capital asset pricing model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 117-126.
  39. Kenneth Patrick Vincent O'Sullivan & Stephen Kinsella, 2013. "Financial and regulatory failure: The case of Ireland," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, January.
  40. Apostolos Thomadakis, 2012. "Contagion or Flight-to-Quality Phenomena in Stock and Bond Returns," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0612, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  41. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2018. "Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 199-227, February.
  42. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
  43. Kuan Min Wang, 2013. "Interest rate pass-through and illiquidity shocks in the US," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 198-217, June.
  44. Mr. Joe Crowley, 2007. "Interest Rate Spreads in English-Speaking African Countries," IMF Working Papers 2007/101, International Monetary Fund.
  45. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "The term spread as a monthly cyclical indicator: an evaluation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 79-83, January.
  46. William Roberts & David E. Runkle & Charles H. Whiteman, 1993. "Another hole in the ozone layer: changes in FOMC operating procedure and the term structure," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  47. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2015. "On The Term Structure of South African Interest Rates: Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," MPRA Paper 67681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  48. Chan Guk Huh, 1991. "Probability of recession," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr5.
  49. Dunbar, Kwamie & Jiang, Jing, 2020. "What do movements in financial traders’ net long positions reveal about aggregate stock returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  50. Rossiter, R. D., 1995. "Monetary policy indicators after deregulation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 207-223.
  51. Kwark, Noh-Sun, 2002. "Default risks, interest rate spreads, and business cycles: Explaining the interest rate spread as a leading indicator," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 271-302, February.
  52. David López-Salido & Jeremy C. Stein & Egon Zakrajšek, 2017. "Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(3), pages 1373-1426.
  53. Francis Bismans & Christelle Mougeot, 2009. "Austrian business cycle theory: Empirical evidence," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 241-257, September.
  54. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  55. JG. Gonzalez & RW. Spencer & DT. Walz, 2000. "The term structure of interest rates and the Mexican economy," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(3), pages 284-294, July.
  56. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1998. "Indicator Properties Of The Paper-Bill Spread: Lessons From Recent Experience," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 34-44, February.
  57. Stephen K. McNees & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1991. "\"Whither New England\"?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 11-26.
  58. Khurshid Kiani, 2011. "Fluctuations in Economic and Activity and Stabilization Policies in the CIS," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 193-220, February.
  59. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 221-261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  60. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2017. "When does the yield curve contain predictive power? Evidence from a data-rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1044-1064.
  61. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
  62. F. Barran & V. Coudert & B. Mojon, 1997. "Interest rates, banking spreads and credit supply: the real effects," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 107-136.
  63. Jean-Paul Pollin & Raphaëlle Bellando & Claude Jessua, 1996. "Le canal du crédit en France depuis la déréglementation financière : quelques tests exploratoires," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(3), pages 731-743.
  64. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2015. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 47-54.
  65. Theodore M. Crone & Michael P. McLaughlin, 1999. "A Bayesian VAR forecasting model for the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area," Working Papers 99-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  66. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
  67. Kuan-Min Wang, 2010. "Expected and Unexpected Impulses of Monetary Policy on the Interest Pass-Through Mechanism in Asian Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(1), pages 95-137, May.
  68. Gomez-Biscarri, Javier, 2008. "Changes in the informational content of term spreads: Is monetary policy becoming less effective?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 415-435.
  69. Chaieb, Ines & Mazzotta, Stefano, 2013. "Unconditional and conditional exchange rate exposure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 781-808.
  70. Peter Sellin, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
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  73. Jakob Fiedler & Josef Ruzicka & Thomas Theobald, 2019. "The Real-Time Information Content of Financial Stress and Bank Lending on European Business Cycles," IMK Working Paper 198-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
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  75. Lof, Matthijs, 2010. "Heterogeneity in Stock Pricing: A STAR Model with Multivariate Transition Functions," MPRA Paper 30520, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  76. Adam B. Ashcraft & Murillo Campello, 2002. "Borrowers' financial constraints and the transmission of monetary policy: evidence from financial conglomerates," Staff Reports 153, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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  78. Ivanova, Detelina & Lahiri, Kajal & Seitz, Franz, 2000. "Interest rate spreads as predictors of German inflation and business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 39-58.
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