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Identifying business cycle turning points in real time

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Cited by:

  1. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Measurement of Business Cycles," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 966, The University of Melbourne.
  2. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan, 2006. "Detection of the Industrial Business Cycle using SETAR Models," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(3), pages 353-371.
  3. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, November.
  4. Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "Identification of Slowdowns and Accelerations for the Euro Area Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(3), pages 335-364, June.
  5. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude & Ferrara, Laurent, 2015. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 3-9.
  6. Marie Adanero-Donderis & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d'accélération pour l'économie française," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(3), pages 95-114.
  7. Cheng Jiang, 2018. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-27, September.
  8. Altug, Sumru & Bildirici, Melike, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime-switching Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy Piger, 2013. "Employment And The Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(s2), pages 16-42, October.
  10. Lee, Kevin & Shields, Kalvinder K., 2011. "Decision-making in hard times: What is a recession, why do we care and how do we know when we are in one?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 43-60, January.
  11. Fok, Dennis & van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans, 2005. "Forecasting aggregates using panels of nonlinear time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 785-794.
  12. Benoit Bellone & David Saint-Martin, 2004. "Detecting Turning Points with Many Predictors through Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics 0407001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
  14. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2013. "Discordant city employment cycles," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 367-384.
  15. Ferrara, Laurent, 2003. "A three-regime real-time indicator for the US economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 373-378, December.
  16. Benoit Bellone, 2004. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Econometrics 0407002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Mar 2005.
  17. Kholodilin Konstantin A., 2005. "Forecasting the German Cyclical Turning Points: Dynamic Bi-Factor Model with Markov Switching," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 225(6), pages 653-674, December.
  18. Gamber, Edward N. & Liebner, Jeffrey P., 2017. "Comment on “How Biased are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?”," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 560-562.
  19. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2006. "The New Zealand Business Cycle: Return To Golden Days?," CAMA Working Papers 2006-21, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  20. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 3-16.
  21. Ferrara, Laurent, 2006. "A real-time recession indicator for the Euro area," MPRA Paper 4042, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
  23. Medhioub, Imed, 2007. "Asymétrie des cycles économiques et changement de régimes : cas de la Tunisie," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 529-553, décembre.
  24. Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.
  25. Lazzarini, S. G. & Madalozzo, R. C & Artes, R. & Siqueira, J. O., 2004. "Measuring trust: An experiment in Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_42, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  26. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt & Laurent Ferrara, 2012. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Working Papers hal-00693342, HAL.
  27. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2006. "Estimating probabilities of recession in real time using GDP and GDI," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  28. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2006. "Real-time detection of the business cycle using SETAR models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00185372, HAL.
  29. Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2005. "Forecasting the Turns of German Business Cycle: Dynamic Bi-factor Model with Markov Switching," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 494, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  30. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006. "The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 75-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  31. Huang, Yu-Lieh, 2012. "Measuring business cycles: A temporal disaggregation model with regime switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 283-290.
  32. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin, KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2005. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turning Points of the Belgian Business Cycle with Regime-Switching and Logit Models," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005006, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  33. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Identifying business cycle turning points with sequential Monte Carlo methods: an online and real-time application to the Euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 145-167.
  34. Kierzenkowski, R. & Oung, V., 2007. "L’évolution des crédits à l’habitat en France : une grille d’analyse en termes de cycles," Working papers 172, Banque de France.
  35. Jamol Bahromov, 2022. "Regime-switching empirical similarity model: a comparison with baseline models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2655-2674, November.
  36. Tsung-Hsien Michael Lee & Wenjuan Chen, 2015. "Is There an Asymmetric Impact of Housing on Output?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-020, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  37. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  38. Ana Beatriz C. Galvao, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487.
  39. Dias, Maria Helena Ambrosio & Dias, Joilson, 2010. "Measuring the Cyclical Component of a Time Series: a New Proposed Methodology," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 30(1), October.
  40. Al-Anaswah, Nael & Wilfling, Bernd, 2011. "Identification of speculative bubbles using state-space models with Markov-switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1073-1086, May.
  41. Charlotte Le Chapelain, 2012. "Allocation des talents et accumulation de capital humain en France à la fin du XIXe siècle," Working Papers 12-03, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
  42. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy Piger, 2013. "Employment And The Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 16-42, October.
  43. Mile Bosnjak, 2017. "Structural Change In Croatian Real Gdp Growth Rates," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 26(1), pages 205-218, june.
  44. Ana Beatriz C. Galvão, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487, May.
  45. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2003. "The 2001 recession: how was it different and what developments may have caused it?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 85(Sep), pages 23-38.
  46. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2003. "Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2003018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  47. Benoît Bellone, 2006. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 63-81.
  48. Adanero-Donderis , M. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2007. "Deux indicateurs probabilistes de retournement cyclique pour l’économie française," Working papers 187, Banque de France.
  49. James Ming Chen & Mobeen Ur Rehman, 2021. "A Pattern New in Every Moment: The Temporal Clustering of Markets for Crude Oil, Refined Fuels, and Other Commodities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-58, September.
  50. Benoit Bellone, 2004. "MSVARlib: a new Gauss library to estimate multivariate Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics 0406004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  51. Rolando Peláez, 2005. "Dating Business-Cycle turning points," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 29(1), pages 127-137, March.
  52. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2008. "Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points with Sequential Monte Carlo Methods," Working Papers 0815, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
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