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Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?

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Cited by:

  1. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
  2. Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2019. "From fixed-event to fixed-horizon density forecasts: obtaining measures of multi-horizon uncertainty from survey density forecasts," Working Papers 1947, Banco de España.
  3. Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2022. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 29-50, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  4. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Peter Hooper & Bruce C. Kasman & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Understanding the Evolving the Evolving Inflation Process," Working Papers 2007-4, Princeton University. Economics Department..
  5. De Santis, Roberto A. & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2013. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: A contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 377-404.
  6. Robert Lehmann & Antje Weyh, 2016. "Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 81-117, September.
  7. Pierre L. Siklos & Diana N. Weymark, 2008. "Data Revisions, Gradualism, and US Inflation Pressure in Real Time," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0816, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  8. Marta Bañbura & Danilo Leiva-León & Jan-Oliver Menz, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation Forecasts?," Working Papers 2138, Banco de España.
  9. Olesya Grishchenko & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2019. "Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1053-1096, August.
  10. Soojin Jo & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 436-446, July.
  11. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian & Fatma Burcu Kiraz, 2009. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1331-1363, October.
  12. Jongen, R. & Muller, A. & Verschoor, W.F.C., 2012. "Using survey data to resolve the exchange risk exposure puzzle: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 148-169.
  13. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2013. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, April.
  14. Capistrán Carlos & López Moctezuma Gabriel, 2008. "Experts' Macroeconomics Expectations: An Evaluation of Mexican Short-Run Forecasts," Working Papers 2008-11, Banco de México.
  15. Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
  16. Orazio Attanasio & Krisztina Molnar, 2017. "Euler Equations, Subjective Expectations and Income Shocks," Economics Series Working Papers 820, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  17. Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
  18. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2013. "Conditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 199-212.
  19. Meredith Beechey & Pär Österholm, 2012. "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(3), pages 55-86, September.
  20. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rupal Kamdar, 2018. "The Formation of Expectations, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1447-1491, December.
  21. Daniela Kubudi & José Valentim Vicente, 2016. "A Joint Model of Nominal and Real Yield Curves," Working Papers Series 452, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  22. Everaert, Gerdie, 2014. "A panel analysis of the fisher effect with an unobserved I(1) world real interest rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 198-210.
  23. Mary A. Burke & Michael Manz, 2014. "Economic Literacy and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1421-1456, October.
  24. Constantin Bürgi, 2020. "Expectation Formation and the Persistence of Shocks," Working Papers 2020-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Sep 2020.
  25. Jeffrey Frankel, 2007. "On The Rand: Determinants Of The South African Exchange Rate," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(3), pages 425-441, September.
  26. Brown, Jeffrey R. & Pennacchi, George G., 2016. "Discounting pension liabilities: funding versus value," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 254-284, July.
  27. Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
  28. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2021. "Measuring the slowly evolving trend in US inflation with professional forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 1-17, January.
  29. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2013. "Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-44, January.
  30. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(3), pages 867-886, August.
  31. Salisu, Afees A. & Ademuyiwa, Idris & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Revisiting the forecasting accuracy of Phillips curve: The role of oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 334-356.
  32. Magdalena Grothe & Aidan Meyler, 2018. "Inflation Forecasts: Are Market-Based and Survey-Based Measures Informative?," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 9(1), pages 171-188, January.
  33. Prüser, Jan, 2017. "Forecasting US inflation using Markov dimension switching," Ruhr Economic Papers 710, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  34. Don H. Kim, 2008. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  35. Salisu, Afees A. & Adekunle, Wasiu & Alimi, Wasiu A. & Emmanuel, Zachariah, 2019. "Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: New evidence from Westerlund and Narayan (2015) estimator with structural breaks and asymmetries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 33-56.
  36. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "Interest Rates under Falling Stars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
  37. Péter Gábriel, 2010. "Household inflation expectations and inflation dynamics," MNB Working Papers 2010/12, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  38. Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  39. Lahiri, Kajal & Zhao, Yongchen, 2015. "Quantifying survey expectations: A critical review and generalization of the Carlson–Parkin method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 51-62.
  40. Charles Engel & John H Rogers, 2009. "Expected Consumption Growth from Cross-Country Surveys: Implications for Assessing International Capital Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(3), pages 543-573, August.
  41. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of EBC DP 2011-014)," Other publications TiSEM 2b92a09f-918e-4614-978d-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  42. Nicola Gennaioli & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2016. "Expectations and Investment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 379-431.
  43. Natsuki Arai, 2016. "Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC's New Economic Projections," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 1019-1049, August.
  44. Vicente, José Valentim Machado & Graminho, Flávia Mourão, 2015. "Decompondo a Inflação Implícita," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 69(2), June.
  45. Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 305-340.
  46. Pablo Pincheira B. & Nicolás Fernández, 2011. "Jaque Mate a las Proyecciones de Consenso," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 630, Central Bank of Chile.
  47. Tomek Katzur & Laura Spierdijk, 2013. "Stock returns and inflation risk: economic versus statistical evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(13), pages 1123-1136, July.
  48. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2010. "Combining predictive densities using Bayesian filtering with applications to US economics data," Working Paper 2010/29, Norges Bank.
  49. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Predicting US inflation: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 134-158.
  50. Richhild Moessner & Feng Zhu & Colin Ellis, 2011. "Measuring disagreement in UK consumer and central bank inflation forecasts," BIS Working Papers 339, Bank for International Settlements.
  51. Ricardo Nunes, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1161-1172, September.
  52. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," MPRA Paper 26908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  53. Andrade, Philippe & Fourel, Valère & Ghysels, Eric & Idier, Julien, 2014. "The financial content of inflation risks in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 648-659.
  54. Chava, Sudheer & Gallmeyer, Michael & Park, Heungju, 2015. "Credit conditions and stock return predictability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 117-132.
  55. Juuso Kaaresvirta & Aaron Mehrotra, 2009. "Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 263-271, November.
  56. Adcock, Christopher & Bessler, Wolfgang & Conlon, Thomas, 2022. "Characteristic-sorted portfolios and macroeconomic risks—An orthogonal decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 24-50.
  57. Hartmann, Matthias & Herwartz, Helmut & Ulm, Maren, 2017. "A comparative assessment of alternative ex ante measures of inflation uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 76-89.
  58. Ehling, Paul & Gallmeyer, Michael & Heyerdahl-Larsen, Christian & Illeditsch, Philipp, 2018. "Disagreement about inflation and the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 459-484.
  59. Sarah M. Lein & Thomas Maag, 2011. "The Formation Of Inflation Perceptions: Some Empirical Facts For European Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(2), pages 155-188, May.
  60. Vasilios Plakandaras & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Informational Content of the Term Spread in Forecasting the US Inflation Rate: A Nonlinear Approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 109-121, March.
  61. Clements, Michael P., 2019. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1240-1249.
  62. Ulrich, Maxim, 2013. "Inflation ambiguity and the term structure of U.S. Government bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 295-309.
  63. Artūras Juodis & Simas Kučinskas, 2023. "Quantifying noise in survey expectations," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 609-650, May.
  64. Joshua C.C. Chan & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2012. "Time Varying Dimension Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 358-367, January.
  65. Christian Seiler, 2013. "Nonresponse in Business Tendency Surveys: Theoretical Discourse and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 52.
  66. Riccardo M. Masolo, 2022. "Mainly Employment: Survey-Based News and the Business Cycle," Discussion Papers 2211, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  67. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29, January.
  68. Kevin Lansing, 2009. "Time Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 304-326, April.
  69. Chinara Azizova & Bruno Feunou & James Kyeong, 2023. "Forecasting Risks to the Canadian Economic Outlook at a Daily Frequency," Discussion Papers 2023-19, Bank of Canada.
  70. Michael D. Bauer & Erin McCarthy, 2015. "Can we rely on market-based inflation forecasts?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  71. Lieven Baele, 2010. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2374-2428, June.
  72. Jean-Baptiste, Frédo, 2012. "Forecasting with the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence from survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 811-813.
  73. John W. Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2008. "The Calibration of Probabilistic Economic Forecasts," CIRANO Working Papers 2008s-28, CIRANO.
  74. Carlo A. Favero & Linlin Niu & Luca Sala, 2012. "Term Structure Forecasting: No‐Arbitrage Restrictions versus Large Information Set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 124-156, March.
  75. Jukka Sihvonen & Sami Vähämaa, 2014. "Forward‐Looking Monetary Policy Rules and Option‐Implied Interest Rate Expectations," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 346-373, April.
  76. Filip Novotný & Marie Raková, 2011. "Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(4), pages 348-366, August.
  77. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
  78. Yutaka Kurihara, 2016. "Can the Disparity between GDP and GDP Forecast Cause Economic Instability? The Recent Japanese Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(8), pages 155-160, 08-2016.
  79. Guimarães, Rodrigo, 2014. "Expectations, risk premia and information spanning in dynamic term structure model estimation," Bank of England working papers 489, Bank of England.
  80. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2017. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 201-213.
  81. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2009. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 375-398, June.
  82. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  83. Michael Dotsey & Shigeru Fujita & Tom Stark, 2018. "Do Phillips Curves Conditionally Help to Forecast Inflation?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 43-92, September.
  84. Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Monetary Policy Estimation in Real Time: Forward‐Looking Taylor Rules without Forward‐Looking Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 871-897, August.
  85. Lasha Kavtaradze & Manouchehr Mokhtari, 2018. "Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 302-334, April.
  86. Pedro A.C. Saffi & Carles Vergara‐Alert, 2020. "The Big Short: Short Selling Activity and Predictability in House Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1030-1073, December.
  87. Szafranek, Karol, 2017. "Flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence for an emerging, small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 334-348.
  88. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
  89. Sharon Kozicki & P. A. Tinsley, 2006. "Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation," Staff Working Papers 06-46, Bank of Canada.
  90. Dick Dijk & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel Wel & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 693-712, August.
  91. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2020. "Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Effects of COVID-19: A Real-time Analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-049, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  92. Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2018. "The impact of oil price shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 601-620.
  93. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2015. "The Evaluation of Global Accuracy of Romanian Inflation Rate Predictions Using Mahalanobis Distance," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 133-149, March.
  94. Bespalova, Olga, 2018. "Forecast Evaluation in Macroeconomics and International Finance. Ph.D. thesis, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA," MPRA Paper 117706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  95. Vijay VICTOR & Maria FEKETE FARKAS & Florence JEESON, 2018. "Inflation unemployment dynamics in Hungary – A structured cointegration and vector error correction model approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(615), S), pages 195-204, Summer.
  96. Boons, Martijn & Duarte, Fernando & de Roon, Frans & Szymanowska, Marta, 2020. "Time-varying inflation risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 444-470.
  97. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Burçin Kisacikoğlu & Jonathan H. Wright, 2020. "Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially Measured News Surprises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(12), pages 3871-3912, December.
  98. Kabukçuoğlu, Ayşe & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2018. "Inflation as a global phenomenon—Some implications for inflation modeling and forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-73.
  99. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Inflation Expectations And Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act On Their Beliefs?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(2), pages 505-536, May.
  100. Magdalena Szyszko, 2017. "Central Banks Inflation Forecast and Expectations. A Comparative Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(3), pages 286-299.
  101. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2018. "Monetary Policy Shocks, Expectations, And Information Rigidities," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(4), pages 2158-2176, October.
  102. Niu, Xiaoxiao & Harvey, Nigel, 2023. "Are lay expectations of inflation based on recall of specific prices? If so, how and under what conditions?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
  103. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2019. "Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 638-657.
  104. Yun Liao, 2017. "Machine Learning in Macro-Economic Series Forecasting," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(12), pages 71-76, December.
  105. Spierdijk, Laura & Umar, Zaghum, 2015. "Stocks, bonds, T-bills and inflation hedging: From great moderation to great recession," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-37.
  106. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  107. Andrés González & Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2009. "Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information," CREATES Research Papers 2009-03, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  108. Luis Gil‐Alana & Antonio Moreno & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2012. "Exploring Survey‐Based Inflation Forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 524-539, September.
  109. Lillian Kamal, 2014. "Do GAP Models Still have a Role to Play in Forecasting Inflation?," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(3), pages 1-12.
  110. Olivier Armantier & Scott Nelson & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2016. "The Price Is Right: Updating Inflation Expectations in a Randomized Price Information Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 503-523, July.
  111. Feunou Bruno & Fontaine Jean-Sébastien & Jin Jianjian, 2021. "What model for the target rate," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 1-23, February.
  112. Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  113. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3pot7260lh88lrfhrhvs85lh2f is not listed on IDEAS
  114. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Jing-zhi Huang, 2012. "Inflation risk premium: evidence from the TIPS market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  115. Croushore Dean, 2010. "An Evaluation of Inflation Forecasts from Surveys Using Real-Time Data," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, May.
  116. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2010. "Do Expectations Matter? The Great Moderation Revisited," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 183-205, July.
  117. Fabian Krüger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2017. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts With External Nowcasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 470-485, July.
  118. Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
  119. Baele, Lieven & Bekaert, Geert & Cho, Seonghoon & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Moreno, Antonio, 2015. "Macroeconomic regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-71.
  120. Colin Campbell & Anthony M. Diercks & Steven A. Sharpe & Daniel Soques, 2023. "The Swaps Strike Back: Evaluating Expectations of One-Year Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-061, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  121. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
  122. Fausto Vieira & Fernando Chague, Marcelo Fernandes, 2016. "A dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with forward-looking indicators for the yield curve in the US," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2016_31, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  123. Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2021. "Whose Inflation Expectations Best Predict Inflation?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(19), pages 1-7, October.
  124. Clements, Michael P, 2012. "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty : US Inflation and Output Growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 995, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  125. Ivașcu Codruț, 2023. "Can Machine Learning Models Predict Inflation?," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 1748-1756, July.
  126. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-02894262, HAL.
  127. Dan Li & Geng Li, 2014. "Are Household Investors Noise Traders: Evidence from Belief Dispersion and Stock Trading Volume," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  128. Chee Yin Yip & Hock Eam Lim & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2016. "Effectiveness of a Cluster of Determinants to Increase Economic Growth Rate: A Combined Statistical Criteria Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 728-735.
  129. Kazeem O. Isah & Abdulkader C. Mahomedy & Elias A. Udeaja & Ojo J. Adelakun & Yusuf Yakubu & Danmecca Musa, 2022. "Revisiting the accuracy of inflation forecasts in Nigeria: The oil price–exchange rate–asymmetry perspectives," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 329-348, September.
  130. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2017. "Empirical Findings on Inflation Expectations in Brazil: a survey," Working Papers Series 464, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  131. Fuest, Angela & Schmidt, Torsten, 2017. "Inflation expectation uncertainty, inflation and the output gap," Ruhr Economic Papers 673, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  132. Paul Hubert & Harun Mirza, 2014. "Inflation expectation dynamics: the role of past present and forward looking information," Sciences Po publications 2014-07, Sciences Po.
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  443. Ben Powell & Guy Nason & Duncan Elliott & Matthew Mayhew & Jennifer Davies & Joe Winton, 2018. "Tracking and modelling prices using web‐scraped price microdata: towards automated daily consumer price index forecasting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 181(3), pages 737-756, June.
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  448. Francesco Bianchi & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma, 2022. "Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(7), pages 2269-2315, July.
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  455. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
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  458. Kunze, Frederik & Wegener, Christoph & Bizer, Kilian & Spiwoks, Markus, 2017. "Forecasting European interest rates in times of financial crisis – What insights do we get from international survey forecasts?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 192-205.
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  460. Michael H. Breitner & Christian Dunis & Hans-Jörg Mettenheim & Christopher Neely & Georgios Sermpinis & Georgios Sermpinis & Charalampos Stasinakis & Konstantinos Theofilatos & Andreas Karathanasopoul, 2014. "Inflation and Unemployment Forecasting with Genetic Support Vector Regression," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 471-487, September.
  461. Marta Banbura & Andries van Vlodrop, 2018. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Time Variation in the Mean," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-025/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
  462. Gene Birz & Sandip Dutta & Han Yu, 2022. "Economic forecasts, anchoring bias, and stock returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 169-191, March.
  463. Solikin M. Juhro & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "Forecasting Indonesian Inflation Within An Inflation-Targeting Framework: Do Large-Scale Models Pay Off?," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 423-436.
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  465. Chris Heaton & Natalia Ponomareva & Qin Zhang, 2020. "Forecasting models for the Chinese macroeconomy: the simpler the better?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 139-167, January.
  466. El-Shagi, Makram, 2009. "Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts?," IWH Discussion Papers 16/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  467. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2017. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 201-213.
  468. Attanasio, Orazio & Kovacs, Agnes & Molnar, Krisztina, 2017. "Euler Equations, Subjective Expectations and Income Shocks," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 5/2017, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
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  472. Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2013. "Do professional forecasters trust in Taylor-type rules? -- Evidence from the Wall Street Journal poll," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(7), pages 829-838, March.
  473. Агамбаева Саида // Agambayeva Saida & Конурбаева Наталья // Konurbayeva Natalya, 2022. "Финансовая грамотность и инфляционные ожидания домашних хозяйств // Financial literacy and inflation expectations of households," Working Papers #2022-7, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
  474. Pablo M. Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with a Simple and Accurate Benchmark: The Case of the US and a Set of Inflation Targeting Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(1), pages 2-29, January.
  475. Monica Jain, 2018. "Sluggish Forecasts," Staff Working Papers 18-39, Bank of Canada.
  476. Pincheira, Pablo & Hardy, Nicolas, 2022. "Correlation Based Tests of Predictability," MPRA Paper 112014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  477. de Zwart, G.J. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2008. "The Inefficient Use of Macroeconomic Information in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts in Emerging Markets," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-007-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  478. Philipp Karl Illeditsch, 2018. "Residual Inflation Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(11), pages 5289-5314, November.
  479. Afees A. Salisu & Raymond Swaray & Idris Adediran, 2018. "Improving the predictability of commodity prices in US inflation: The role of coffee price," Working Papers 041, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
  480. James Mitchell & Saeed Zaman, 2023. "The Distributional Predictive Content of Measures of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 23-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  481. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2013. "Deflation Risk," NBER Working Papers 19238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  482. Yash P. Mehra, 2006. "Inflation uncertainty and the recent low level of the long bond rate," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 92(Sum), pages 225-253.
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  484. Klein, Tony, 2022. "Agree to disagree? Predictions of U.S. nonfarm payroll changes between 2008 and 2020 and the impact of the COVID19 labor shock," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 264-286.
  485. Lee, Changju & Ku, Seungmo & Cho, Poongjin & Chang, Woojin, 2019. "Explaining future market return and evaluating market condition with common preferred spread index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 921-934.
  486. Boons, M.F., 2014. "Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns," Other publications TiSEM 1ebdac58-bf37-499d-8835-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  487. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Predicting US inflation: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 134-158.
  488. Hamid Baghestani, 2017. "Do US consumer survey data help beat the random walk in forecasting mortgage rates?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1343017-134, January.
  489. Moore, Bartholomew, 2014. "Monetary policy regimes and inflation in the new-Keynesian model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 323-337.
  490. Barria, Rodrigo & Pinter, Gabor, 2023. "Mispricing in inflation markets," Bank of England working papers 1034, Bank of England.
  491. Guzman, Giselle C., 2011. "The case for higher frequency inflation expectations," MPRA Paper 36656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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