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Market efficiency and cointegration: an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets

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Cited by:

  1. Jondeau, E. & Ricart, R., 1996. "The Expectation Theory: Tests on French, German, and American Euro-Rates," Working papers 35, Banque de France.
  2. Andrew M. McKenzie & Bingrong Jiang & Harjanto Djunaidi & Linwood A. Hoffman & Eric J. Wailes, 2002. "Unbiasedness and Market Efficiency Tests of the U.S. Rice Futures Market," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 474-493.
  3. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin, 1998. "Foreign exchange market efficiency revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 831-838, October.
  4. Jui-Cheng Hung & Chien-Liang Chiu & Ming-Chih Lee, 2006. "Hedging with zero-value at risk hedge ratio," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 259-269.
  5. Panayiotis Diamandis & Georgios Kouretas, 1995. "Cointegration and market efficiency: a time series analysis of the Greek drachma," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(8), pages 271-277.
  6. Min-woo Kang, 2019. "Currency Market Efficiency Revisited: Evidence from Korea," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-17, September.
  7. Klaassen, F.J.G.M., 1998. "Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts," Other publications TiSEM f5bcd096-7744-4137-aabc-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  8. Aggarwal, Raj & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "Cointegration among Asian currencies: Evidence of the increasing influence of the Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 291-308, September.
  9. Alexander Jakob Dautel & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Stefan Lessmann & Hsin-Vonn Seow, 2020. "Forex exchange rate forecasting using deep recurrent neural networks," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 69-96, September.
  10. Aggarwal, Raj & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1998. "Common Stochastic Trends among Asian Currencies: Evidence for Japan, ASEANs, and the Asian Tigers," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 193-206, March.
  11. Phillips, Peter C. B. & McFarland, James W., 1997. "Forward exchange market unbiasedness: the case of the Australian dollar since 1984," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 885-907, December.
  12. Macide Cicek, 2014. "A Cointegration Test for Turkish Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(4), pages 451-471, April.
  13. Lence, Sergio & Falk, Barry, 2005. "Cointegration, market integration, and market efficiency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 873-890, October.
  14. Pagan, Jose A. & Soydemir, Gokce A., 2001. "Response asymmetries in the Latin American equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 175-185.
  15. James Kung & Andrew Carverhill, 2005. "A cointegration study of the efficiency of the US Treasury STRIPS market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 695-703.
  16. Naka, Atsuyuki & Whitney, Gerald, 1995. "The unbiased forward rate hypothesis re-examined," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 857-867, December.
  17. Zhao, Yanping & de Haan, Jakob & Scholtens, Bert & Yang, Haizhen, 2013. "The relationship between the Renminbi future spot return and the forward discount rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 156-168.
  18. Douglas J. Hodgson & Oliver Linton & Keith Vorkink, 2004. "Testing Forward Exchange Rate Unbiasedness Efficiently: A Semiparametric Approach," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 325-353, May.
  19. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2009. "Testing for efficiency in selected developing foreign exchange markets: An equilibrium-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 155-166, January.
  20. Buiter, Willem, 2000. "Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does The Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2366, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Sekioua, Sofiane H., 2006. "Nonlinear adjustment in the forward premium: evidence from a threshold unit root test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 164-183.
  22. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
  23. Baffes, John, 2009. "More on the energy / non-energy commodity price link," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4982, The World Bank.
  24. Kan, Denis & Andreosso-O'Callaghan, B., 2007. "Examination of the efficient market hypothesis--the case of post-crisis Asia Pacific countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 294-313, April.
  25. Marco Rossi, 1996. "The information content of the short end of the term structure of interest rates," Bank of England working papers 55, Bank of England.
  26. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Liew Khim Sen & Lim Kian Ping, 2003. "Exchange Rates Forecasting Model: An Alternative Estimation Procedure," International Finance 0307005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  27. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2006. "The Forward Exchange Rate Bias Puzzle: Evidence from New Cointegration Tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp123, IIIS.
  28. Augustine Arize & Steven Shwiff, 1998. "The black market exchange rate and demand for money in sixteen developing countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 128-143, May.
  29. Oumou Kalsoum Diallo & Pierre Mendy, 2019. "Wavelet Leader and Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis of Market Efficiency: Evidence from WAEMU Market Index," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 5(1), pages 1-23, June.
  30. Ho, Tsung-Wu, 2003. "A re-examination of the unbiasedness forward rate hypothesis using dynamic SUR model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 542-559.
  31. Éric Jondeau & Roland Ricart, 1998. "La théorie des anticipations de la structure par terme : test à partir de titres publics français," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 52, pages 1-22.
  32. Zivot, Eric, 2000. "Cointegration and forward and spot exchange rate regressions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 785-812, December.
  33. Napolitano, Oreste, 2000. "The efficiency hypothesis and the role of ‘news’ in the Euro/British pound exchange rate market: an empirical analysis using daily data," ISER Working Paper Series 2000-30, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  34. DeGennaro, Ramon P & Kunkel, Robert A & Lee, Junsoo, 1994. "Modeling International Long-Term Interest Rates," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 577-597, November.
  35. van de Gucht, Linda M. & Dekimpe, Marnik G. & Kwok, Chuck C. Y., 1996. "Persistence in foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 191-220, April.
  36. Edgar J. Wilson & Hazem A. Marashdeh, 2007. "Are Co‐integrated Stock Prices Consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(s1), pages 87-93, September.
  37. Bwo-Nung Huang & Robert Fok, 2001. "Stock market integration - an application of the stochastic permanent breaks model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(11), pages 725-729.
  38. Heejoon Kang, 2004. "Inappropriate Detrending and Spurious Cointegration," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 624, Econometric Society.
  39. John Pippenger, 1991. "Forward rates as predictors of future spot rates in small open economies: The case of Kuwait," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 183-201, June.
  40. Artur C. B. Da Silva Lopes, 1998. "On the 'restricted cointegration test' as a test of the rational expectations hypothesis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 269-278, February.
  41. Bai, Shuming & Mollick, Andre Varella, 2010. "Currency crisis and the forward discount bias: Evidence from emerging economies under breaks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 556-574, December.
  42. Lucia BALDI & Massimo PERI & Daniela VANDONE, 2011. "Spot and future prices of agricultural commodities: fundamentals and speculation," Departmental Working Papers 2011-03, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
  43. Elyasiani, Elyas & Kocagil, Ahmet E., 2001. "Interdependence and dynamics in currency futures markets: A multivariate analysis of intraday data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1161-1186, June.
  44. Sankarkumar, Amirdha Vasani & Selvam, Murugesan & Maniam, Balasundram & Sigo, Marxia Oli, 2017. "Long memory features and relationship stability of Asia-Pacific currencies against USD," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 13(1).
  45. Phillips, Peter C B & McFarland, James W & McMahon, Patrick C, 1996. "Robust Tests of Forward Exchange Market Efficiency with Empirical Evidence from the 1920s," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, Jan.-Feb..
  46. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2014. "Fractional integration and cointegration in US financial time series data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1389-1410, December.
  47. W A Razzak, 1998. "The forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis in inflation-targeting regimes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/3, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, revised Aug 1999.
  48. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2017. "A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of financial market efficiency: Comparison using Dow Jones sector ETF indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 483(C), pages 182-192.
  49. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey & Fergal A. O'Connor, 2014. "Rationality in Precious Metals Forward Markets: Evidence of Behavioural Deviations in the Gold Markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp462, IIIS.
  50. José Roberto López, 1993. "Market efficiency, purchasing power parity and cointegration in Central American black foreing exchange markets," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 8(1), pages 111-153.
  51. Stephen Wilcox & John Geppert, 2007. "An error-correction model for forecasting changes in foreign currency futures spreads," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 31(1), pages 122-142, March.
  52. Bang Nam Jeon & Euiseong Lee, 2002. "Foreign exchange market efficiency, cointegration, and policy coordination," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 61-68.
  53. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  54. Victor Ukpolo, 1995. "Exchange rate market efficiency: further evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(6), pages 196-198.
  55. Arize, A. C. & Shwiff, Steven S., 1998. "The appropriate exchange-rate variable in the money demand of 25 countries: an empirical investigation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 169-185, December.
  56. Buiter, Willem H., 2000. "Optimal currency areas: why does the exchange rate regime matter? (with an application to UK membership in EMU)," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20178, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  57. Yanhua Chen & Rosario N Mantegna & Athanasios A Pantelous & Konstantin M Zuev, 2018. "A dynamic analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-40, March.
  58. Kühl, Michael, 2007. "Cointegration in the foreign exchange market and market efficiency since the introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate cointegration analyses," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 68, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  59. Ciner, Cetin, 2011. "Information transmission across currency futures markets: Evidence from frequency domain tests," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 134-139, June.
  60. Rahim Loufir & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1993. "Convergences nominale et réelle parmi les pays de la CE et de l'AELE," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(1), pages 69-92.
  61. Rahim Loufir & Catherine Bruno & Pascal Jacquinot, 1992. "L'efficience et la formation des anticipations sur le marché des changes," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 42(1), pages 249-282.
  62. Raj Aggarwal & Winston T. Lin & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2008. "Are Forward Exchange Rates Rational Forecasts of Future Spot Rates? An Improved Econometric Analysis for the Major Currencies," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(1-2), pages 1-20, March-Jun.
  63. Ackert, Lucy F. & Racine, M. D., 1999. "Stochastic trends and cointegration in the market for equities," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 133-143, March.
  64. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 23-42, March.
  65. Manolis Kavussanos & Ilias Visvikis & David Menachof, 2005. "The Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Freight Forward Market: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 241-266, October.
  66. Simon Reese & Joakim Westerlund, 2016. "Panicca: Panic on Cross‐Section Averages," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 961-981, September.
  67. Bhatti, Razzaque H., 2014. "The existence of uncovered interest parity in the CIS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 227-241.
  68. Hodgson, Douglas J., 1998. "Adaptive estimation of cointegrating regressions with ARMA errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 231-267, August.
  69. Yamani, Ehab, 2021. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and the global financial crisis: Fundamental versus technical information," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 74-89.
  70. Giampiero M. Gallo & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Ex Post and Ex Ante Analysis of Provisional Data," Working Papers 141, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  71. Wilson H. S. Tong, 2001. "Cointegration, Efficiency and Forecasting in the Currency Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1-2), pages 127-150.
  72. Engel, Charles, 1996. "A note on cointegration and international capital market efficiency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 657-660, August.
  73. Aggarwal, Raj & Simmons, Walter, 2008. "Common stocastic trends among Caribbean currencies: Evidence from Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 277-289.
  74. Joakim Westerlund & Paresh Narayan, 2013. "Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis in Conditionally Heteroskedastic Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(11), pages 1024-1045, November.
  75. Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Exchange rate cointegration across central bank regime shifts," Research Paper 9602, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  76. Mitchell, Karlyn & Pearce, Douglas K., 2007. "Professional forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's panel of economists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 840-854, December.
  77. Barkoulas, John T. & Barilla, Anthony G. & Wells, William, 2016. "Long-memory exchange rate dynamics in the euro era," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 92-100.
  78. Waheed, Muhammad, 2009. "Forward rate unbiased hypothesis, risk premium and exchange rate expectations: estimates on Pakistan Rupee-US Dollar," MPRA Paper 33167, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2010.
  79. Fung, Hung-Gay & Tse, Yiuman & Yau, Jot & Zhao, Lin, 2013. "A leader of the world commodity futures markets in the making? The case of China's commodity futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 103-114.
  80. Hsien-Yi Lee & Khatanbaatar Sodoikhuu, 2012. "Efficiency Tests in Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(2), pages 216-224.
  81. Chulho Jung & K. Doroodian & Robert Albarano, 1998. "The unbiased forward rate hypothesis: a re-examination," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 567-575.
  82. Holmes, Mark J., 2002. "Does long-run real interest parity hold among EU countries? Some new panel data evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 733-746.
  83. Shi-Miin Liu & Chih-Hsien Chou, 2003. "Parities and Spread Trading in Gold and Silver Markets: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 899-911.
  84. Sundar, Cuddalore & Varela, Oscar & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1997. "Black market and official exchange rates, cointegration and purchasing power parity in developing Asian countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 221-238.
  85. Dimitris Kenourgios & Aristeidis Samitas, 2005. "Testing Efficiency Of The Copper Futures Market: New Evidence From London Metal Exchange," Finance 0512010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  86. Ornela Shalari & Areti Stringa, 2013. "Testing The Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency For Euro / Albanian Leke During The Period 01 January 2002 – 31 December 2012," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(32), pages 126-135, May.
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  88. John P. Lajaunie & Atsuyuki Naka, 1997. "Re-examining Cointegration, Unit Roots and Efficiency in Foreign Exchange Rates," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 363-374.
  89. Jeon, Bang Nam & Seo, Byeongseon, 2003. "The impact of the Asian financial crisis on foreign exchange market efficiency: The case of East Asian countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 509-525, September.
  90. Martin B. Schmidt, 2000. "The Dynamic Behavior of Wages and Prices: Cointegration Tests within a Large Macroeconomic System," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(1), pages 123-138, July.
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  96. Jondeau, Eric & Ricart, Roland, 1999. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: tests on US, German, French, and UK Euro-rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 725-750, October.
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  101. Razzaque Bhatti & Imad Moosa, 1995. "An alternative approach to testing uncovered interest parity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(12), pages 478-481.
  102. Abul M.M. Masih & Rumi Masih, 1998. "A Fractional Cointegration Approach to Testing Mean Reversion Between Spot and Forward Exchange Rates: A Case of High Frequency Data with Low Frequency Dynamics," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(7‐8), pages 987-1003, September.
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