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The information content of option prices and a test of market efficiency

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  1. Hun Y. Park & R. Stephen Sears, 1985. "Changing Volatility And The Pricing Of Options On Stock Index Futures," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 8(4), pages 265-274, December.
  2. Güntay, Levent & Hackbarth, Dirk, 2010. "Corporate bond credit spreads and forecast dispersion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2328-2345, October.
  3. Tsiaras, Leonidas, 2009. "The Forecast Performance of Competing Implied Volatility Measures: The Case of Individual Stocks," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2009-02, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  4. Sherrick, Bruce J. & Irwin, Scott H. & Forster, D. Lynn, 1990. "Nonstationarity Of Soybean Futures Price Distributions: Option-Based Evidence," Illinois Agricultural Economics Staff Paper 244666, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
  5. Hwang, Soosung & Satchell, Stephen E., 2000. "Market risk and the concept of fundamental volatility: Measuring volatility across asset and derivative markets and testing for the impact of derivatives markets on financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 759-785, May.
  6. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P. H. Kevin, 1998. "The forecasting ability of correlations implied in foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 855-880, December.
  7. Chuang, Wen-I & Huang, Teng-Ching & Lin, Bing-Huei, 2013. "Predicting volatility using the Markov-switching multifractal model: Evidence from S&P 100 index and equity options," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 168-187.
  8. David S. Bates, 1995. "Testing Option Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 5129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Neely, Christopher J., 2009. "Forecasting foreign exchange volatility: Why is implied volatility biased and inefficient? And does it matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 188-205, February.
  10. Smith, Paul & Gronewoller, Paul & Rose, Lawrence C., 1998. "Pricing efficiency on the New Zealand Futures and Options Exchange," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 49-62, January.
  11. Alessandro Beber & Luca Erzegovesi, 1999. "Distribuzioni di probabilità implicite nei prezzi delle opzioni," Alea Tech Reports 008, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 14 Jun 2008.
  12. Tzang, Shyh-Weir & Hung, Chih-Hsing & Wang, Chou-Wen & Shyu, David So-De, 2011. "Do liquidity and sampling methods matter in constructing volatility indices? Empirical evidence from Taiwan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 312-324, April.
  13. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Hassani, Hossein, 2015. "Forecasting implied volatility indices worldwide: A new approach," MPRA Paper 72084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhou, Huiting & Wen, Fenghua & He, Shaoyi, 2020. "Efficient predictability of stock return volatility: The role of stock market implied volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  15. Heejoon Han & Myung D. Park, 2013. "Comparison of Realized Measure and Implied Volatility in Forecasting Volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 522-533, September.
  16. Noshaba Zulfiqar & Saqib Gulzar, 2021. "Implied volatility estimation of bitcoin options and the stylized facts of option pricing," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, December.
  17. Omar Esqueda & Yongli Luo & Dave Jackson, 2015. "The linkage between the U.S. “fear index” and ADR premiums under non-frictionless stock markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(3), pages 541-556, July.
  18. Chikashi Tsuji, 2003. "Is Volatility the Best Predictor of Market Crashes?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 10(2), pages 163-185, September.
  19. Christiansen, Charlotte & Strunk Hansen, Charlotte, 2000. "Implied Volatility of Interest Rate Options: An Empirical Investigation of the Market Model," Finance Working Papers 00-1, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  20. Najmi Ismail Murad Samsudin & Azhar Mohamad & Imtiaz Mohammad Sifat & Zarinah Hamid, 2022. "Predictive power of implied volatility of structured call warrants: Evidence from Singapore," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4412-4430, October.
  21. Daniel B. Nelson, 1994. "Asymptotic Filtering Theory for Multivariate ARCH Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Huang, Yu Chuan & Chen, Shing Chun, 2002. "Warrants pricing: Stochastic volatility vs. Black-Scholes," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 393-409, September.
  23. Panayiotis Andreou & Chris Charalambous & Spiros Martzoukos, 2006. "Robust Artificial Neural Networks for Pricing of European Options," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 329-351, May.
  24. Carl F. Luft & Bruce D. Fielitz, 1986. "An Empirical Test Of The Commodity Option Pricing Model Using Ginnie Mae Call Options," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 9(2), pages 137-151, June.
  25. Cristina Chinazzo & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2024. "Forecasting Bitcoin Volatility: A Comparative Analysis of Volatility Approaches," Papers 2401.02049, arXiv.org.
  26. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
  27. Tanuj Nandan & Puja Agrawal, 2016. "Pricing Efficiency in CNX Nifty Index Options Using the Black–Scholes Model: A Comparative Study of Alternate Volatility Measures," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 10(2), pages 281-304, May.
  28. Ncube, Mthuli, 1996. "Modelling implied volatility with OLS and panel data models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 71-84, January.
  29. Holger Claessen & Stefan Mittnik, 2002. "Forecasting stock market volatility and the informational efficiency of the DAX-index options market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 302-321.
  30. Rohini Grover & Ajay Shah, 2014. "The imprecision of volatility indexes," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2014-031, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
  31. Wilkens, Sascha & Roder, Klaus, 2006. "The informational content of option-implied distributions: Evidence from the Eurex index and interest rate futures options market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 50-74, September.
  32. Thuy Khang Huynh & Vijay Shenai, 2019. "Option Trading Volumes and Their Impact on Stock Prices at Earnings’ Announcements: A Study of S & P100 Stocks in the Post Crisis Era 2010-2017," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 9(3), pages 83-103, July.
  33. Dudley Gilder & Leonidas Tsiaras, 2020. "Volatility forecasts embedded in the prices of crude‐oil options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1127-1159, July.
  34. Tian-Shyr Dai & Yuh-Dauh Lyuu, 2009. "Accurate approximation formulas for stock options with discrete dividends," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(16), pages 1657-1663.
  35. Heejoon Han & Shen Zhang, 2012. "Non‐stationary non‐parametric volatility model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 15(2), pages 204-225, June.
  36. Ben Hunt, 1991. "A Forecasting Model of Option Pricing Volatility," Working Paper Series 10, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  37. José Manuel Campa & P.H. Kevin Chang & James F. Refalo, 1999. "An Options-Based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations: Brazil's Real Plan, 1994-1997," Working Papers 99-08, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  38. Huiling Yuan & Yong Zhou & Zhiyuan Zhang & Xiangyu Cui, 2019. "Forecasting security's volatility using low-frequency historical data, high-frequency historical data and option-implied volatility," Papers 1907.02666, arXiv.org.
  39. Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay & Ryan, Patricia & Wang, Tianyang, 2018. "Default prediction models: The role of forward-looking measures of returns and volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 146-162.
  40. Murad Samsudin, Najmi Ismail & Mohamad, Azhar & Sifat, Imtiaz Mohammad, 2021. "Implied volatility of structured warrants: Emerging market evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 464-479.
  41. Irwin, Scott H. & Pelly, Robert A. & Zulauf, Carl R., 1989. "An Investigation of Pricing Models for Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle Options," Staff Papers 232393, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  42. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Mr. Armando Méndez Morales, 2003. "Testing the Informational Efficiency of OTC Optionson Emerging Market Currencies," IMF Working Papers 2003/001, International Monetary Fund.
  43. Dimos S. Kambouroudis & David G. McMillan & Katerina Tsakou, 2021. "Forecasting realized volatility: The role of implied volatility, leverage effect, overnight returns, and volatility of realized volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(10), pages 1618-1639, October.
  44. Turvey, Calum G., 1989. "Weighting Implied Volatilities from Soybean and Live Cattle Options," 1989 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 2, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 270696, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  45. Veld, C.H., 1991. "Warrant pricing : A review of theoretical and empirical research," Other publications TiSEM ac252bad-d1c0-45d6-832a-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  46. Ahmet Tezel, 1988. "The Value Line Stock Rankings And The Option Model Implied Standard Deviations," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 11(3), pages 215-225, September.
  47. Michael Boluch & Trevor Chamberlain, 1997. "Option volume and stock price behavior: Some evidence from the Chicago board options exchange," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(4), pages 358-370, December.
  48. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  49. Rohini Grover & Susan Thomas, 2012. "Liquidity Considerations in Estimating Implied Volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(8), pages 714-741, August.
  50. Bisht Deepak & Laha, A. K., 2017. "Assessment of Density Forecast for Energy Commodities in Post-Financialization Era," IIMA Working Papers WP 2017-07-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
  51. Joseph H. Anthony, 1987. "The effect of information announcements on bid/ask spreads in the call options market," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), pages 460-476, March.
  52. Cifarelli, giulio, 2002. "The information content of implied volatilities of options on eurodeposit futures traded on the LIFFE: is there long memory?," MPRA Paper 28538, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  53. Eugenie Hol & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000. "Forecasting the Variability of Stock Index Returns with Stochastic Volatility Models and Implied Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-104/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  54. Szakmary, Andrew & Ors, Evren & Kyoung Kim, Jin & Davidson, Wallace III, 2003. "The predictive power of implied volatility: Evidence from 35 futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2151-2175, November.
  55. Turkington, Joshua & Walsh, David, 2000. "Informed traders and their market preference: Empirical evidence from prices and volumes of options and stock," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 559-585, October.
  56. Tian-Shyr Dai, 2009. "Efficient option pricing on stocks paying discrete or path-dependent dividends with the stair tree," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 827-838.
  57. Groh, Alexander P., 2004. "Risikoadjustierte Performance von Private Equity-Investitionen," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 21382, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
  58. Neuhaus, Holger, 1995. "Der Informationsgehalt von Derivaten für die Geldpolitik: Implizite Volatilitäten und Wahrscheinlichkeiten," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1995,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  59. Koopman, Siem Jan & Jungbacker, Borus & Hol, Eugenie, 2005. "Forecasting daily variability of the S&P 100 stock index using historical, realised and implied volatility measurements," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 445-475, June.
  60. Neuhaus, Holger, 1995. "The information content of derivatives for monetary policy: Implied volatilities and probabilities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1995,03e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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  69. Zhi Dong & Tien Foo Sing, 2021. "Do Investors Overreact for Property and Financial Service Sectors?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 20(1), pages 79-123, April.
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