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Expectation puzzles, time-varying risk premia, and affine models of the term structure

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Cited by:

  1. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
  2. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
  3. Beliaeva, Natalia & Nawalkha, Sanjay, 2012. "Pricing American interest rate options under the jump-extended constant-elasticity-of-variance short rate models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 151-163.
  4. Pegoraro, F. & Siegel, A. F. & Tiozzo Pezzoli, L., 2014. "Specification Analysis of International Treasury Yield Curve Factors," Working papers 490, Banque de France.
  5. Kristensen, Dennis & Mele, Antonio, 2011. "Adding and subtracting Black-Scholes: A new approach to approximating derivative prices in continuous-time models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 390-415.
  6. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2008. "The Yield Curve and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1937-1970, November.
  7. Fernando A. Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2013. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 67-100, January.
  8. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Bond portfolio optimization using dynamic factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 128-158.
  9. Berndt, Antje & Yeltekin, Şevin, 2015. "Monetary policy, bond returns and debt dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 119-136.
  10. Matsumura, Marco & Moreira, Ajax & Vicente, José, 2011. "Forecasting the yield curve with linear factor models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 237-243.
  11. Wu, Tao, 2006. "Macro Factors and the Affine Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1847-1875, October.
  12. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Ou, Yangguoyi, 2012. "Analyzing interest rate risk: Stochastic volatility in the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2988-3007.
  13. Carlo A. Favero & Linlin Niu & Luca Sala, 2007. "Term Structure Forecasting: No-arbitrage Restrictions vs. Large Information Set," Working Papers 318, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  14. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
  15. Daniela Kubudi & José Valentim Vicente, 2016. "A Joint Model of Nominal and Real Yield Curves," Working Papers Series 452, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  16. Buncic, Daniel & Lentner, Philipp, 2016. "The term structure of interest rates in an estimated New Keynesian policy model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 126-150.
  17. Kenneth J. Singleton, 2021. "Presidential Address: How Much “Rationality” Is There in Bond‐Market Risk Premiums?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 1611-1654, August.
  18. Hibiki Ichiue, 2004. "Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with an Affine Term Structure Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 04-E-11, Bank of Japan.
  19. Dongho Song, 2017. "Bond Market Exposures to Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Risks," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(8), pages 2761-2817.
  20. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "No-arbitrage Taylor rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  21. Leo Krippner, 2014. "Measuring the stance of monetary policy in conventional and unconventional environments," CAMA Working Papers 2014-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  22. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2006. "The term structure of inflation risk premia and macroeconomic dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 203, Society for Computational Economics.
  23. Bernaschi, M. & Torosantucci, L. & Uboldi, A., 2007. "Empirical evaluation of the market price of risk using the CIR model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 543-554.
  24. Duarte, Jefferson., 2003. "Evaluating an Alternative Risk Preference in Affine Term Structure Models," Finance Lab Working Papers flwp_49, Finance Lab, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  25. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 75-125, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  26. Kimmel, Robert L., 2007. "Complex Times: Asset Pricing and Conditional Moments under Non-affine Diffusions," Working Paper Series 2007-6, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  27. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2015. "Regression-based estimation of dynamic asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 211-244.
  28. Aglietta, Michel & Brière, Marie & Rigot, Sandra & Signori, Ombretta, 2012. "Rehabilitating the role of active management for pension funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2565-2574.
  29. Pericoli, Marcello & Taboga, Marco, 2012. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 42-65.
  30. Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Le, Anh & Lundblad, Christian, 2015. "Why do term structures in different currencies co-move?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 58-83.
  31. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
  32. Salman Huseynov, 2021. "Long and short memory in dynamic term structure models," CREATES Research Papers 2021-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  33. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2012. "Inflation Risk Premia In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 634-657, May.
  34. Schupp, Fabian, 2020. "The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis," Working Paper Series 2476, European Central Bank.
  35. Lettau, Martin & Wachter, Jessica A., 2011. "The term structures of equity and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 90-113, July.
  36. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
  37. Thornton, Daniel L., 2006. "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 511-542, March.
  38. Antonio Gargano & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2019. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(2), pages 508-540, February.
  39. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2009. "On the Need for a New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 389-425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, September.
  41. Duarte, Diogo & Saporito, Yuri F., 2019. "Endogenous asymmetric money illusion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  42. Peter Hördahl & David Vestin, 2005. "Interpreting Implied Risk-Neutral Densities: The Role of Risk Premia," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 97-137, March.
  43. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2011. "Revisiting the expectations hypothesis: The Japanese term structure and regime shifts," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 237-249, May.
  44. Andreasen, Martin M & Meldrum, Andrew, 2015. "Market beliefs about the UK monetary policy life-off horizon: a no-arbitrage shadow rate term structure model approach," Bank of England working papers 541, Bank of England.
  45. Almeida, Caio & Vicente, José, 2009. "Are interest rate options important for the assessment of interest rate risk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1376-1387, August.
  46. Korn, Olaf & Koziol, Christian, 2006. "Bond portfolio optimization: A risk-return approach," CFR Working Papers 06-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  47. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  48. Carlo A. Favero & Linlin Niu & Luca Sala, 2012. "Term Structure Forecasting: No‐Arbitrage Restrictions versus Large Information Set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 124-156, March.
  49. De Rossi, Giuliano, 2004. "Kalman filtering of consistent forward rate curves: a tool to estimate and model dynamically the term structure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 277-308, March.
  50. Guimarães, Rodrigo, 2014. "Expectations, risk premia and information spanning in dynamic term structure model estimation," Bank of England working papers 489, Bank of England.
  51. Balter, Anne G. & Pelsser, Antoon & Schotman, Peter C., 2021. "What does a term structure model imply about very long-term interest rates?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 202-219.
  52. Charles Engel, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," Working Papers 272011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  53. Paolo Zagaglia, 2011. "Forecasting Long-Term Interest Rates with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area: The Role of the Feedback," Working Paper series 19_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  54. Leo Krippner, 2013. "A tractable framework for zero-lower-bound Gaussian term structure models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-49, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  55. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2008. "Canonical Term‐Structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamics of Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1471-1488, October.
  56. Leo Krippner, 2009. "A theoretical foundation for the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  57. Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2018. "The impact of oil price shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 601-620.
  58. Istrefi, Klodiana & Mouabbi, Sarah, 2018. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy: A cross-country analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 296-313.
  59. David K. Backus & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Cracking the Conundrum," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 293-329.
  60. Leo Krippner, 2012. "Modifying Gaussian term structure models when interest rates are near the zero lower bound (this is a revised version of CAMA working paper 36/2011)," CAMA Working Papers 2012-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  61. Andrew Ang & Jean Boivin & Sen Dong & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2011. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Term Structure," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(2), pages 429-457.
  62. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March.
  63. D H Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the Term Structure," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 51, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  64. H. Bertholon & A. Monfort & F. Pegoraro, 2008. "Econometric Asset Pricing Modelling," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 407-458, Fall.
  65. Antoine Kopp & Rebecca Westphal & Didier Sornette, 2022. "Agent-based model generating stylized facts of fixed income markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(4), pages 947-992, October.
  66. Vicente, José & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2008. "Forecasting bond yields in the Brazilian fixed income market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 490-497.
  67. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2010. "Fluctuation dynamics in US interest rates and the role of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 163-169, September.
  68. Francis X. Diebold, 2004. "The Nobel Memorial Prize for Robert F. Engle," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(2), pages 165-185, June.
  69. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
  70. Leo Krippner, 2011. "Modifying Gaussian term structure models when interest rates are near the zero lower bound," CAMA Working Papers 2011-36, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  71. Alserda, Gosse A.G. & Dellaert, Benedict G.C. & Swinkels, Laurens & van der Lecq, Fieke S.G., 2019. "Individual pension risk preference elicitation and collective asset allocation with heterogeneity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 206-225.
  72. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2012. "Risk aversion, intertemporal substitution, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 1013-1036, September.
  73. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 4-20, September.
  74. Wei Xiong & Hongjun Yan, 2010. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1433-1466, April.
  75. Enzo Weber & Jürgen Wolters, 2013. "Risk and Policy Shocks on the US Term Structure," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(1), pages 101-119, February.
  76. Hongye Guo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2019. ""Superstitious" Investors," NBER Working Papers 25603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  77. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton & Wei Yang, 2007. "Regime Shifts in a Dynamic Term Structure Model of U.S. Treasury Bond Yields," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1669-1706, 2007 12.
  78. Andrea Ajello & Luca Benzoni & Olena Chyruk & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2020. "Core and ‘Crust’: Consumer Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates [Decomposing real and nominal yield curves]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(8), pages 3719-3765.
  79. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
  80. Shang, Yuhuang & Zheng, Tingguo, 2018. "Fitting and forecasting yield curves with a mixed-frequency affine model: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 145-154.
  81. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Anh Le & Christian Lundblad, 2022. "Tractable Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8411-8429, November.
  82. Nikolaou, Kleopatra & Modugno, Michele, 2009. "The forecasting power of internal yield curve linkages," Working Paper Series 1044, European Central Bank.
  83. Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1514-1534, June.
  84. Sercu, Piet & Vandebroek, Martina & Wu, Xueping, 2008. "Is the forward bias economically small? Evidence from European rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1284-1302, December.
  85. Andrew Ang & Richard C. Green & Francis A. Longstaff & Yuhang Xing, 2017. "Advance Refundings of Municipal Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1645-1682, August.
  86. Martin M. Andreasen & Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2016. "Bond Market Asymmetries across Recessions and Expansions: New Evidence on Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2016-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  87. Andrea Carriero & Sarah Mouabbi & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2018. "UK term structure decompositions at the zero lower bound," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 643-661, August.
  88. GlennD. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, July.
  89. Martin M. Andreasen, 2021. "The New Keynesian Model and Bond Yields," CREATES Research Papers 2021-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  90. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2007. "Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No-Arbitrage and Macro-Finance Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 395-422, March.
  91. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 331-367, June.
  92. Nawalkha, Sanjay K & Zhuo, Xiaoyang, 2020. "A Theory of Equivalent Expectation Measures for Expected Prices of Contingent Claims," OSF Preprints hsxtu, Center for Open Science.
  93. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2011. "A note on the predictability of excess bond returns and regime shifts," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 101-109, June.
  94. Enlin Pan & Liuren Wu, 2006. "Taking Positive Interest Rates Seriously," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Cheng-Few Lee (ed.), Advances In Quantitative Analysis Of Finance And Accounting, chapter 14, pages 327-356, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  95. Martin Schneider & Monika Piazzesi, 2008. "Bond Positions, Expectations, and the Yield Curve," 2008 Meeting Papers 268, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  96. Isaac Kleshchelski & Nicolas Vincent, 2007. "Robust Equilibrium Yield Curves," Cahiers de recherche 08-02, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
  97. Gallmeyer, Michael F. & Hollifield, Burton & Zin, Stanley E., 2005. "Taylor rules, McCallum rules and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 921-950, July.
  98. Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version," Working papers 191, Banque de France.
  99. Davig, Troy & Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B., 2011. "Inflation and the fiscal limit," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 31-47, January.
  100. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
  101. Lioui, Abraham & Tarelli, Andrea, 2019. "Macroeconomic environment, money demand and portfolio choice," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(1), pages 357-374.
  102. Glenn Rudebusch & Michael Bauer, 2013. "The Shadow Rate, Taylor Rules, and Monetary Policy Lift-off," 2013 Meeting Papers 691, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  103. Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Papers 2004-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  104. Francesco Campigli & Gabriele Tedeschi & Maria Cristina Recchioni, 2021. "The talkative variables of the hybrid Heston model: Yields’ maturity and economic (in)stability," Working Papers 2021/03, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  105. Kim, Don H. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2012. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 241-272, February.
  106. Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwartz & Gonzalo de Cadenas Santiago, 2005. "Modeling the FIBOR/EURIBOR Swap Term Structure: An Empirical Approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-024, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  107. Malik, Sheheryar & Meldrum, Andrew, 2016. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 85-102.
  108. Luis Ceballos & Alberto Naudon & Damián Romero, 2016. "Nominal term structure and term premia: evidence from Chile," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(29), pages 2721-2735, June.
  109. Campbell, John Y. & Sunderam, Adi & Viceira, Luis M., 2017. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 263-301, September.
  110. Peter Christoffersen & Steven Heston & Kris Jacobs, 2009. "The Shape and Term Structure of the Index Option Smirk: Why Multifactor Stochastic Volatility Models Work So Well," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(12), pages 1914-1932, December.
  111. Shu Wu, 2007. "Interest Rate Risk and the Forward Premium Anomaly in Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 423-442, March.
  112. Andrea Carriero & Sarah Mouabbi & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2018. "UK term structure decompositions at the zero lower bound," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 643-661, August.
  113. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
  114. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Risk premia in crude oil futures prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 9-37.
  115. José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "A Non-Knotty Inflation Risk Premium Model," Working Papers Series 543, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  116. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 2011. "Time-variation in term premia: International survey-based evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 605-622, June.
  117. Renne, J-P., 2009. "Frequency-domain analysis of debt service in a macro-finance model for the euro area," Working papers 261, Banque de France.
  118. Inci, Ahmet Can, 2007. "US-Swiss term structures and exchange rate dynamics," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 270-288.
  119. Raviv, Eran, 2015. "Prediction bias correction for dynamic term structure models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 112-115.
  120. Leite, André Luís & Filho, Romeu Braz Pereira Gomes & Vicente, José Valentim Machado, 2010. "Forecasting the yield curve: A statistical model with market survey data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 108-112, March.
  121. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
  122. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George & Skoulakis, Georgios, 2011. "Improving the predictability of real economic activity and asset returns with forward variances inferred from option portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 475-495, June.
  123. Núñez-Mora, José A. & Martínez Reyes, Carlos A., 2012. "Nonparametric Specification Testing for Continuous Time Models for Interest Rates in Mexico," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(14), pages 7-27, primer se.
  124. Hordahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste & Vestin, David, 2006. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term-structure dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 405-444.
  125. Carmen Gloria Silva, 2010. "Forward premium puzzle and term structure of interest rates: the case of New Zealand," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 570, Central Bank of Chile.
  126. JULES H. Van BINSBERGEN & MICHAEL W. BRANDT & RALPH S. J. KOIJEN, 2008. "Optimal Decentralized Investment Management," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1849-1895, August.
  127. Almeida, Caio & Graveline, Jeremy J. & Joslin, Scott, 2011. "Do interest rate options contain information about excess returns?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 35-44, September.
  128. Richard Finlay & Mark Chambers, 2009. "A Term Structure Decomposition of the Australian Yield Curve," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(271), pages 383-400, December.
  129. Jacobs, Kris & Karoui, Lotfi, 2009. "Conditional volatility in affine term-structure models: Evidence from Treasury and swap markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 288-318, March.
  130. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," Chapters, in: Peter Conti-Brown & Rosa M. Lastra (ed.), Research Handbook on Central Banking, chapter 20, pages 398-444, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  131. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching monetary policy regimes and the nominal term structure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119070, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  132. Carlo A. Favero & Arie E. Gozluklu & Haoxi Yang, 2016. "Demographics and the Behavior of Interest Rates," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 732-776, November.
  133. Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan, 2013. "The development of financial markets and financial theory: 50 years of interaction," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume Chapters, in: Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan (ed.), 50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, chapter 5, pages 157-194, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  134. Anh Le & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2010. "An Equilibrium Term Structure Model with Recursive Preferences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 557-561, May.
  135. Martin Andreasen, 2012. "On the Effects of Rare Disasters and Uncertainty Shocks for Risk Premia in Non-Linear DSGE Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 295-316, July.
  136. Christiane Baumeister, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," Working Papers 202163, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  137. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2009. "Forecasting with a DSGE Model of the term Structure of Interest Rates: The Role of the Feedback," Research Papers in Economics 2009:14, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  138. Ales Marsal & Lorant Kaszab & Roman Horvath, 2017. "Government Spending and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in a DSGE Model," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2017, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
  139. Antonio Diez De Los Rios, 2009. "Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 755-766, June.
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