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An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices

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Cited by:

  1. Maryniak, Paweł & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "Carbon pricing and electricity markets — The case of the Australian Clean Energy Bill," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 45-58.
  2. Afanasyev, Dmitriy & Fedorova, Elena, 2015. "The long-term trends on Russian electricity market: comparison of empirical mode and wavelet decompositions," MPRA Paper 62391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2012. "Inference for Markov-regime switching models of electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/12/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  4. Stephen Machin & Olivier Marie & Sunčica Vujić, 2012. "Youth Crime and Education Expansion," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13(4), pages 366-384, November.
  5. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
  6. Lisi, Francesco & Pelagatti, Matteo M., 2018. "Component estimation for electricity market data: Deterministic or stochastic?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 13-37.
  7. Mari, Carlo & Cananà, Lucianna, 2012. "Markov switching of the electricity supply curve and power prices dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1481-1488.
  8. Jannik Schütz Roungkvist & Peter Enevoldsen & George Xydis, 2020. "High-Resolution Electricity Spot Price Forecast for the Danish Power Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-19, May.
  9. Tegnér, Martin & Ernstsen, Rune Ramsdal & Skajaa, Anders & Poulsen, Rolf, 2017. "Risk-minimisation in electricity markets: Fixed price, unknown consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 423-439.
  10. Brix, Anne Floor & Lunde, Asger & Wei, Wei, 2018. "A generalized Schwartz model for energy spot prices — Estimation using a particle MCMC method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 560-582.
  11. Deschatre, Thomas & Féron, Olivier & Gruet, Pierre, 2021. "A survey of electricity spot and futures price models for risk management applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  12. Stein-Erik Fleten & Ronald Huisman & Mehtap Kilic & Enrico Pennings & Sjur Westgaard, 2014. "Electricity futures prices: time varying sensitivity to fundamentals," Working Papers 2014/21, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  13. F. Cordoni, 2020. "A comparison of modern deep neural network architectures for energy spot price forecasting," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 189-210, December.
  14. Chi-Keung Woo, Ira Horowitz, Brian Horii, Ren Orans, and Jay Zarnikau, 2012. "Blowing in the Wind: Vanishing Payoffs of a Tolling Agreement for Natural-gas-fired Generation of Electricity in Texas," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
  15. Urom, Christian & Onwuka, Kevin O. & Uma, Kalu E. & Yuni, Denis N., 2020. "Regime dependent effects and cyclical volatility spillover between crude oil price movements and stock returns," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 10-29.
  16. Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2015. "Electricity derivatives pricing with forward-looking information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-57.
  17. Nowotarski, Jakub & Tomczyk, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2013. "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 13-27.
  18. Zarnikau, J. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K., 2020. "Determinants of the wholesale prices of energy and ancillary services in the U.S. Midcontinent electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
  19. Margaret Insley, 2013. "On the timing of non-renewable resource extraction with regime switching prices: an optimal stochastic control approach," Working Papers 1302, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2013.
  20. Woo, C.K. & Shiu, A. & Liu, Y. & Luo, X. & Zarnikau, J., 2018. "Consumption effects of an electricity decarbonization policy: Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 887-902.
  21. Wylomanska-, Agnieszka, 2010. "Measures of dependence for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with tempered stable distribution," MPRA Paper 28535, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
  22. Ismail Shah & Hasnain Iftikhar & Sajid Ali & Depeng Wang, 2019. "Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting Using Components Estimation Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-17, July.
  23. Yan, Guan & Trück, Stefan, 2020. "A dynamic network analysis of spot electricity prices in the Australian national electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  24. Ronald Huisman & Victoria Stradnic & Sjur Westgaard, 2013. "Renewable energy and electricity prices: indirect empirical evidence from hydro power," Working Papers 2013/24, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  25. Eichler, M. & Türk, D., 2013. "Fitting semiparametric Markov regime-switching models to electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 614-624.
  26. Ronald Huisman & Victoria Stradnic & Sjur Westgaard, 2013. "Renewable energy and electricity prices: indirect empirical evidence from hydro power," Working Papers 2013/24, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  27. Chang, Chun-Ping & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2015. "Do oil spot and futures prices move together?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 379-390.
  28. Pawel Maryniak & Rafal Weron, 2014. "Forecasting the occurrence of electricity price spikes in the UK power market," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/11, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  29. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A., 2019. "On the impact of outlier filtering on the electricity price forecasting accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 196-210.
  30. Alexios Lekidis & Elpiniki I. Papageorgiou, 2023. "Edge-Based Short-Term Energy Demand Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-20, July.
  31. Cyril Martin de Lagarde & Frédéric Lantz, 2017. "Impact of Variable Renewable Production on Electriciy Prices in Germany : A Markov Switching Model," Working Papers hal-03187020, HAL.
  32. Ida Bakke & Stein-Erik Fleten & Lars Ivar Hagfors & Verena Hagspiel & Beate Norheim & Sonja Wogrin, 2016. "Investment in electric energy storage under uncertainty: a real options approach," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 483-500, July.
  33. Dmitriy O. Afanasyev & Elena A. Fedorova & Evgeniy V. Gilenko, 2021. "The fundamental drivers of electricity price: a multi-scale adaptive regression analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1913-1938, April.
  34. Eichler, M. & Grothe, O. & Manner, H. & Türk, D.D.T., 2012. "Modeling spike occurrences in electricity spot prices for forecasting," Research Memorandum 029, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  35. Janczura, Joanna & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał & Wolff, Rodney C., 2013. "Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 96-110.
  36. Zheng Xu, 2016. "An alternative circular smoothing method to nonparametric estimation of periodic functions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(9), pages 1649-1672, July.
  37. Apergis, Nicholas & Pan, Wei-Fong & Reade, James & Wang, Shixuan, 2023. "Modelling Australian electricity prices using indicator saturation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  38. Gerster, Andreas, 2016. "Negative price spikes at power markets: The role of energy policy," Ruhr Economic Papers 636, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  39. Dias, José G. & Ramos, Sofia B., 2014. "Energy price dynamics in the U.S. market. Insights from a heterogeneous multi-regime framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 327-336.
  40. Smith, Michael Stanley, 2015. "Copula modelling of dependence in multivariate time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 815-833.
  41. Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2013. "Goodness-of-fit testing for the marginal distribution of regime-switching models with an application to electricity spot prices," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 97(3), pages 239-270, July.
  42. Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "Goodness-of-fit testing for regime-switching models," MPRA Paper 22871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  43. Andreas Gerster, 2016. "Negative price spikes at power markets: the role of energy policy," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 271-289, December.
  44. Umut Ugurlu & Ilkay Oksuz & Oktay Tas, 2018. "Electricity Price Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-23, May.
  45. Zachmann, Georg, 2013. "A stochastic fuel switching model for electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 5-13.
  46. Stein-Erik Fleten & Ronald Huisman & Mehtap Kilic & Enrico Pennings & Sjur Westgaard, 2014. "Electricity futures prices: time varying sensitivity to fundamentals," Working Papers 2014/21, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  47. Rangga Handika & Chi Truong & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2014. "Modelling price spikes in electricity markets - the impact of load, weather and capacity," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  48. Eichler, M. & Türk, D.D.T., 2012. "Fitting semiparametric Markov regime-switching models to electricity spot prices," Research Memorandum 035, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  49. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  50. Alexandre Lucas & Konstantinos Pegios & Evangelos Kotsakis & Dan Clarke, 2020. "Price Forecasting for the Balancing Energy Market Using Machine-Learning Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-16, October.
  51. Weron, Rafał & Zator, Michał, 2015. "A note on using the Hodrick–Prescott filter in electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-6.
  52. Insley, Margaret, 2017. "Resource extraction with a carbon tax and regime switching prices: Exercising your options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-16.
  53. Carlo Lucheroni, 2012. "A hybrid SETARX model for spikes in tight electricity markets," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 22(1), pages 13-49.
  54. Nadja Klein & Michael Stanley Smith & David J. Nott, 2023. "Deep distributional time series models and the probabilistic forecasting of intraday electricity prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 493-511, June.
  55. Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2012. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(3), pages 385-407, July.
  56. Woo, C.K. & Moore, J. & Schneiderman, B. & Ho, T. & Olson, A. & Alagappan, L. & Chawla, K. & Toyama, N. & Zarnikau, J., 2016. "Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 299-312.
  57. Chi-Keung Woo, Ira Horowitz, Jay Zarnikau, Jack Moore, Brendan Schneiderman, Tony Ho, and Eric Leung, 2016. "What Moves the Ex Post Variable Profit of Natural-Gas-Fired Generation in California?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
  58. Grossi, Luigi & Nan, Fany, 2019. "Robust forecasting of electricity prices: Simulations, models and the impact of renewable sources," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 305-318.
  59. Sapio, Alessandro, 2015. "The effects of renewables in space and time: A regime switching model of the Italian power price," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 487-499.
  60. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
  61. Weron, Rafal & Janczura, Joanna, 2010. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity wholesale market prices," MPRA Paper 26628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  62. Lindström, Erik & Norén, Vicke & Madsen, Henrik, 2015. "Consumption management in the Nord Pool region: A stability analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 239-246.
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  64. Ruoyang Li & Alva Svoboda & Shmuel Oren, 2015. "Efficiency impact of convergence bidding in the california electricity market," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 245-284, December.
  65. Lisi, Francesco & Nan, Fany, 2014. "Component estimation for electricity prices: Procedures and comparisons," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 143-159.
  66. Joanna Janczura & Aleksandra Michalak, 2020. "Optimization of Electric Energy Sales Strategy Based on Probabilistic Forecasts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-16, February.
  67. Mosquera-López, Stephanía & Uribe, Jorge M. & Manotas-Duque, Diego Fernando, 2017. "Nonlinear empirical pricing in electricity markets using fundamental weather factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 594-605.
  68. Smith, Michael Stanley & Shively, Thomas S., 2018. "Econometric modeling of regional electricity spot prices in the Australian market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 886-903.
  69. Apergis, Nicholas & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Wang, Shixuan, 2019. "Decoding the Australian electricity market: New evidence from three-regime hidden semi-Markov model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 129-142.
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  71. Brusaferri, Alessandro & Matteucci, Matteo & Portolani, Pietro & Vitali, Andrea, 2019. "Bayesian deep learning based method for probabilistic forecast of day-ahead electricity prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1158-1175.
  72. Paraschiv, Florentina, 2013. "Price Dynamics in Electricity Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1314, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  73. Lars Ivar Hagfors & Hilde Hørthe Kamperud & Florentina Paraschiv & Marcel Prokopczuk & Alma Sator & Sjur Westgaard, 2016. "Prediction of extreme price occurrences in the German day-ahead electricity market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1929-1948, December.
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  75. Auer, Benjamin R., 2016. "How does Germany's green energy policy affect electricity market volatility? An application of conditional autoregressive range models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 621-628.
  76. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Camadan, Ercument & Erten, Ibrahim Etem & Zhang, Alex Hongliang, 2023. "Market failure or politics? Understanding the motives behind regulatory actions to address surging electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
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  79. Christian Pape & Arne Vogler & Oliver Woll & Christoph Weber, 2017. "Forecasting the distributions of hourly electricity spot prices," EWL Working Papers 1705, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised May 2017.
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  111. Martina Assereto & Julie Byrne, 2020. "The Implications of Policy Uncertainty on Solar Photovoltaic Investment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-20, November.
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