IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/r/eee/eneeco/v23y2001i3p325-338.html
   My bibliography  Save this item

A semiparametric approach to short-term oil price forecasting

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as


Cited by:

  1. Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Chakriya Bowman, 2004. "Forecasting Commodity Prices: Futures Versus Judgment," IMF Working Papers 2004/041, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Marc Gronwald, 2009. "Jumps in Oil Prices- Evidence and Implications," ifo Working Paper Series 75, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  3. Ding, Yishan, 2018. "A novel decompose-ensemble methodology with AIC-ANN approach for crude oil forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 328-336.
  4. Hongtao Chen & Lianghua Chen, 2015. "Multifractal spectrum analysis of Brent crude oil futures prices volatility in intercontinental exchange," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 38(1/2/3), pages 93-108.
  5. Auer, Benjamin R., 2014. "Daily seasonality in crude oil returns and volatilities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 82-88.
  6. Dzieliński, Michał & Rieger, Marc Oliver & Talpsepp, Tõnn, 2018. "Asymmetric attention and volatility asymmetry," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 59-67.
  7. de Albuquerquemello, Vinícius Phillipe & de Medeiros, Rennan Kertlly & da Nóbrega Besarria, Cássio & Maia, Sinézio Fernandes, 2018. "Forecasting crude oil price: Does exist an optimal econometric model?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 578-591.
  8. Scarpa, Elisa & Longo, Chiara & Manera, Matteo & Markandya, Anil, 2007. "Evaluating the Empirical Performance of Alternative Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting," International Energy Markets Working Papers 12118, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
  9. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paesani, Paolo, 2017. "On the difficulty of interpreting market behaviour in an uncertain world: the case of oil futures pricing between 2003 and 2016," MPRA Paper 84009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. He, Angela W.W. & Kwok, Jerry T.K. & Wan, Alan T.K., 2010. "An empirical model of daily highs and lows of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1499-1506, November.
  11. Anthony Garratt & Shaun P. Vahey & Yunyi Zhang, 2019. "Real‐time forecast combinations for the oil price," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 456-462, April.
  12. Kim, Myung Suk, 2018. "Impacts of supply and demand factors on declining oil prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1059-1065.
  13. Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo & Markandya, Anil & Scarpa, Elisa, 2011. "Oil Price Forecast Evaluation with Flexible Loss Functions," Energy: Resources and Markets 120042, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
  14. Halkos, George & Tsirivis, Apostolos, 2019. "Using Value-at-Risk for effective energy portfolio risk management," MPRA Paper 91674, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Du, Xiaodong & Yu, Cindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2011. "Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 497-503, May.
  16. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Wei, Yu, 2011. "Can GARCH-class models capture long memory in WTI crude oil markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 921-927, May.
  17. Tang, Linghui & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2002. "An empirical exploration of the world oil price under the target zone model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 577-596, November.
  18. Dias, José G. & Ramos, Sofia B., 2014. "Energy price dynamics in the U.S. market. Insights from a heterogeneous multi-regime framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 327-336.
  19. Taiyong Li & Min Zhou & Chaoqi Guo & Min Luo & Jiang Wu & Fan Pan & Quanyi Tao & Ting He, 2016. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Using EEMD and RVM with Adaptive PSO-Based Kernels," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-21, December.
  20. Yang, Tianle & Zhou, Fangxing & Du, Min & Du, Qunyang & Zhou, Shirong, 2023. "Fluctuation in the global oil market, stock market volatility, and economic policy uncertainty: A study of the US and China," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 377-387.
  21. Jeffrey A Frankel & Andrew K Rose, 2010. "Determinants of Agricultural and Mineral Commodity Prices," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  22. Mingming, Tang & Jinliang, Zhang, 2012. "A multiple adaptive wavelet recurrent neural network model to analyze crude oil prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 275-286.
  23. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Kim, Jihun, 2019. "Crude oil price shocks and hedging performance: A comparison of volatility models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1132-1147.
  24. Katja Ignatieva & Natalia Ponomareva, 2017. "Commodity currencies and commodity prices: modelling static and time-varying dependence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(15), pages 1491-1512, March.
  25. Halkos, George & Tzirivis, Apostolos, 2018. "Effective energy commodities’ risk management: Econometric modeling of price volatility," MPRA Paper 90781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Huang, Dashan & Yu, Baimin & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Fukushima, Masao, 2009. "CAViaR-based forecast for oil price risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 511-518, July.
  27. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2016. "Forecasting spot oil price in a dynamic model averaging framework — Have the determinants changed over time?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 35-46.
  28. Yu, Lean & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2008. "Forecasting crude oil price with an EMD-based neural network ensemble learning paradigm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2623-2635, September.
  29. Anthony Nyangarika & Alexey Mikhaylov & Ulf Henning Richter, 2019. "Oil Price Factors: Forecasting on the Base of Modified Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(1), pages 149-159.
  30. Liu, Weiping & Wang, Chengzhu & Li, Yonggang & Liu, Yishun & Huang, Keke, 2021. "Ensemble forecasting for product futures prices using variational mode decomposition and artificial neural networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  31. Afees A. Salisu & Ismail O. Fasanya, 2012. "Comparative Performance of Volatility Models for Oil Price," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 167-183.
  32. Claudio Dicembrino & Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo, 2012. "The Fundamental and Speculative Components of the Oil Spot Price: A Real Option Value Approach," CEIS Research Paper 229, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 18 Apr 2012.
  33. Cheng, Fangzheng & Fan, Tijun & Fan, Dandan & Li, Shanling, 2018. "The prediction of oil price turning points with log-periodic power law and multi-population genetic algorithm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 341-355.
  34. Piersanti, Giovanni & Piersanti, Mirko & Cicone, Antonio & Canofari, Paolo & Di Domizio, Marco, 2020. "An inquiry into the structure and dynamics of crude oil price using the fast iterative filtering algorithm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  35. Yingrui Zhou & Taiyong Li & Jiayi Shi & Zijie Qian, 2019. "A CEEMDAN and XGBOOST-Based Approach to Forecast Crude Oil Prices," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-15, February.
  36. Mohammadi, Hassan & Su, Lixian, 2010. "International evidence on crude oil price dynamics: Applications of ARIMA-GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1001-1008, September.
  37. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Boris, Keith, 2009. "Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts: The DOE's energy price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 189-196.
  38. Shahid Ali & Junrui Zhang & Mazhar Abbas & Muhammad Umar Draz & Fayyaz Ahmad, 2019. "Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH Estimations and Portfolio Optimization: Evidence From G7 Stock Markets," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(2), pages 21582440198, May.
  39. Efimova, Olga & Serletis, Apostolos, 2014. "Energy markets volatility modelling using GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 264-273.
  40. Özbek, Levent & Özlale, Ümit, 2010. "Analysis of real oil prices via trend-cycle decomposition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3676-3683, July.
  41. Movagharnejad, Kamyar & Mehdizadeh, Bahman & Banihashemi, Morteza & Kordkheili, Masoud Sheikhi, 2011. "Forecasting the differences between various commercial oil prices in the Persian Gulf region by neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 3979-3984.
  42. Hou, Aijun & Suardi, Sandy, 2012. "A nonparametric GARCH model of crude oil price return volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 618-626.
  43. Wang, Minggang & Tian, Lixin & Zhou, Peng, 2018. "A novel approach for oil price forecasting based on data fluctuation network," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 201-212.
  44. Naiming Xie & Alan Pearman, 2014. "Forecasting energy consumption in China following instigation of an energy-saving policy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 639-659, November.
  45. Alao, Rasheed O. & Payaslioglu, Cem, 2021. "Oil price uncertainty and industrial production in oil-exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  46. Viviana Fernández, 2006. "Forecasting crude oil and natural gas spot prices by classification methods," Documentos de Trabajo 229, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  47. Aliyev, Fuzuli & Ajayi, Richard & Gasim, Nijat, 2020. "Modelling asymmetric market volatility with univariate GARCH models: Evidence from Nasdaq-100," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
  48. Wei, Yu & Wang, Yudong & Huang, Dengshi, 2010. "Forecasting crude oil market volatility: Further evidence using GARCH-class models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1477-1484, November.
  49. Hasnain Iftikhar & Aimel Zafar & Josue E. Turpo-Chaparro & Paulo Canas Rodrigues & Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales, 2023. "Forecasting Day-Ahead Brent Crude Oil Prices Using Hybrid Combinations of Time Series Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-19, August.
  50. Lin, Ling & Jiang, Yong & Xiao, Helu & Zhou, Zhongbao, 2020. "Crude oil price forecasting based on a novel hybrid long memory GARCH-M and wavelet analysis model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 543(C).
  51. Theodore Syriopoulos & Michael Tsatsaronis & Ioannis Karamanos, 2021. "Support Vector Machine Algorithms: An Application to Ship Price Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 55-87, January.
  52. Sahraei, Mohammad Ali & Duman, Hakan & Çodur, Muhammed Yasin & Eyduran, Ecevit, 2021. "Prediction of transportation energy demand: Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
  53. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Sarwar, Suleman & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2019. "Analysing volatility spillover between the oil market and the stock market in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries: Implications on portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 22-32.
  54. Asit Kumar Das & Debahuti Mishra & Kaberi Das & Pradeep Kumar Mallick & Sachin Kumar & Mikhail Zymbler & Hesham El-Sayed, 2022. "Prophesying the Short-Term Dynamics of the Crude Oil Future Price by Adopting the Survival of the Fittest Principle of Improved Grey Optimization and Extreme Learning Machine," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-33, March.
  55. Kang, Sang Hoon & Kang, Sang-Mok & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2009. "Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 119-125, January.
  56. Giliola Frey & Matteo Manera & Anil Markandya & Elisa Scarpa, 2009. "Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting: A Critical Survey," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(1), pages 29-44, April.
  57. Vo, Minh T., 2009. "Regime-switching stochastic volatility: Evidence from the crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 779-788, September.
  58. Taiyong Li & Zhenda Hu & Yanchi Jia & Jiang Wu & Yingrui Zhou, 2018. "Forecasting Crude Oil Prices Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Sparse Bayesian Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-23, July.
  59. Conejo, Antonio J. & Contreras, Javier & Espinola, Rosa & Plazas, Miguel A., 2005. "Forecasting electricity prices for a day-ahead pool-based electric energy market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 435-462.
  60. Ghaffari, Ali & Zare, Samaneh, 2009. "A novel algorithm for prediction of crude oil price variation based on soft computing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 531-536, July.
  61. Raúl De Jesús Gutiérrez & Reyna Vergara González & Miguel A. Díaz Carreño, 2015. "Predicción de la volatilidad en el mercado del petróleo mexicano ante la presencia de efectos asimétricos," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, March.
  62. Chul-Yong Lee & Sung-Yoon Huh, 2017. "Forecasting Long-Term Crude Oil Prices Using a Bayesian Model with Informative Priors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, January.
  63. Manel Hamdi & Chaker Aloui, 2015. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks: A Literature Survey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 1339-1359.
  64. Arash Sioofy Khoojine & Mahboubeh Shadabfar & Yousef Edrisi Tabriz, 2022. "A Mutual Information-Based Network Autoregressive Model for Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using Open-High-Low-Close Prices," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(17), pages 1-20, September.
  65. García-Martos, Carolina & Rodríguez, Julio & Sánchez, María Jesús, 2013. "Modelling and forecasting fossil fuels, CO2 and electricity prices and their volatilities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 363-375.
  66. Jiang Wu & Yu Chen & Tengfei Zhou & Taiyong Li, 2019. "An Adaptive Hybrid Learning Paradigm Integrating CEEMD, ARIMA and SBL for Crude Oil Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-23, April.
  67. Murat, Atilim & Tokat, Ekin, 2009. "Forecasting oil price movements with crack spread futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 85-90, January.
  68. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Lin, Shih-Mo, 2014. "Non-linear dynamics in international resource markets: Evidence from regime switching approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 233-247.
  69. Halkos, George E. & Tsirivis, Apostolos S., 2019. "Effective energy commodity risk management: Econometric modeling of price volatility," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 234-250.
  70. Viviana Fernandez, 2008. "Traditional versus novel forecasting techniques: how much do we gain?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 637-648.
  71. Lei, Lei & Aziz, Ghazala & Sarwar, Suleman & Waheed, Rida & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2023. "Spillover and portfolio analysis for oil and stock market: A new insight across financial crisis, COVID-19 and Russian-Ukraine war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
  72. Fernandez, Viviana, 2007. "Wavelet- and SVM-based forecasts: An analysis of the U.S. metal and materials manufacturing industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 80-89.
  73. Cheng, Fangzheng & Li, Tian & Wei, Yi-ming & Fan, Tijun, 2019. "The VEC-NAR model for short-term forecasting of oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 656-667.
  74. Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
  75. Zhang, Xun & Lai, K.K. & Wang, Shou-Yang, 2008. "A new approach for crude oil price analysis based on Empirical Mode Decomposition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 905-918, May.
  76. Benjamin R. Auer, 2021. "Have trend-following signals in commodity futures markets become less reliable in recent years?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(4), pages 533-553, December.
  77. Wei, Yu, 2012. "Forecasting volatility of fuel oil futures in China: GARCH-type, SV or realized volatility models?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5546-5556.
  78. Herrera, Ana María & Hu, Liang & Pastor, Daniel, 2018. "Forecasting crude oil price volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 622-635.
  79. Nademi, Arash & Nademi, Younes, 2018. "Forecasting crude oil prices by a semiparametric Markov switching model: OPEC, WTI, and Brent cases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 757-766.
  80. Xie Haibin & Zhou Mo & Yu Mei & Hu Yi, 2014. "Forecasting the Crude Oil Price with Extreme Values," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 2(3), pages 193-205, June.
  81. Marcos Álvarez-Díaz, 2020. "Is it possible to accurately forecast the evolution of Brent crude oil prices? An answer based on parametric and nonparametric forecasting methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1285-1305, September.
  82. Sukanya Ghosh & P.P. Sengupta & Biman Maity, 2012. "Evidence On The Future Prospects Of Indian Thermal Power Sector In The Perspective Of Depleting Coal Reserve," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(1), pages 77-89.
  83. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  84. Giliola Frey & Matteo Manera & Anil Markandya & Elisa Scarpa, 2009. "Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting: A Critical Survey," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(01), pages 29-44, April.
  85. Loutia, Amine & Mellios, Constantin & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2016. "Do OPEC announcements influence oil prices?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 262-272.
  86. Ai Han & Yanan He & Yongmiao Hong & Shouyang Wang, 2013. "Forecasting Interval-valued Crude Oil Prices via Autoregressive Conditional Interval Models," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
  87. Costello, Alexandra & Asem, Ebenezer & Gardner, Eldon, 2008. "Comparison of historically simulated VaR: Evidence from oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2154-2166, September.
  88. Martina Assereto & Julie Byrne, 2020. "The Implications of Policy Uncertainty on Solar Photovoltaic Investment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-20, November.
  89. Yu-Wei Chen & Chui-Yu Chiu & Mu-Chun Hsiao, 2021. "An Auxiliary Index for Reducing Brent Crude Investment Risk—Evaluating the Price Relationships between Brent Crude and Commodities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-45, April.
  90. Chevallier, Julien & Ielpo, Florian, 2017. "Investigating the leverage effect in commodity markets with a recursive estimation approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 763-778.
  91. Hao Chen & Zhixin Liu & Yinpeng Zhang & You Wu, 2020. "The Linkages of Carbon Spot-Futures: Evidence from EU-ETS in the Third Phase," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-18, March.
  92. Sun, Qi & Xu, Weijun & Xiao, Weilin, 2013. "An empirical estimation for mean-reverting coal prices with long memory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 174-181.
IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.