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Trends versus Random Walks in Time Series Analysis

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Entorf, Horst, 1997. "Random walks with drifts: Nonsense regression and spurious fixed-effect estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 287-296, October.
  2. Sun, Hongguang & Pantula, Sastry G., 1999. "Testing for trends in correlated data," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 87-95, January.
  3. Muhammad Rehan & Jahanzaib Alvi & Süleyman Serdar Karaca, 2022. "Short Term Stress of Covid-19 on World Major Stock Indices," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(3), pages 527-568, September.
  4. Gadea Rivas, María Dolores & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2020. "Trends in distributional characteristics: Existence of global warming," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 153-174.
  5. Gérard Biau & Kevin Bleakley & László Györfi & György Ottucsák, 2010. "Nonparametric sequential prediction of time series," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 297-317.
  6. Phillips, Peter C. B., 2002. "New unit root asymptotics in the presence of deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 323-353, December.
  7. Michelacci, Claudio & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2000. "(Fractional) beta convergence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-153, February.
  8. Peter C. B. Phillips & Zhijie Xiao, 1998. "A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 423-470, December.
  9. Otto, Glenn & Wirjanto, Tony, 1989. "National Savings and Domestic Investment in the Long Run: Some Time Series Evidence for the U.S. and Canada," Queen's Institute for Economic Research Discussion Papers 275218, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
  10. Leonardo Becchetti & Roberto Rocci & Giovanni Trovato, 2007. "Industry and time specific deviations from fundamental values in a random coefficient model," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 257-276, March.
  11. Yong Glasure & Aie-Rie Lee & James Norris, 1999. "Level of economic development and political democracy revisited," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(4), pages 466-477, November.
  12. Roy, Anindya & Falk, Barry & Fuller, Wayne A., 1999. "Estimation of the Trend Model with Autoregressive Errors," ISU General Staff Papers 199907010700001328, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  13. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2013. "Unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 4, pages 61-94, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  14. Patrick Marsh, "undated". "A Measure of Distance for the Unit Root Hypothesis," Discussion Papers 05/02, Department of Economics, University of York.
  15. Bomhoff, E.J., 1991. "Stability of Velocity in the G-7 Countries : A Kalman Filter Approach," Other publications TiSEM 7e0b8fb6-7196-4519-9c82-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  16. Velasco, Carlos, 1999. "Non-stationary log-periodogram regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 325-371, August.
  17. Yicong Lin & Hanno Reuvers, 2020. "Cointegrating Polynomial Regressions with Power Law Trends: Environmental Kuznets Curve or Omitted Time Effects?," Papers 2009.02262, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
  18. Danny Quah, 1987. "What Do We Learn from Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series?," Working papers 469, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  19. Enache, Calcedonia, 2009. "A Cross-Spectral Analysis Of Romania’S Foreign Trade In Agricultural Products," Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Institute of Agricultural Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 117-124.
  20. Engel, Charles, 2005. "Some New Variance Bounds for Asset Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 949-955, October.
  21. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1995. "Bayesian model selection and prediction with empirical applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 289-331, September.
  22. Luigi Ermini, 1993. "Shock Persistence and Stochastic Trends in Australian Aggregate Output and Consumption," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(1), pages 34-43, March.
  23. Ai Deng, 2014. "Understanding Spurious Regression in Financial Economics," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 122-150.
  24. Skrobotov, Anton, 2022. "On robust testing for trend," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
  25. Choi, Chi-Young & Hu, Ling & Ogaki, Masao, 2008. "Robust estimation for structural spurious regressions and a Hausman-type cointegration test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 327-351, January.
  26. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2007. "A simple, robust and powerful test of the trend hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1302-1330, December.
  27. Fulgence Dominick Waryoba, 2018. "Yuan Revaluation and China’s External Trade Performance," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 4(2), pages 112-119, June.
  28. Michael S. H. Shih, 1996. "Les déterminants du niveau d'endettement de l'entreprise: une analyse de séries chronologiques constituées à partir des données contenues dans les déclarations de revenus produites aux États†U," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(2), pages 505-526, September.
  29. Chi-Young Choi & Ling Hu & Masao Ogaki, 2005. "Structural Spurious Regressions and A Hausman-type Cointegration Test," RCER Working Papers 517, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  30. Peter C. B. Phillips & Xiaohu Wang & Yonghui Zhang, 2019. "HAR Testing for Spurious Regression in Trend," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-28, December.
  31. Shahriyar Aliyev & Evžen Kočenda, 2023. "ECB monetary policy and commodity prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 274-304, February.
  32. Gilles Dufrénot & Valérie Mignon & Théo Naccache, 2009. "The slow convergence of per capita income between the developing countries: “growth resistance” and sometimes “growth tragedy”," Discussion Papers 09/03, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
  33. Perron, Pierre & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2009. "Estimating deterministic trends with an integrated or stationary noise component," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(1), pages 56-69, July.
  34. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Productivity and GDP: international evidence of persistence and trends over 130 years of data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1219-1246, March.
  35. La Vecchia, Davide & Ronchetti, Elvezio, 2019. "Saddlepoint approximations for short and long memory time series: A frequency domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 578-592.
  36. Chi-Young Choi; Ling Hu; Masao Ogaki, 2004. "A Spurious Regression Approach to Estimating Structural Parameters," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 555, Econometric Society.
  37. Schotman, P. & van Dijk, H. K., 1990. "Posterior Analysis Of Possibly Integrated Time Series With An Application To Real Gnp," Econometric Institute Archives 272482, Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  38. Giannini, Carlo & Lanzarotti, Antonio & Seghelini, Mario, 1995. "A traditional interpretation of macroeconomic fluctuations: The case of Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 131-155, March.
  39. Ernst, Matthew & Rodecker, Jared & Luvaga, Ebby & Alexander, Terence & Kliebenstein, James & MIRANOWSKI, JOHN A, 1999. "The Viability of Methane Production by Anaerobic Digestion on Iowa Swine Farms," ISU General Staff Papers 199910010700001329, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  40. Jesus Felipe & Carsten Holz, 2001. "Why do Aggregate Production Functions Work? Fisher's simulations, Shaikh's identity and some new results," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 261-285.
  41. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1988. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 468-497, December.
  42. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian & Marc Nerlove, 2006. "Time Series Analysis," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-019, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    • Diebold, F.X. & Kilian, L. & Nerlove, Marc, 2006. "Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 28556, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  43. Harvey David I & Leybourne Stephen J & Taylor A.M. Robert, 2006. "On Robust Trend Function Hypothesis Testing," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, March.
  44. Lawrence E. Raffalovich, 1994. "Detrending Time Series," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 22(4), pages 492-519, May.
  45. Gilles Dufrénot & Valérie Mignon & Théo Naccache, 2012. "Testing Catching-Up Between The Developing Countries: “Growth Resistance” And Sometimes “Growth Tragedy”," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 470-508, October.
  46. Zhang, Lingxiang, 2013. "Partial unit root and linear spurious regression: A Monte Carlo simulation study," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 189-191.
  47. Michel Fliess & C'edric Join, 2008. "Time Series Technical Analysis via New Fast Estimation Methods: A Preliminary Study in Mathematical Finance," Papers 0811.1561, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2008.
  48. C. John McDermott, 1998. "Testing the expectations model of the term structure in times of financial transition," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 663-669.
  49. Hany Guirguis & Glenn R. Mueller & Joshua Harris & Andrew G. Mueller, 2017. "Did Increased Large Bank Concentration of US Mortgage Loan Originations Explain Rising Originator Profits?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(3), pages 325-348.
  50. Xiao, Zhijie, 2004. "Estimating average economic growth in time series data with persistency," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 699-724, December.
  51. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2021. "Pitfalls in Bootstrapping Spurious Regression," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 163-217, December.
  52. Shankar Prasad Acharya, 2009. "Verification of Causality through VAR and Intervention Analysis: Econometric Modeling on Budget Deficit and Trade Deficit in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 21, pages 1-30, April.
  53. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2001. "Bootstrapping Spurious Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1330, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  54. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2005. "Challenges of trending time series econometrics," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 401-416.
  55. Hany Guirguis & Martin B. Schmidt, 2005. "Output Variability and the Money-Output Relationship," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 4(1), pages 53-66, April.
  56. Dean Corbae & Sam Ouliaris & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2002. "Band Spectral Regression with Trending Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 1067-1109, May.
  57. Mikael Linden, 2002. "Trend model testing of growth convergence in 15 OECD countries, 1946-1997," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 133-142.
  58. Cribari-Neto, Francisco, 1996. "On time series econometrics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 37-60.
  59. Marsh, Patrick, 2007. "The Available Information For Invariant Tests Of A Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 686-710, August.
  60. Lambert, David K. & Schuck, Eric C. & Jin, Hyun Joung & Koo, Won W., 2003. "The Effects Of Us/Canada Trade On Production Costs And Productivity," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22008, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  61. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:61:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
  62. Peter C.B. Phillips & Zhipeng Liao, 2012. "Series Estimation of Stochastic Processes: Recent Developments and Econometric Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1871, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  63. Marmol, Francesc, 1997. "Fractional integration versus trend stationary in time series analysis," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10498, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  64. Chris Stewart, 2011. "A note on spurious significance in regressions involving I(0) and I(1) variables," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 565-571, December.
  65. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2023. "Discrete Fourier Transforms of Fractional Processes with Econometric Applications," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Theory, volume 45, pages 3-71, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  66. Eduard J. Bomhoff, 1991. "Stability of Velocity in the Major Industrial Countries: A Kalman Filter Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 626-642, September.
  67. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris & Joon Y. Park, 1988. "Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Maintained Trend," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 880, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  68. Rappoport, Peter & White, Eugene N., 1993. "Was There a Bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 549-574, September.
  69. Michel Fliess & Cédric Join, 2008. "Time Series Technical Analysis via New Fast Estimation Methods: A Preliminary Study in Mathematical Finance," Post-Print inria-00338099, HAL.
  70. Hung, Ying-Shu & Lee, Chingnun & Chen, Pei-Fen, 2022. "China’s monetary policy and global stock markets: A new cointegration approach with smoothing structural changes," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 643-666.
  71. María Dolores Gadea Rivas & Jesús Gonzalo, 2022. "A tale of three cities: climate heterogeneity," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 475-511, May.
  72. Palaskas, Theodosios B. & Varangis, Panos N., 1991. "Is there excess co-movement of primary commodity prices? A co-integration test," Policy Research Working Paper Series 758, The World Bank.
  73. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1994. "Nonstationary Time Series and Cointegration: Recent Books and Themes for the Future," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1081, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  74. Olesia Kozlova, 2013. "Forward-Rate Bias, Imperfect Knowledge, and Risk: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries," 2013 Papers pko627, Job Market Papers.
  75. Enn Lun Yong, 2019. "Unemployment and the European Union, 2000–2017: structural exploration of distant past economic experience and future prosperity," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-21, December.
  76. Benjamin Volland, 2013. "The History of an Inferior Good: Beer Consumption in Germany," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2012-19, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
  77. Tsay, Wen-Jen & Chung, Ching-Fan, 2000. "The spurious regression of fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 155-182, May.
  78. Stewart, Chris, 2006. "Spurious correlation of I(0) regressors in models with an I(1) dependent variable," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 184-189, May.
  79. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1996. "Spurious Regression Unmasked," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1135, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  80. J. S. Shonkwiler, 1992. "A Structural Time Series Model Of Nevada Gross Taxable Gaming Revenues," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 22(3), pages 239-249, Winter.
  81. Jürgen Wolters & Uwe Hassler, 2006. "Unit Root Testing," Springer Books, in: Olaf Hübler & Jachim Frohn (ed.), Modern Econometric Analysis, chapter 4, pages 41-56, Springer.
  82. Jesus Felipe & John S.L. McCombie, 2013. "The Aggregate Production Function and the Measurement of Technical Change," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1975.
  83. D. Ventosa-Santaulària, 2009. "Spurious Regression," Journal of Probability and Statistics, Hindawi, vol. 2009, pages 1-27, August.
  84. Vougas, Dimitrios V., 2007. "GLS detrending and unit root testing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 222-229, December.
  85. Juan-Carlos Candeal & Antonio Montañés & Irene Olloqui, 2003. "Spurious Zipf's Law," ERSA conference papers ersa03p67, European Regional Science Association.
  86. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2003. "Laws and Limits of Econometrics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 26-52, March.
  87. Gadea Rivas, Marta Dolores & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2022. "Climate change heterogeneity: a new quantitative approach," UC3M Working papers. Economics 35442, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  88. Michael S. H. Shih, 1996. "Determinants of Corporate Leverage: A Time†Series Analysis Using U.S. Tax Return Data," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(2), pages 487-504, September.
  89. Brad R. Humphreys & Scott Schuh & Corey J.M. Williams, "undated". "Learning by Doing, Productivity, and Growth: New Evidence on the Link between Micro and Macro Data," Working Papers 24-02, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
  90. Yoshimasa Uematsu, 2011. "Regression with a Slowly Varying Regressor in the Presence of a Unit Root," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd11-209, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  91. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
  92. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, August.
  93. Dong Shin & Man-Suk Oh, 2003. "Tests for the order of integration against higher order integration," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 383-396, July.
  94. Liu, Qinghua & Shumway, C. Richard, 2003. "Induced Innovation Tests On Western American Agriculture: A Cointegration Analysis," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22237, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  95. Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària & José Eduardo Vera-Valdés, 2008. "Granger-Causality in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(61), pages 1-14.
  96. Marmol, Francesc & Velasco, Carlos, 2002. "Trend stationarity versus long-range dependence in time series analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 25-42, May.
  97. Masao Ogaki & Chi-Young Choi, 2001. "The Gauss-Markov Theorem and Spurious Regressions," Working Papers 01-13, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  98. Horvath, Balazs & Nerlove, Marc, 1994. "Some Econometric Implications of Learning," Working Papers 197815, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
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