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Citations for "Why is it so difficult to beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?"

by Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor

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  1. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2006. "Forecasting and Combining Competing Models of Exchange Rate Determination," CESifo Working Paper Series 1747, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Fong, Wai Mun, 2010. "A stochastic dominance analysis of yen carry trades," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1237-1246, June.
  3. Kyttack Hong & Dong-Hwan Oh, 2009. "Non-Linear Adjustment Process In Won/Dollar And Won/Yen Real Exchage Rates," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 111-130, December.
  4. Ahmad, Yamin & Lo, Ming Chien & Mykhaylova, Olena, 2013. "Volatility and persistence of simulated DSGE real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 38-41.
  5. Roman Hotvath, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," International Finance 0509006, EconWPA.
  6. Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2006. "Profits and Speculation in Intra-Day Foreign Exchange Trading," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-339, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  7. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.
  8. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  9. Carlo Altavilla, 2006. "The (Un-) Stable Relationship between The Exchange rate and its Fundamentals," Discussion Papers 6_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  10. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," International Finance Discussion Papers 714, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Bekiros, Stelios D., 2014. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: Co-movement, long-run relationships and short-run dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 117-134.
  12. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 9575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
  14. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Reality checks and nested forecast model comparisons," Working Papers 2010-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  15. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "Idiosyncratic volatility, economic fundamentals, and foreign exchange rates," Working Papers 2005-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  16. Paul Hubert, 2009. "Informational Advantage and Influence of Communicating Central Banks," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  17. Francis X. Diebold, 2012. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests," NBER Working Papers 18391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. He, Huizhen & Ranjbar, Omid & Chang, Tsangyao, 2013. "Purchasing power parity in transition countries: Old wine with new bottle," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 24-32.
  19. I Paya & D Peel, 2005. "A new analysis of the determinants of the real dollar-sterling exchange rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers 565953, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  20. Frédérique Bec & Anders Rahbek & Neil Shephard, 2008. "The ACR model: a multivariate dynamic mixture autoregression," THEMA Working Papers 2008-11, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  21. Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  22. Stefan Reitz & Georg Stadtmann, 2005. "Consensus among FX forecasters?," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 223-227, July.
  23. Christodoulakis, George & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel, 2013. "Behavioural asymmetries in the G7 foreign exchange market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 261-270.
  24. Mahesh Kumar Tambi, 2005. "FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATE :A Uni-variate out of sample Approach," International Finance 0506005, EconWPA.
  25. Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2005. "The process followed by PPP data. On the properties of linearity tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2515-2522.
  26. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2009. "Testing for efficiency in selected developing foreign exchange markets: An equilibrium-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 155-166, January.
  27. Audretsch, David B. & Stadtmann, Georg, 2005. "Biases in FX-Forecasts: Evidence from Panel Data," Research Notes 19, Deutsche Bank Research.
  28. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "The Use of Predictive Regressions at Alternative Horizons in Finance and Economics," NBER Technical Working Papers 0298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2005. "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions, and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 755-774.
  30. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies," NBER Working Papers 17150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Chung-Hua Shen & Shyh-Wei Chen, 2004. "Long swing in appreciation and short swing in depreciation and does the market not know it?—the case of Taiwan," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 195-213.
  32. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5fc508pt, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  33. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Forecast comparisons in unstable environments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 595-620.
  34. Lahtinen, Markus & Mäki-Fränt, Petri, 2007. "The Exchange Rate Targeting of Central Banks Revised: The Role of Long-term Interest Rates," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-28, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  35. Nicolau, João, 2011. "Purchasing Power Parity analyzed through a continuous-time version of the ESTAR model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 182-185, March.
  36. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael, 2007. "Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: longer-term, nonlinear orientation on PPP," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-376, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  37. Ronald MacDonald & Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky, 2009. "Exchange rate forecasters’ performance: evidence of skill?," Working Papers 2009_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  38. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Palomba, Giulio, 2009. "Nonlinear adjustment in US bond yields: An empirical model with conditional heteroskedasticity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 659-667, May.
  39. Paul De Grauwe & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2007. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: a non-linear relationship?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 37-54.
  40. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2004. "Temporal Aggregation Of An Estar Process: Some Implications For Purchasing Power Parity Adjustment," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-25, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  41. Bec, Frédérique & Zeng, Songlin, 2013. "Are Southeast Asian real exchange rates mean reverting?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 265-282.
  42. Sarno, Lucio & Daniel l Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2003. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 183, Royal Economic Society.
  43. Nikolaou, Kleopatra, 2008. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 664-679, May.
  44. Ken Johnston & David Carter & John Hatem, 2005. "Exchange rates, and fundamental variables: a semi-parametric analysis of binary choice," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(16), pages 1915-1924.
  45. Sarmidi, Tamat, 2008. "Exchange Rates Predictability in Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 16580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  46. Frédérique BEC & Mélika BEN SALEM & Ronald MACDONALD, 2006. "Real exchange rates and real interest rates : a nonlinear perspective," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2006024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  47. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada.
  48. Michael Froemmel & Ronald Macdonald & Lukas Menkhoff, 2004. "Markov Switching Regimes In A Monetary Exchange Rate Model," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 119, Royal Economic Society.
  49. Junttila, Juha & Korhonen, Marko, 2011. "Nonlinearity and time-variation in the monetary model of exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 288-302, June.
  50. Yunus Aksoy & Kurmas Akdogan, 2006. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Is there a Role for Nonlinearities in Real Time?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 12, Society for Computational Economics.
  51. Stefan Reitz & Jan C. Rülke & Mark P. Taylor, 2011. "On the Nonlinear Influence of Reserve Bank of Australia Interventions on Exchange Rates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(278), pages 465-479, 09.
  52. Alfred Haug & Syed Basher, 2011. "Linear or nonlinear cointegration in the purchasing power parity relationship?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 185-196.
  53. Buncic, Daniel, 2009. "Understanding forecast failure in ESTAR models of real exchange rates," MPRA Paper 13121, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  54. Chien-Chung Nieh & Yu-Shan Wang, 2005. "ARDL Approach to the Exchange Rate Overshooting in Taiwan," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 55-71, August.
  55. Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Modeling and Forecasting Stock Returns: Exploiting the Futures Market, Regime Shifts and International Spillovers," Working Papers wp04-11, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  56. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Lee, Hock-Ann & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2005. "Purchasing power parity in Asian economies: further evidence from rank tests for cointegration," MPRA Paper 15530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  57. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-352, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  58. López Villavicencio, Antonia, 2008. "Nonlinearities or outliers in real exchange rates?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 714-730, July.
  59. Gozgor, Giray, 2011. "Panel unit root tests of purchasing power parity hypothesis: Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 34370, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  60. Manzan, S., 2003. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Stock Prices," CeNDEF Working Papers 03-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  61. Alfred A. Haug & Syed A. Basher, 2003. "Unit Roots, Nonlinear Cointegration and Purchasing Power Parity," Working Papers 2003_1, York University, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2005.
  62. Frédéric Karamé & Lise Patureau & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2003. "Limited participation and exchange rate dynamics : does theory meet the data ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v04013, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  63. Pippenger, John, 2004. "The Modern Theory of the LOP and PPP: Some Implications," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt60z886n7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  64. Hsing, Y, 2009. "Functional Forms and PPP: The Case of Canada, the EU, Japan, and the U.K," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
  65. Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Chi Liu, 2010. "Long-run purchasing power parity with asymmetric adjustment: evidence from nine major oil-exporting countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 263-274.
  66. Manzan, S. & Westerhoff, F., 2002. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Exchange Rate Dynamics and Predictability," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-14, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  67. Månsson, Kristofer & Sjölander, Pär, 2014. "Testing for nonlinear panel unit roots under cross-sectional dependency — With an application to the PPP hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 121-132.
  68. Richard Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2001. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," NBER Working Papers 8601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  69. Karras, Georgios & Lee, Jin Man & Stokes, Houston, 2005. "Sources of exchange-rate volatility: Impulses or propagation?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 213-226.
  70. Domenico Ferraro & Ken Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 11-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  71. Stefan Reitz & Ulf Slopek, 2009. "Non-Linear Oil Price Dynamics: A Tale of Heterogeneous Speculators?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10, pages 270-283, 08.
  72. Jorge Selaive & Vicente Tuesta, 2006. "Can fluctuations in the consumption-wealth ratio help to predict exchange rates?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1251-1263.
  73. Vadim Marmer, 2005. "Nonlinearity, Nonstationarity and Spurious Forecasts," Econometrics 0503002, EconWPA, revised 15 Dec 2005.
  74. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2009. "Detecting Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates from a Multiple Regime STAR Model," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-18, CIRANO.
  75. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2009. "Evidence on the contrarian trading in foreign exchange markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1420-1431, November.
  76. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: which one should we use?," Working Paper Series 0195, European Central Bank.
  77. Omer, Muhammad & de Haan, Jakob & Scholtens, Bert, 2013. "Does Uncovered Interest rate Parity Hold After All?," MPRA Paper 47572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  78. Céline Gauthier & Fu Chun Li, 2006. "Linking Real Activity and Financial Markets: The Bonds, Equity, and Money (BEAM) Model," Working Papers 06-42, Bank of Canada.
  79. Joseph V. Balagtas & Matthew T. Holt, 2009. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 87-105.
  80. Christian Bauer & Bernhard Herz, 2004. "Technical trading and the volatility of exchange rates," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 399-415.
  81. Chang, Tsangyao & Tzeng, Han-Wen, 2011. "Long-run purchasing power parity with asymmetric adjustment: Further evidence from nine transition countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1383-1391, May.
  82. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 944, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  83. Yamin Ahmad & Stuart Glosser, 2007. "Searching for Nonlinearities in Real Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 09-01, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2009.
  84. Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," International Finance Discussion Papers 779, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  85. Marie Bessec, 2005. "Les économistes sont-ils chartistes ou fondamentalistes ? Une enquête auprès de quatre-vingt chercheurs français," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 169(3), pages 239-249.
  86. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Anna Orthofer, 2010. "Modeling and Predicting the EUR/USD Exchange Rate: The Role of Nonlinear Adjustments to Purchasing Power Parity," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 64–76.
  87. Roche, M.J. & Moore. M.J., 2002. "Volatile and persistent real exchange rates without the contrivance of sticky prices," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1160402, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  88. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," NBER Working Papers 10607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  89. Christopoulos, Dimitris & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2010. "Current account sustainability in the US: What did we really know about it?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 442-459, April.
  90. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  91. Josh Stillwagon, 2013. "Currency Risk and Imperfect Knowledge: Volatility and Long Swings around Benchmark Values," Working Papers 1315, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
  92. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 357-387 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  93. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin, 2010. "Investing under model uncertainty: Decision based evaluation of exchange rate forecasts in the US, UK and Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 403-422, April.
  94. Yoon, Gawon, 2010. "Do real exchange rates really follow threshold autoregressive or exponential smooth transition autoregressive models?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 605-612, March.
  95. Ahmad, Yamin & Craighead, William D., 2011. "Temporal aggregation and purchasing power parity persistence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 817-830, September.
  96. Georg Strasser, 2011. "The Efficiency of the Global Markets for Final Goods and Productive Capabilities," 2011 Meeting Papers 576, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  97. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2003. "Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market in a Model with Noise Traders," Working Papers 162003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  98. Jose Eduardo de A. Ferreira, 2006. "Periodically Collapsing Rational Bubbles in Exchange Rates: A Markov-Switching Analysis for a Sample of Industrialised Markets," Studies in Economics 0604, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  99. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George, 2013. "Predictability of currency carry trades and asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 139-163.
  100. Dimitris, Christopoulos & Miguel, Leon-Ledesma, 2009. "Smooth Breaks and Nonlinear Mean Reversion: Post-Bretton Woods Real Exchange Rates," MPRA Paper 22553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  101. Martin Berka, 2009. "Nonlinear Adjustment in Law of One Price Deviations and Physical Characteristics of Goods," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 51-73, 02.
  102. A M Spiru, 2007. "Inflation convergence in the new EU member states," Working Papers 590260, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  103. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis," Research Working Paper RWP 04-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  104. Roger Guerra, 2003. "Nonlinear adjustment towards purchasing power parity: the Swiss Franc-German Mark case," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(I), pages 83-100, March.
  105. Chang, Tsangyao & Lee, Chia-Hao & Liu, Wen-Chi, 2012. "Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity for ASEAN countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 325-331.
  106. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins, 2014. "Risk Assessment of the Brazilian FX Rate," Working Papers Series 344, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  107. Nikolaou, Kleopatra, 2006. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: evidence from regression quantiles," Working Paper Series 0667, European Central Bank.
  108. Reitz, Stefan, 2002. "Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Expectations: Evidence from the Daily DM/US-Dollar Exchange Rate," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  109. Norman Swanson & Valentina Corradi, 2006. "Nonparametric Bootstrap Procedures for Predictive Inference Based on Recursive Estimation Schemes," Departmental Working Papers 200618, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  110. Efthymios Pavlidis & Nicos Pavlidis, 2012. "Dynamic Estimation of Trade Costs from Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 21883757, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  111. Tsangyao Chang & Hsu-Ling Chang & Hsiao-Ping Chu & Chi-Wei Su, 2006. "Does PPP hold in African countries? Further evidence based on a highly dynamic non-linear (logistic) unit root test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(20), pages 2453-2459.
  112. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.
  113. Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky & Michael Schröder, 2008. "Heterogeneity in Exchange Rate Expectations: Evidence on the Chartist-Fundamentalist Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 2502, CESifo Group Munich.
  114. Cees Diks & Roy van der Weide, 2003. "Herding, A-synchronous Updating and Heterogeneity in Memory in a CBS," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-103/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  115. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "Forecasting exchange rates: The multi-state Markov-switching model with smoothing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 342-362, April.
  116. Lin, Jeng-Bau & Liang, Chin-Chia & Yeh, Ming-Liang, 2011. "Examining nonlinear dynamics of exchange rates and forecasting performance based on the exchange rate parity of four Asian economies," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 79-85, March.
  117. Diks, C.G.H. & Weide, R. van der, 2003. "Herding, A-synchronous Updating and Heterogeneity in Memory in a CBS," CeNDEF Working Papers 03-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  118. Hui Jun Zhang & Jean-Marie Dufour & John Galbraith, 2013. "Exchange rates and commodity prices: measuring causality at multiple horizons," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-39, CIRANO.
  119. repec:wyi:wpaper:001961 is not listed on IDEAS
  120. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2002. "The Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals. A Chaotic Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 639, CESifo Group Munich.
  121. Pierdzioch, Christian & Schäfer, Dirk & Stadtmann, Georg, 2010. "Fly with the eagles or scratch with the chickens? Zum Herdenverhalten von Wechselkursprognostikern," Discussion Papers 287, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  122. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39.
  123. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2005. "The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-31, January.
  124. Dietmar Janetzko, 2014. "Using Twitter to Model the EUR/USD Exchange Rate," Papers 1402.1624, arXiv.org.
  125. Clements, Kenneth & Lan, Yihui & Roberts, John, 2008. "Exchange-rate economics for the resources sector," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 102-117, June.
  126. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt0jc800x9, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  127. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
  128. JamesR. Lothian & MarkP. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
  129. Tsangyao Chang & Chia-hao Lee & Guochen Pan, 2012. "Purchasing Power Parity in African Countries: Further Evidence based on the ADL Test for Threshold Cointegration," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 220-228.
  130. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889.
  131. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: a nonlinear microstructural analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  132. Yamin Ahmad, 2007. "The Effects of Small Sample Bias in Threshold Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 07-01, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2007.
  133. Nelson Mark & Young-Kyu Moh, 2003. "Official Interventions and Occasional Violations of Uncovered Interest Party in the Dollar-DM Market," NBER Working Papers 9948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  134. Beckmann, Joscha, 2013. "Nonlinear adjustment, purchasing power parity and the role of nominal exchange rates and prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 176-190.
  135. Luisa Corrado & Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2007. "Exchange Rate Monitoring Bands: Theory and Policy," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 146, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  136. Slim Chaouachi & Zied Ftiti & Frederic Teulon, 2014. "Explaining the Tunisian Real Exchange: Long Memory versus Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2014-147, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  137. Xiong, Tao & Bao, Yukun & Hu, Zhongyi, 2013. "Beyond one-step-ahead forecasting: Evaluation of alternative multi-step-ahead forecasting models for crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 405-415.
  138. Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2006. "On the speed of adjustment in ESTAR models when allowance is made for bias in estimation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 272-277, February.
  139. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43, January.
  140. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Imperfect Information and the Expectations Channel," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
  141. Kathryn Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2005. "What Defines 'News' in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Papers 547, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  142. Jian Wang & Jason J. Wu, 2008. "The Taylor rule and forecast intervals for exchange rates," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 22, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  143. Park, Cheolbeom & Park, Sookyung, 2013. "Exchange rate predictability and a monetary model with time-varying cointegration coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 394-410.
  144. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "The exchange rate and macroeconomic determinants: Time-varying transitional dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 197-220, August.
  145. H. L. Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2003. "Time-Varying Thresholds," IMF Working Papers 03/181, International Monetary Fund.
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