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Citations for "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time"

by Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon

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  1. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2001. "UK Inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: The Role of Output Gap Mismeasurement," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics Under Model Uncertainty. Evidence from the US and the Euro Area," CSEF Working Papers, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy 231, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  3. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers 2011-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2006. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 12560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Gamber, Edward N. & Hakes, David R., 2006. "The Taylor rule and the appointment cycle of the chairperson of the Federal Reserve," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 55-66.
  6. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2003. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-01, CIRANO.
  8. Gerit Vogt, 2007. "Analyse der Prognoseeigenschaften von ifo-Konjunkturindikatoren unter Echtzeitbedingungen," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 227(1), pages 87-101, February.
  9. Musso, Alberto & Stracca, Livio & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "Instability and nonlinearity in the euro area Phillips curve," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0811, European Central Bank.
  10. Stefan Gerlach & John Lewis, 2014. "Zero lower bound, ECB interest rate policy and the financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 865-886, May.
  11. Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-varying U.S. inflation dynamics and the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Working Paper Series 2006-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. Jeremy M. Piger & Robert H. Rasche, 2006. "Inflation: do expectations trump the gap?," Working Papers 2006-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  13. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Emi Mise & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Real-Time Representations of the Output Gap," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 792-804, November.
  14. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Manuel Ramos Francia & Alberto Torres García, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in Mexico: A Characterization Using the New Phillips Curve," Working Papers 2006-15, Banco de México.
  16. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2005. "Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 498-527, April.
  17. Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," Working Paper, Norges Bank 2008/23, Norges Bank.
  18. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2003. "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence," Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City RWP 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  19. Kamada, Koichiro, 2005. "Real-time estimation of the output gap in Japan and its usefulness for inflation forecasting and policymaking," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-332, December.
  20. Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Odile Chagny & Matthieu Lemoine, 2004. "An estimation of the euro area potential output with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) 2004-14, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  22. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2010. "Real-time Inflation Forecast Densities from Ensemble Phillips Curves," CAMA Working Papers 2010-34, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  23. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
  24. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Working Papers 2008-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  25. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02.
  26. John Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2008. "The Calibration Of Probabilistic Economic Forecasts," Departmental Working Papers, McGill University, Department of Economics 2008-05, McGill University, Department of Economics.
  27. Robert L. Hetzel, 2005. "What difference would inflation make?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 45-72.
  28. Michael Dotsey & Shigeru Fujita & Tom Stark, 2011. "Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?," Working Papers 11-40, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  29. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "The Forecasting Performance of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 7763, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. Ellen E. Meade & Daniel L. Thornton, 2010. "The Phillips Curve and US Monetary Policy: What the FOMC Transcripts Tell Us," Working Papers, American University, Department of Economics 2010-18, American University, Department of Economics.
  31. Matthieu LEMOINE & Odile CHAGNY, 2005. "Estimating the potential output of the euro area with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics 344, Society for Computational Economics.
  32. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
  33. Hjelm, Göran & Jönsson, Kristian, 2010. "In Search of a Method for Measuring the Output Gap of the Swedish Economy," Working Paper, National Institute of Economic Research 115, National Institute of Economic Research.
  34. Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye & Douglas Laxton, 2002. "Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff," IMF Working Papers 02/220, International Monetary Fund.
  35. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Improving Forecast Accuracy By Combining Recursive And Rolling Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 363-395, 05.
  36. Richard G. Anderson, 2006. "Replicability, real-time data, and the science of economic research: FRED, ALFRED, and VDC," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 81-93.
  37. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The reliability of Canadian output-gap estimates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 373-393, December.
  38. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 2007-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  39. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose, 2014. "Indeterminacy and Forecastability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(1), pages 243-251, 02.
  40. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve : lessons from single-equation econometric estimation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 361-395.
  41. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1157, European Central Bank.
  42. Troy Matheson, 2006. "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  43. Ana Beatriz Galv�o, 2007. "Changes in Predictive Ability with Mixed Frequency Data," Working Papers, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance 595, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  44. Adriana Z. Fernandez & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Forecasting the end of the global recession: did we miss the early signs?," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
  45. Mohamed A. Osman & Rosmy Jean Louis & Faruk Balli, 2009. "Output gap and inflation nexus: the case of United Arab Emirates," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 118-135.
  46. Richard G. Anderson & Charles S. Gascon, 2009. "Estimating U.S. output growth with vintage data in a state-space framework," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 349-370.
  47. Hatipoglu, Ozan & Alper, C. Emre, 2007. "Estimating Central Bank Behavior in Emerging Markets: The Case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 7107, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2008.
  48. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2011. "Measuring Output Gap Nowcast Uncertainty," CAMA Working Papers 2011-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  49. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  50. Bernhardsen, Tom & Eitrheim, Øyvind & Jore, Anne Sofie & Røisland, Øistein, 2004. "Real-time Data for Norway: Challenges for Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  51. Hubrich, Kirstin & West, Kenneth D., 2009. "Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1030, European Central Bank.
  52. Milas, Costas & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2012. "Financial conditions and nonlinearities in the European Central Bank (ECB) reaction function: In-sample and out-of-sample assessment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 173-189, January.
  53. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2004. "The use of real-time information in Phillips curve relationships for the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,28, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  54. Lemoine, Matthieu & Mazzi, Gian Luigi & Monperrus-Veroni, Paola & Reynes, Frédéric, 2008. "Real time estimation of potential output and output gap for theeuro-area: comparing production function with unobserved componentsand SVAR approaches," MPRA Paper 13128, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2008.
  55. Charles R. Nelson, 2006. "The Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition in Retrospect and Prospect," Working Papers, University of Washington, Department of Economics UWEC-2007-30, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  56. Adriana Z. Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "A real-time historical database for the OECD," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 96, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  57. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  58. Guérin, Pierre & Maurin, Laurent & Mohr, Matthias, 2011. "Trend-cycle decomposition of output and euro area inflation forecasts: a real-time approach based on model combination," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1384, European Central Bank.
  59. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009. "Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics 0909, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  60. Frédérick Demers, 2003. "The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting," Working Papers 03-32, Bank of Canada.
  61. Isabell Koske & Nigel Pain, 2008. "The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 621, OECD Publishing.
  62. Fernández, Adriana Z. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2010. "The changing nature of the U.S. economic influence in the World," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 196-209, March.
  63. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Brubakk, Leif & Jore, Anne Sofie, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Memorandum 11/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  64. Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  65. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2011. "Cost-based Phillips Curve forecasts of inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 553-567.
  66. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Simon van Norden, 2002. "La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada," Working Papers 02-10, Bank of Canada.
  67. Andreas Billmeier, 2004. "Measuring a Roller Coaster," IMF Working Papers 04/57, International Monetary Fund.
  68. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  69. W A Razzak, 2002. "Monetary policy and forecasting inflation with and without the output gap," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  70. John Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2009. "Calibration and Resolution Diagnostics for Bank of England Density Forecasts," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-36, CIRANO.
  71. Jean-Stéphane MESONNIER, 2007. "The predictive content of the real interest rate gap for macroeconomic variables in the euro area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006, Money Macro and Finance Research Group 102, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  72. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Working Paper Series 2003-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  73. Antonio Bassanetti & Michele Caivano & Alberto Locarno, 2013. "Modelling italian potential output and the output gap," Working Papers 7, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
  74. Adriana Z. Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2008. "The relative performance of alternative Taylor rule specifications," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jun.
  75. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2010. "Have economic models' forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 808-835, October.
  76. Fernandez, Adriana Z. & Koenig, Evan F. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2010. "Can alternative Taylor-rule specifications describe Federal Reserve policy decisions?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 733-757, November.
  77. Agnieszka Markiewicz & Andreas Pick, 2013. "Adaptive Learning and Survey Data," CDMA Working Paper Series 201305, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  78. Qin, Ting & Enders, Walter, 2008. "In-sample and out-of-sample properties of linear and nonlinear Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 428-443, March.
  79. Galbraith, John W. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Kernel-based calibration diagnostics for recession and inflation probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1041-1057, October.
  80. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2014. "Output-gaps in the PIIGS Economies: An Ingredient of a Greek Tragedy," GEMF Working Papers 2014-06, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  81. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Michael Graff, 2009. "Schätzung der Outputlücke," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 3(2), pages 55-67, June.
  82. Tom Bernhardsen & ØYvind Eitrheim, 2005. "Real-time data for Norway: Output gap revisions and challenges for monetary policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics 274, Society for Computational Economics.
  83. L Christopher Plantier & Ozer Karagedikli, 2005. "Do so-called multivariate filters have better revision properties? An empirical analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics 250, Society for Computational Economics.
  84. Michael Graff, 2004. "Estimates of the output gap in real time: how well have we been doing?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  85. Pierre Siklos, 2006. "What Can We Learn from Comprehensive Data Revisions for Forecasting Inflation: Some US Evidence," Working Papers, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics eg0049, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006.
  86. Ramos-Francia, Manuel & Torres, Alberto, 2008. "Inflation dynamics in Mexico: A characterization using the New Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 274-289, December.