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How Should the Distant Future be Discounted when Discount Rates are Uncertain?

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  1. Discouting with uncertain discount rates
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2010-02-04 21:12:00

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  1. van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. & Botzen, W.J.W., 2015. "Monetary valuation of the social cost of CO2 emissions: A critical survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 33-46.
  2. Newbery, David, 2018. "Policies for decarbonizing a liberalized power sector," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-24.
  3. Chan, Ying Tung, 2020. "Carbon policies and productivity uncertainty: An intertemporal analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  4. Lee H. Endress & James A. Roumasset & Christopher A. Wada, 2020. "Do Natural Disasters Make Sustainable Growth Impossible?," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 319-345, July.
  5. Traeger, Christian P., 2012. "What's the Rate? Disentangling the Weitzman and the Gollier Effect," CUDARE Working Papers 121932, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  6. Gonzalez, Francisco M. & Lazkano, Itziar & Smulders, Sjak A., 2018. "Intergenerational altruism with future bias," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 436-454.
  7. Weitzman, Martin L., 2010. "Risk-adjusted gamma discounting," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 1-13, July.
  8. Loïc Berger & Johannes Emmerling, 2020. "Welfare As Equity Equivalents," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 727-752, September.
  9. Gollier, Christian, 2012. "Asset pricing with uncertain betas: A long-term perspective," IDEI Working Papers 752, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  10. Bartolini, Stefano & Sarracino, Francesco, 2018. "Do People Care About Future Generations? Derived Preferences from Happiness Data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 253-275.
  11. Gollier, Christian, 2012. "A theory of rational short-termism with uncertain betas," LERNA Working Papers 12.14.371, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
  12. Johansson-Stenman, Olof & Sterner, Thomas, 2015. "Discounting and relative consumption," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 19-33.
  13. Matthew Adler & Nicolas Treich, 2015. "Prioritarianism and Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 279-308, October.
  14. Ströbel, Johannes & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2021. "What do you think about climate finance?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16622, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Steve Newbold & Charles Griffiths & Christopher C. Moore & Ann Wolverton & Elizabeth Kopits, 2010. "The "Social Cost of Carbon" Made Simple," NCEE Working Paper Series 201007, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Aug 2010.
  16. J. Bickel & Shubham Agrawal, 2013. "Reexamining the economics of aerosol geoengineering," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 993-1006, August.
  17. Olga Špačková & Daniel Straub, 2015. "Cost‐Benefit Analysis for Optimization of Risk Protection Under Budget Constraints," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(5), pages 941-959, May.
  18. Christian Gollier, 2019. "A Personal Biography of Marty Weitzman," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(3), pages 943-947, November.
  19. Szekeres, Szabolcs, 2020. "Correcting the Error in Gamma Discounting," MPRA Paper 102232, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Jul 2020.
  20. Bård Harstad, 2013. "Investment Policy for Time-Inconsistent Discounters," CESifo Working Paper Series 4546, CESifo.
  21. Traeger, Christian P., 2013. "Discounting under uncertainty: Disentangling the Weitzman and the Gollier effect," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 573-582.
  22. Eric Fesselmeyer & Haoming Liu & Alberto Salvo, 2022. "Declining discount rates in Singapore's market for privately developed apartments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 330-350, March.
  23. Kent D. Daniel & Robert B. Litterman & Gernot Wagner, 2016. "Applying Asset Pricing Theory to Calibrate the Price of Climate Risk," NBER Working Papers 22795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Hjort, Ingrid, 2016. "Potential Climate Risks in Financial Markets: A Literature Overview," Memorandum 01/2016, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  25. Rick Van der Ploeg, 2020. "Discounting And Climate Policy," OxCarre Working Papers 244, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  26. Wolfgang Buchholz, 2014. "Discounting in an Uncertain World - Disentangling the Debate on the Weitzman-Gollier Puzzle," CESifo Working Paper Series 4967, CESifo.
  27. Freeman, Mark C. & Groom, Ben, 2016. "How certain are we about the certainty-equivalent longterm social discount rate?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67258, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  28. Anchugina, Nina & Ryan, Matthew & Slinko, Arkadii, 2019. "Mixing discount functions: Implications for collective time preferences," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-14.
  29. Michalis Skourtos & Dimitris Damigos & Areti Kontogianni & Christos Tourkolias & Alistair Hunt, 2019. "Embedding Preference Uncertainty for Environmental Amenities in Climate Change Economic Assessments: A “Random” Step Forward," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-22, October.
  30. Christian Gollier, 2011. "On the Underestimation of the Precautionary Effect in Discounting," CESifo Working Paper Series 3536, CESifo.
  31. Szekeres, Szabolcs, 2016. "Testing Gollier and Weitzman’s Solution of the “Weitzman-Gollier Puzzle”," MPRA Paper 72593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Isha Chawla & Joseph Svec, 2023. "Household savings and present bias among Chinese couples: A household bargaining approach," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 648-672, January.
  33. Sigit Perdana and Rod Tyers, 2020. "Global Climate Change Mitigation: Strategic Incentives," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 183-206.
  34. Barrage, Lint, 2018. "Be careful what you calibrate for: Social discounting in general equilibrium," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 33-49.
  35. Fridstrøm, Lasse & Østli, Vegard, 2017. "The vehicle purchase tax as a climate policy instrument," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 168-189.
  36. Orlando Gomes & Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes & Tiago Sequeira, 2014. "Exponential discounting bias," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 113(1), pages 31-57, September.
  37. Martin Weitzman, 2012. "The Ramsey Discounting Formula for a Hidden-State Stochastic Growth Process," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 53(3), pages 309-321, November.
  38. Rintaro Yamaguchi, 2019. "Intergenerational Discounting with Intragenerational Inequality in Consumption and the Environment," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(4), pages 957-972, August.
  39. Broughel, James, 2017. "The Social Discount Rate: A Baseline Approach," Working Papers 06956, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
  40. Kame Babilla, Thierry, 2014. "Food Price Volatility implications for Trade and Monetary Policy between Nigeria and CEMAC: a Bayesian DSGE model approach," Conference papers 332525, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
  41. Freeman, Mark C. & Groom, Ben & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2015. "Declining discount rates and the Fisher Effect: Inflated past, discounted future?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 32-49.
  42. Fesselmeyer, Eric & Liu, Haoming & Salvo, Alberto, 2016. "How Do Households Discount over Centuries? Evidence from Singapore's Private Housing Market," IZA Discussion Papers 9862, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  43. Kollenberg, Sascha & Taschini, Luca, 2016. "Emissions trading systems with cap adjustments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 20-36.
  44. Tiziano De Angelis & Peter Tankov & Olivier David Zerbib, 2022. "Climate Impact Investing," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 676 JEL Classification: G, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  45. Graeme Guthrie, 2021. "Discounting, Disagreement, and the Option to Delay," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(1), pages 95-133, September.
  46. Tas Thamo & David J. Pannell & Marit E. Kragt & Michael J. Robertson & Maksym Polyakov, 2017. "Dynamics and the economics of carbon sequestration: common oversights and their implications," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(7), pages 1095-1111, October.
  47. Szekeres, Szabolcs, 2015. "When should the distant future not be discounted at increasing discount rates?," MPRA Paper 63437, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  48. Gollier, Christian, 2016. "Gamma discounters are short-termist," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 83-90.
  49. Hultkrantz, Lars & A. Krüger, Niclas & Mantalos, Panagiotis, 2014. "Risk-adjusted long-term social rates of discount for transportation infrastructure investment," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 70-81.
  50. Hübler, Michael & Pothen, Frank, 2017. "Trade-induced productivity gains reduce incentives to impose strategic tariffs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 420-431.
  51. Szekeres, Szabolcs, 2015. "The Mechanics of the Weitzman-Gollier Puzzles," MPRA Paper 64286, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  52. Berger, Loïc & Emmerling, Johannes, 2017. "Welfare as Simple(x) Equity Equivalents," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 254044, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
  53. Alain Quinet, 2019. "What Value Do We Attach to Climate Action?," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 510-511-5, pages 165-179.
  54. Lawrence H. Goulder & Roberton C. Williams, 2012. "The Choice Of Discount Rate For Climate Change Policy Evaluation," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(04), pages 1-18.
  55. Cherbonnier, Frédéric & Gollier, Christian, 2018. "Risk-adjusted social discount rates," TSE Working Papers 18-972, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Dec 2020.
  56. Fleurbaey, Marc & Zuber, Stéphane, 2015. "Discounting, risk and inequality: A general approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 34-49.
  57. Newbery, D., 2017. "The economics of air pollution from fossil fuels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1719, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  58. Zerrahn, Alexander, 2017. "Wind Power and Externalities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 245-260.
  59. Koen Vermeylen, 2013. "The Consumption Discount Rate for the Distant Future (if we do not die out)," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-201/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
  60. Freeman, Mark C. & Groom, Ben, 2016. "How certain are we about the certainty-equivalent long term social discount rate?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 152-168.
  61. Anchugina, Nina & Ryan, Matthew & Slinko, Arkadii, 2017. "Hyperbolic discounting of the far-distant future," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 140-143.
  62. Borissov, Kirill & Pakhnin, Mikhail & Puppe, Clemens, 2017. "On discounting and voting in a simple growth model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 185-204.
  63. Sussman Fran & Weaver Christopher P. & Grambsch Anne, 2014. "Challenges in applying the paradigm of welfare economics to climate change," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 347-376, December.
  64. Thomas Eichner & Rüdiger Pethig, 2015. "Efficient Management of Insecure Fossil Fuel Imports through Taxing Domestic Green Energy?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 17(5), pages 724-751, October.
  65. Cees A. Withagen, 2018. "The Social Cost of Carbon and the Ramsey Rule," CESifo Working Paper Series 7359, CESifo.
  66. Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom, 2015. "Positively Gamma Discounting: Combining the Opinions of Experts on the Social Discount Rate," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 1015-1024, June.
  67. Pascual, Unai & Termansen, Mette & Hedlund, Katarina & Brussaard, Lijbert & Faber, Jack H. & Foudi, Sébastien & Lemanceau, Philippe & Jørgensen, Sisse Liv, 2015. "On the value of soil biodiversity and ecosystem services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 11-18.
  68. Aline Chiabai & Ibon Galarraga & Anil Markandya & Unai Pascual, 2013. "The Equivalency Principle for Discounting the Value of Natural Assets: An Application to an Investment Project in the Basque Coast," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(4), pages 535-550, December.
  69. Nina Anchugina & Matthew Ryan & Arkadii Slinko, 2017. "Hyperbolic Discounting of the Far-Distant Future," Papers 1702.01362, arXiv.org.
  70. Serban Raicu & Mihaela Popa & Dorinela Costescu, 2022. "Uncertainties Influencing Transportation System Performances," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-15, June.
  71. Patrick Ilg & Silke Gabbert & Hans‐Peter Weikard, 2017. "Nuclear Waste Management under Approaching Disaster: A Comparison of Decommissioning Strategies for the German Repository Asse II," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1213-1232, July.
  72. Thomas Neukirchen & Matthias Klumpp, 2018. "Logistics Education and Behavioral Training Decisions, Time Distortion, and the Prae Ante View," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-16, October.
  73. Rubinchik, Anna, 2015. "The chase of a multi-armed economist for the elusive social discount rate," Working Papers WP2015/8, University of Haifa, Department of Economics, revised 18 Nov 2015.
  74. Keivan Mallahi-Karai & Pedram Safari, 2018. "Future exchange rates and Siegel's paradox," Papers 1805.03347, arXiv.org.
  75. Bernard Lapeyre & Emile Quinet, 2017. "A Simple GDP-based Model for Public Investments at Risk," Post-Print hal-01666574, HAL.
  76. Ashwin K Seshadri, 2018. "Economics of carbon-dioxide abatement under an exogenous constraint on cumulative emissions," Papers 1808.08717, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
  77. Desheng Wu & Shuzhen Chen, 2017. "Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(8), pages 1522-1531, August.
  78. Tol, Richard S.J., 2013. "Targets for global climate policy: An overview," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 911-928.
  79. Rafał Buła & Monika Foltyn-Zarychta, 2022. "Declining Discount Rates for Energy Policy Investments in CEE EU Member Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, December.
  80. Daniele Pennesi, 2017. "Uncertain discount and hyperbolic preferences," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 83(3), pages 315-336, October.
  81. Szekeres, Szabolcs, 2017. "Checking Gollier and Weitzman's solution of the "Weitzman-Gollier puzzle"," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-11, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  82. M N Murty & Manoj Panda & William Joe, 2020. "Estimating Social Time Preference Rate for India:Lower Discount Rates for Climate Change Mitigation and other Long Run Investment Projects," IEG Working Papers 388, Institute of Economic Growth.
  83. Cees Withagen, 2022. "On Simple Rules for the Social Cost of Carbon," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(2), pages 461-481, June.
  84. Behr Adam & Mielcarz Paweł & Osiichuk Dmytro, 2018. "Terminal Value Calculation in DCF Valuation Models: An Empirical Verification," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 14(1), pages 27-38, March.
  85. Riccardo Rebonato & Riccardo Ronzani & Lionel Melin, 2023. "Robust management of climate risk damages," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(3), pages 1-43, September.
  86. Cropper, Maureen, 2012. "How Should Benefits and Costs Be Discounted in an Intergenerational Context?," RFF Working Paper Series dp-12-42, Resources for the Future.
  87. Newbery, David M., 2016. "Towards a green energy economy? The EU Energy Union’s transition to a low-carbon zero subsidy electricity system – Lessons from the UK’s Electricity Market Reform," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1321-1330.
  88. Winston W. Chang, 2017. "World Trade and the Environment: Issues and Policies," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 435-479, August.
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  90. Billette de Villemeur, Etienne & Leroux, Justin, 2019. "Tradable climate liabilities: A thought experiment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
  91. Lanlan Luo & Shou Chen & Ziran Zou, 2020. "Determining the Generalized Discount Rate for Risky Projects," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(1), pages 143-158, September.
  92. Shiba Suzuki & Hiroaki Yamagami, 2020. "Optimism on Pollution-Driven Disasters and Asset Prices," Working Papers 2020.06, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
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  94. Asbjørn Aaheim & Taoyuan Wei & Bård Romstad, 2017. "Conflicts of economic interests by limiting global warming to +3 °C," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(8), pages 1131-1148, December.
  95. Buchholz, Wolfgang & Schymura, Michael, 2012. "Expected utility theory and the tyranny of catastrophic risks," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 234-239.
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  97. Emhjellen, Magne & Osmundsen, Petter, 2012. "Rate of return requirement for climate versus petroleum projects," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2012/7, University of Stavanger.
  98. Mikhail Pakhnin, 2021. "Collective Choice with Heterogeneous Time Preferences," CESifo Working Paper Series 9141, CESifo.
  99. Moritz Drupp & Mark Freeman & Ben Groom & Frikk Nesje, 2015. "Discounting disentangled: an expert survey on the determinants of the long-term social discount rate," GRI Working Papers 196a, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  100. Cameron Hepburn & Greer Gosnell, 2014. "Evaluating impacts in the distant future: cost–benefit analysis, discounting and the alternatives," Chapters, in: Giles Atkinson & Simon Dietz & Eric Neumayer & Matthew Agarwala (ed.), Handbook of Sustainable Development, chapter 9, pages 140-159, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  101. Frédéric Cherbonnier & Christian Gollier, 2022. "Risk-adjusted Social Discount Rates," Post-Print hal-04012977, HAL.
  102. Francisco M. Gonzalez & Itziar Lazkano & Sjak A. Smulders, 2017. "Future-biased Intergenerational Altruism," Working Papers 1703, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2017.
  103. Mareike Schad & Jürgen John, 2012. "Towards a social discount rate for the economic evaluation of health technologies in Germany: an exploratory analysis," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 13(2), pages 127-144, April.
  104. Hübler, Michael, 2015. "How Tourism Can Save Nature," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-551, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
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  112. Christian P. Fries, 2020. "Non-Linear Discounting and Default Compensation: Valuation of Non-Replicable Value and Damage: When the Social Discount Rate may become Negative," Papers 2007.06465, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
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  114. Reichel, Lukas & Schmeiser, Hato & Schreiber, Florian, 2021. "Sometimes more, sometimes less: Prudence and the diversification of risky insurance coverage," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 292(2), pages 770-783.
  115. Ekeland, Ivar & Karp, Larry & Sumaila, Rashid, 2015. "Equilibrium resource management with altruistic overlapping generations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-16.
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  123. Koen Vermeylen, 2013. "Non-Marginal Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Tyranny of Discounting," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-203/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
  124. Traeger, Christian P., 2012. "What's the rate? Disentangling the Weitzman and the Gollier effect," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt88x3d1vw, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  125. Szekeres, Szabolcs, 2015. "Governments Should Not Use Declining Discount Rates in Project Analysis," MPRA Paper 63438, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  126. P. Polglase & A. Reeson & C. Hawkins & K. Paul & A. Siggins & J. Turner & D. Crawford & T. Jovanovic & T. Hobbs & K. Opie & J. Carwardine & A. Almeida, 2013. "Potential for forest carbon plantings to offset greenhouse emissions in Australia: economics and constraints to implementation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 161-175, November.
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