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Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A. & Pranovich, M., 2011. "Optimal Forecasts in the Presence of Structural Breaks (Updated 14 November 2011)," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1163, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Bauwens, Luc & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2012. "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3415-3429.
  3. Terence C. Mills, 2013. "Trends, cycles and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 3, pages 45-60, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  4. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2023. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: What is the role of parameter instability?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  5. Bates, Brandon J. & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2013. "Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 289-304.
  6. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324, Elsevier.
  7. Tobias Adrian & Richard K. Crump & Erik Vogt, 2019. "Nonlinearity and Flight‐to‐Safety in the Risk‐Return Trade‐Off for Stocks and Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1931-1973, August.
  8. Matteo Iacopini & Luca Rossini, 2019. "Bayesian nonparametric graphical models for time-varying parameters VAR," Papers 1906.02140, arXiv.org.
  9. Bianchi, Francesco, 2020. "The Great Depression and the Great Recession: A view from financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 240-261.
  10. Dimitris, Korobilis, 2013. "Forecasting with Factor Models: A Bayesian Model Averaging Perspective," MPRA Paper 52724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng & Wu, Chongfeng, 2021. "Forecasting stock returns: A time-dependent weighted least squares approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
  12. Ardia, David & Dufays, Arnaud & Ordás Criado, Carlos, 2023. "Linking Frequentist and Bayesian Change-Point Methods," MPRA Paper 119486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Richard Paap & Dick J.C. van Dijk, 2011. "An Alternative Bayesian Approach to Structural Breaks in Time Series Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-023/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  14. Choi, Kyongwook & Yu, Wei-Choun & Zivot, Eric, 2010. "Long memory versus structural breaks in modeling and forecasting realized volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 857-875, September.
  15. Raviv, Eran & Bouwman, Kees E. & van Dijk, Dick, 2015. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: Utilizing hourly prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 227-239.
  16. González-Rivera, Gloria & Sun, Yingying, 2017. "Density forecast evaluation in unstable environments," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 416-432.
  17. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.
  18. Arnaud Dufays & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2019. "Sparse Change-point HAR Models for Realized Variance," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 857-880, September.
  19. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2013. "Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-44, January.
  20. Nonejad, Nima, 2014. "Particle Gibbs with Ancestor Sampling Methods for Unobserved Component Time Series Models with Heavy Tails, Serial Dependence and Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 55664, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2007. "Learning, Structural Instability, and Present Value Calculations," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 253-288.
  22. Luc Bauwens & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2015. "The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 596-620, June.
  23. Miguel A.G. Belmonte & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2014. "Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time‐Varying Parameter Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 80-94, January.
  24. Hamilton, J.D., 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 163-201, Elsevier.
  25. Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2017. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Under Model Instability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 183-201, April.
  26. Qu, Zhongjun, 2008. "Testing for structural change in regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 170-184, September.
  27. Fisher, Mark & Jensen, Mark J., 2019. "Bayesian inference and prediction of a multiple-change-point panel model with nonparametric priors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 187-202.
  28. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
  29. Ulrich K. Müller & James H. Stock, 2011. "Forecasts in a Slightly Misspecified Finite Order VAR Model," Working Papers 2011-4, Princeton University. Economics Department..
  30. Andersen, Torben G. & Varneskov, Rasmus T., 2022. "Testing for parameter instability and structural change in persistent predictive regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 361-386.
  31. Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Li, Guangjie, 2016. "Financial development, structure and growth: New data, method and results," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 95-112.
  32. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2009. "Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 669-705.
  33. Robert Barro & Tao Jin, 2021. "Rare Events and Long-Run Risks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 1-25, January.
  34. Petros Dellaportas & David G. T. Denison & Chris Holmes, 2007. "Flexible Threshold Models for Modelling Interest Rate Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 419-437.
  35. Jiawen Xu & Pierre Perron, 2015. "Forecasting in the presence of in and out of sample breaks," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  36. Georges Dionne & Olfa Maalaoui Chun, 2013. "Default and liquidity regimes in the bond market during the 2002-2012 period," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1160-1195, November.
  37. Karlsson, Sune, 2013. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregression," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 791-897, Elsevier.
  38. Geweke, John & Jiang, Yu, 2011. "Inference and prediction in a multiple-structural-break model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 172-185, August.
  39. Maheu, John M. & Song, Yong, 2014. "A new structural break model, with an application to Canadian inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 144-160.
  40. Smith, Simon C. & Timmermann, Allan & Zhu, Yinchu, 2019. "Variable selection in panel models with breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 323-344.
  41. Nima Nonejad, 2013. "A Mixture Innovation Heterogeneous Autoregressive Model for Structural Breaks and Long Memory," CREATES Research Papers 2013-24, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  42. Lee, Yoonsuk & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2012. "Impacts of Permanent and Transitory Shocks on Optimal Length of Moving Average to Predict Wheat Basis," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 125001, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  43. Markku Lanne, 2006. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1157-1168, December.
  44. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
  45. Adam Canopius, 2006. "Practitioners' Corner," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(2), pages 346-351.
  46. White Halbert & Granger Clive W.J., 2011. "Consideration of Trends in Time Series," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-40, February.
  47. Haase, Marco & Zimmermann, Heinz & Huss, Matthias, 2023. "Wheat price volatility regimes over 140 years: An analysis of daily price ranges," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
  48. Smith, Simon C., 2017. "Equity premium estimates from economic fundamentals under structural breaks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 49-61.
  49. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith, 2006. "Macroeconometric Modelling With A Global Perspective," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(s1), pages 24-49, September.
  50. Edward N. Gamber & Jeffrey P. Liebner & Julie K. Smith, 2016. "Inflation persistence: revisited," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 25-44.
    • Edward N. Gamber & Jeffrey P. Liebner & Julie K. Smith, 2013. "Inflation Persistence: Revisited," Working Papers 2013-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  51. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
  52. Castle, Jennifer L. & Fawcett, Nicholas W.P. & Hendry, David F., 2010. "Forecasting with equilibrium-correction models during structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 25-36, September.
  53. Jiawen Xu & Pierre Perron, 2015. "Forecasting in the presence of in and out of sample breaks," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  54. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Prior Elicitation In Multiple Change-Point Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 751-772, August.
  55. Alessandro Casini & Pierre Perron, 2018. "Structural Breaks in Time Series," Papers 1805.03807, arXiv.org.
  56. Shawn C. McKay & Alok Chaturvedi & Douglas E. Adams, 2011. "A process for anticipating and shaping adversarial behavior," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(3), pages 255-280, April.
  57. John M. Maheu & Yong Song, 2018. "An efficient Bayesian approach to multiple structural change in multivariate time series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 251-270, March.
  58. Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2020. "Modeling Turning Points In Global Equity Market," DEM Working Papers Series 195, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
  59. John M. Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2008. "Learning, forecasting and structural breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 553-583.
  60. Maheu, John M. & Yang, Qiao, 2016. "An infinite hidden Markov model for short-term interest rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 202-220.
  61. Markwat, T.D. & Kole, H.J.W.G. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2009. "Time Variation in Asset Return Dependence: Strength or Structure?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2009-052-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  62. Fokin, Nikita & Polbin, Andrey, 2019. "A Bivariate Forecasting Model For Russian GDP Under Structural Changes In Monetary Policy and Long-Term Growth," MPRA Paper 95306, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2019.
  63. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2014. "Unpredictability in economic analysis, econometric modeling and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 186-195.
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