The Nature of Power Spikes: A Regime-Switch Approach

Citations

Cited by:

1. Serati, Massimiliano & Manera, Matteo & Plotegher, Michele, 2008. "Modeling Electricity Prices: From the State of the Art to a Draft of a New Proposal," International Energy Markets Working Papers 44426, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
   • Massimiliano Serati & Matteo Manera & Michele Plotegher, 2008. "Modelling electricity prices: from the state of the art to a draft of a new proposal," LIUC Papers in Economics 210, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
   • Matteo Manera & Massimiliano Serati & Michele Plotegher, 2008. "Modeling Electricity Prices: From the State of the Art to a Draft of a New Proposal," Working Papers 2008.9, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
2. Liebl, Dominik, 2010. "Modeling hourly Electricity Spot Market Prices as non stationary functional times series," MPRA Paper 25017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
3. Afanasyev, Dmitriy & Fedorova, Elena, 2015. "The long-term trends on Russian electricity market: comparison of empirical mode and wavelet decompositions," MPRA Paper 62391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
4. Clements, A.E. & Herrera, R. & Hurn, A.S., 2015. "Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 383-393.
5. Mari, Carlo & Tondini, Daniela, 2010. "Regime switches induced by supply–demand equilibrium: a model for power-price dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4819-4827.
6. Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2012. "Inference for Markov-regime switching models of electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/12/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
7. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A. & Popov, Viktor U., 2015. "Fine structure of the price–demand relationship in the electricity market: Multi-scale correlation analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 215-226.
   • Afanasyev, Dmitriy & Fedorova, Elena & Popov, Viktor, 2014. "Fine structure of the price-demand relationship in the electricity market: multi-scale correlation analysis," MPRA Paper 58827, University Library of Munich, Germany.
8. Stephen Machin & Olivier Marie & Sunčica Vujić, 2012. "Youth Crime and Education Expansion," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13(4), pages 366-384, November.
   • Machin Stephen & Vujić Sunčica & Marie Olivier, 2012. "Youth Crime and Education Expansion," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 13(4), pages 366-384, December.
   • Machin, S. & Marie, O. & Vujic, S., 2012. "Youth crime and education expansion," Research Memorandum 036, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
   • Machin, Stephen & Marie, Olivier & Vujic, Suncica, 2012. "Youth Crime and Education Expansion," IZA Discussion Papers 6582, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
   • Machin, S. & Marie, O. & Vujic, S., 2012. "Youth crime and education expansion," ROA Research Memorandum 009, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
9. Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2013. "Goodness-of-fit testing for the marginal distribution of regime-switching models with an application to electricity spot prices," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 97(3), pages 239-270, July.
10. Weron, Rafał & Zator, Michał, 2015. "A note on using the Hodrick–Prescott filter in electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-6.
    • Rafal Weron & Michal Zator, 2014. "A note on using the Hodrick-Prescott filter in electricity markets," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/04, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
11. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    • Rafal Weron, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/07, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
12. Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "Goodness-of-fit testing for regime-switching models," MPRA Paper 22871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2011. "Goodness-of-fit testing for the marginal distribution of regime-switching models," MPRA Paper 32532, University Library of Munich, Germany.
13. Mari, Carlo & Cananà, Lucianna, 2012. "Markov switching of the electricity supply curve and power prices dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1481-1488.
14. Andreas Gerster, 2016. "Negative price spikes at power markets: the role of energy policy," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 271-289, December.
15. Scarcioffolo, Alexandre Ribeiro & Perobelli, Fernanda Finotti Cordeiro & Chimeli, Ariaster Baumgratz, 2018. "Counterfactual comparisons of investment options for wind power and agricultural production in the United States: Lessons from Northern Ohio," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 299-309.
    • Alexandre Ribeiro Scarcioffolo & Fernanda Finotti Perobelli, Ariaster Baumgratz Chimeli, 2018. "Counterfactual comparisons of investment options for wind power and agricultural production in the United States: Lessons from Northern Ohio," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_04, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    • Ribeiro Scarcioffolo, Alexandre & Finotti Cordeiro Perobelli, Fernanda & Baumgratz Chimeli, Ariaster, 2018. "Counterfactual Comparisons of Investment Options for Wind Power and Agricultural Production in the United States: Lessons from Northern Ohio," TD NEREUS 1-2018, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
16. Arvesen, Ø. & Medbø, V. & Fleten, S.-E. & Tomasgard, A. & Westgaard, S., 2013. "Linepack storage valuation under price uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 155-164.
    • Arvesen, Øystein & Medbø, Vegard & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Tomasgard, Asgeir & Westgaard, Sjur, 2012. "Linepack storage valuation under price uncertainty," MPRA Paper 43270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
17. Herrera, Rodrigo & González, Nicolás, 2014. "The modeling and forecasting of extreme events in electricity spot markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 477-490.
18. Weron, Rafal, 2008. "Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1098-1115, May.
19. Díaz, Guzmán & Moreno, Blanca & Coto, José & Gómez-Aleixandre, Javier, 2015. "Valuation of wind power distributed generation by using Longstaff–Schwartz option pricing method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 223-233.
20. Bannör, Karl & Kiesel, Rüdiger & Nazarova, Anna & Scherer, Matthias, 2016. "Parametric model risk and power plant valuation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 423-434.
21. Rafał Weron, 2009. "Heavy-tails and regime-switching in electricity prices," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 69(3), pages 457-473, July.
    • Weron, Rafal, 2008. "Heavy-tails and regime-switching in electricity prices," MPRA Paper 10424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
22. Eichler, M. & Türk, D.D.T., 2012. "Fitting semiparametric Markov regime-switching models to electricity spot prices," Research Memorandum 035, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
23. Д.О. Афанасьев1 & * & Е.А. Федорова2 & **, 2019. "Краткосрочное Прогнозирование Цены Электроэнергии На Российском Рынке С Использованием Класса Моделей Scarx," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(1), pages 68-84, январь.
24. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    • Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafal Weron, 2019. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/19/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
25. Nowotarski, Jakub & Tomczyk, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2013. "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 13-27.
    • Nowotarski, Jakub & Tomczyk, Jakub & Weron, Rafal, 2012. "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices," MPRA Paper 42563, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Jakub Nowotarski & Jakub Tomczyk & Rafal Weron, 2012. "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/12/06, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
26. Anatoliy Swishchuk, 2013. "Modeling and Pricing of Swaps for Financial and Energy Markets with Stochastic Volatilities," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8660, January.
27. Carlo Lucheroni, 2012. "A hybrid SETARX model for spikes in tight electricity markets," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 22(1), pages 13-49.
28. Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2012. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(3), pages 385-407, July.
    • Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2011. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/11/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
29. Ismail Shah & Hasnain Iftikhar & Sajid Ali & Depeng Wang, 2019. "Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting Using Components Estimation Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-17, July.
30. Niu, Shilei & Insley, Margaret, 2016. "An options pricing approach to ramping rate restrictions at hydro power plants," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 25-52.
31. Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2009. "Regime-switching models for electricity spot prices: Introducing heteroskedastic base regime dynamics and shifted spike distributions," MPRA Paper 18784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
32. Eichler, M. & Türk, D., 2013. "Fitting semiparametric Markov regime-switching models to electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 614-624.
33. Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1059-1073, September.
    • Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models or electricity spot prices," MPRA Paper 20546, University Library of Munich, Germany.
34. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
35. Mosquera-López, Stephanía & Uribe, Jorge M. & Manotas-Duque, Diego F., 2018. "Effect of stopping hydroelectric power generation on the dynamics of electricity prices: An event study approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 456-467.
36. Xiong, Heng & Mamon, Rogemar, 2019. "A higher-order Markov chain-modulated model for electricity spot-price dynamics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 495-515.
37. Samet G nay, 2015. "Markov Regime Switching Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic Model and Volatility Modeling for Oil Returns," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 979-985.
38. Leif Andersen, 2010. "Markov models for commodity futures: theory and practice," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 831-854.
39. Jakub Nowotarski & Jakub Tomczyk & Rafal Weron, 2013. "Modeling and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of the EEX and Nord Pool spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
40. Erlwein, Christina & Benth, Fred Espen & Mamon, Rogemar, 2010. "HMM filtering and parameter estimation of an electricity spot price model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1034-1043, September.
41. Emanuele Fabbiani & Andrea Marziali & Giuseppe De Nicolao, 2018. "Fast calibration of two-factor models for energy option pricing," Papers 1809.03941, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
42. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A., 2019. "On the impact of outlier filtering on the electricity price forecasting accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 196-210.
43. Tafakori, Laleh & Pourkhanali, Armin & Fard, Farzad Alavi, 2018. "Forecasting spikes in electricity return innovations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 508-526.
44. Hendrik Kohrs & Hermann Mühlichen & Benjamin R. Auer & Frank Schuhmacher, 2019. "Pricing and risk of swing contracts in natural gas markets," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 77-167, April.
45. Weron, Rafal & Janczura, Joanna, 2010. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity wholesale market prices," MPRA Paper 26628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2011. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/11/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
46. Ballester, Cristina & Furió, Dolores, 2015. "Effects of renewables on the stylized facts of electricity prices," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1596-1609.
47. Timothy Christensen & Stan Hurn & Kenneth Lindsay, 2009. "It Never Rains but it Pours: Modeling the Persistence of Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-48.
    • T M Christensen & A S Hurn & K A Lindsay, 2008. "It never rains but it pours: Modelling the persistence of spikes in electricity prices," NCER Working Paper Series 25, National Centre for Econometric Research.
48. Trueck, Stefan & Weron, Rafal & Wolff, Rodney, 2007. "Outlier Treatment and Robust Approaches for Modeling Electricity Spot Prices," MPRA Paper 4711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
49. Lindström, Erik & Norén, Vicke & Madsen, Henrik, 2015. "Consumption management in the Nord Pool region: A stability analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 239-246.
50. Lindström, Erik & Regland, Fredrik, 2012. "Modeling extreme dependence between European electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 899-904.
51. Janczura, Joanna & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał & Wolff, Rodney C., 2013. "Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 96-110.
    • Janczura, Joanna & Trueck, Stefan & Weron, Rafal & Wolff, Rodney, 2012. "Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling," MPRA Paper 39277, University Library of Munich, Germany.
52. Niels Haldrup & Oskar Knapik & Tommaso Proietti, 2016. "A generalized exponential time series regression model for electricity prices," CREATES Research Papers 2016-08, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
53. Kalczynski, Pawel J., 2012. "A discrete model for optimal operation of fossil-fuel generators of electricity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(3), pages 679-686.
54. Ruoyang Li & Alva Svoboda & Shmuel Oren, 2015. "Efficiency impact of convergence bidding in the california electricity market," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 245-284, December.
55. Ismail Shah & Hasnain Iftikhar & Sajid Ali, 2020. "Modeling and Forecasting Medium-Term Electricity Consumption Using Component Estimation Technique," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-17, May.
56. Michel Culot & Valérie Goffin & Steve Lawford & Sébastien de Meten & Yves Smeers, 2013. "Practical stochastic modelling of electricity prices," Post-Print hal-01021603, HAL.
57. Lisi, Francesco & Nan, Fany, 2014. "Component estimation for electricity prices: Procedures and comparisons," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 143-159.
58. Dmitriy O. Afanasyev & Elena A. Fedorova & Evgeniy V. Gilenko, 2021. "The fundamental drivers of electricity price: a multi-scale adaptive regression analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1913-1938, April.
59. Manner, Hans & Alavi Fard, Farzad & Pourkhanali, Armin & Tafakori, Laleh, 2019. "Forecasting the joint distribution of Australian electricity prices using dynamic vine copulae," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 143-164.
60. Fanone, Enzo & Gamba, Andrea & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2013. "The case of negative day-ahead electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 22-34.
61. Erik Lindström & Fredric Regland, 2012. "Independent Spike Models: Estimation and Validation," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(2), pages 180-196, May.
62. Mosquera-López, Stephanía & Uribe, Jorge M. & Manotas-Duque, Diego Fernando, 2017. "Nonlinear empirical pricing in electricity markets using fundamental weather factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 594-605.
63. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A., 2016. "The long-term trends on the electricity markets: Comparison of empirical mode and wavelet decompositions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 432-442.
64. Apergis, Nicholas & Pan, Wei-Fong & Reade, James & Wang, Shixuan, 2023. "Modelling Australian electricity prices using indicator saturation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
65. Apergis, Nicholas & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Wang, Shixuan, 2019. "Decoding the Australian electricity market: New evidence from three-regime hidden semi-Markov model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 129-142.
66. Gerster, Andreas, 2016. "Negative price spikes at power markets: The role of energy policy," Ruhr Economic Papers 636, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
67. Joanna Janczura, 2012. "Pricing electricity derivatives within a Markov regime-switching model," Papers 1203.5442, arXiv.org.
68. Joanna Janczura, 2014. "Pricing electricity derivatives within a Markov regime-switching model: a risk premium approach," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 79(1), pages 1-30, February.