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Bayes Inference via Gibbs Sampling of Autoregressive Time Series Subject to Markov Mean and Variance Shifts

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Dufrénot, Gilles & Malik, Sheheryar, 2012. "The changing role of house price dynamics over the business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1960-1967.
  2. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model," Working Papers 2013:17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2014.
  3. Manuela Goretti, 2005. "The Brazilian currency turmoil of 2002: a nonlinear analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 289-306.
  4. Ľluboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2001. "The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1207-1239, August.
  5. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2002. "Is there an asymmetric effect of monetary policy over time? A Bayesian analysis using Austrian data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 277-297.
  6. Daniel Aromi & Marcos Dal Bianco, 2014. "Un analisis de los desequilibrios del tipo de cambio real argentino bajo cambios de regimen," Working Papers 1431, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  7. Marcelle Chauvet & Elcyon C. R. Lima & Brisne Vasquez, 2015. "Forecasting Brazilian Output in Real Time in the Presence of breaks: a Comparison Of Linear and Nonlinear Models," Discussion Papers 0118, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  8. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Wall, Howard J. & Wheeler, Christopher H., 2008. "The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 538-550, November.
  9. Paap, Richard & Segers, Rene & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "Do Leading Indicators Lead Peaks More Than Troughs?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 528-543.
  10. Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Herman K, 2003. "Bayes Estimates of Markov Trends in Possibly Cointegrated Series: An Application to U.S. Consumption and Income," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 547-563, October.
  11. Song, Zhe & Jiang, Yu & Zhang, Zijun, 2014. "Short-term wind speed forecasting with Markov-switching model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 103-112.
  12. Gospodinov, Nikolay, 2002. "Median unbiased forecasts for highly persistent autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 85-101, November.
  13. Battulga Gankhuu, 2021. "Options Pricing under Bayesian MS-VAR Process," Papers 2109.05998, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
  14. Marcelle Chauvet, 2001. "The Brazilian Economic Fluctuations," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 033, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  15. Raggi, Davide & Bordignon, Silvano, 2012. "Long memory and nonlinearities in realized volatility: A Markov switching approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3730-3742.
  16. Philippe J. Deschamps, 2008. "Comparing smooth transition and Markov switching autoregressive models of US unemployment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 435-462.
  17. Sylvia Kaufmann & Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter, 2006. "How do changes in monetary policy affect bank lending? An analysis of Austrian bank data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 275-305.
  18. Liu Xiaochun & Luger Richard, 2018. "Markov-switching quantile autoregression: a Gibbs sampling approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 1, April.
  19. Christos Merkatas & Simo Särkkä, 2023. "System identification using autoregressive Bayesian neural networks with nonparametric noise models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 319-330, May.
  20. George Monokroussos, 2011. "Dynamic Limited Dependent Variable Modeling and U.S. Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 519-534, March.
  21. Stöber, Jakob & Czado, Claudia, 2014. "Regime switches in the dependence structure of multidimensional financial data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 672-686.
  22. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, November.
  23. Lima, Elcyon Caiado Rocha, 2003. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and the Rate of Inflation in Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 57(4), October.
  24. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Roberto Casarin & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2023. "Fiscal Policy Regimes in Resource-Rich Economies," Working Papers No 13/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  25. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337, October.
  26. Luca Di Persio & Samuele Vettori, 2014. "Markov Switching Model Analysis of Implied Volatility for Market Indexes with Applications to S&P 500 and DAX," Journal of Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-17, December.
  27. Chib & Siddhartha; Dueker, 2004. "Non-Markovian Regime Switching with Endogenous States and Time-Varying State Strengths," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 600, Econometric Society.
  28. Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of optimal forecasts under asymmetric loss and nonlinearity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 884-918, October.
  29. Silvestro Di Sanzo, 2007. "Forecasting Time Series with Long Memory and Level Shifts, A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 2007_03, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  30. Basturk, N. & Paap, R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2010. "Financial Development and Convergence Clubs," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-52, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  31. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August.
  32. Smith Penelope & Summers Peter M, 2009. "Regime Switches in GDP Growth and Volatility: Some International Evidence and Implications for Modeling Business Cycles," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, September.
  33. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2016. "Interconnections Between Eurozone and us Booms and Busts Using a Bayesian Panel Markov‐Switching VAR Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1352-1370, November.
  34. Héctor Zárate & Norberto Rodríguez & Margarita Marín, 2013. "El tamano de las empresas y la transmisión de la política monetaria en Colombia: una aplicación con la encuesta mensual de expectativas económicas," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, June.
  35. Carlo A. Favero & Stefano W. Giglio, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure: Evidence from the Case of Italy in the EMS and the EMU Periods," Working Papers 312, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  36. Keisuke Hirano & Guido W. Imbens & Geert Ridder & Donald B. Rubin, 2001. "Combining Panel Data Sets with Attrition and Refreshment Samples," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1645-1659, November.
  37. BAUWENS, Luc & BOS, Charles S. & VAN DIJK, Herman K., 1999. "Adaptive polar sampling with an application to a Bayes measure of value-at-risk," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1999057, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  38. Benoit Bellone, 2005. "Classical Estimation of Multivariate Markov-Switching Models using MSVARlib," Econometrics 0508017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  39. Zacharias Psaradakis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2003. "On The Determination Of The Number Of Regimes In Markov‐Switching Autoregressive Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 237-252, March.
  40. Engel, Charles & Kim, Chang-Jin, 1999. "The Long-Run U.S./U.K. Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 335-356, August.
  41. Maheu, John M. & Yang, Qiao, 2016. "An infinite hidden Markov model for short-term interest rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 202-220.
  42. Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2015. "The consequences of an unknown debt target," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 76-96.
  43. Liu, Wen-Hsien & Chyi, Yih-Luan, 2006. "A Markov regime-switching model for the semiconductor industry cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-578, July.
  44. Maximo Camacho & María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2021. "An Automatic Algorithm to Date the Reference Cycle of the Spanish Economy," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(18), pages 1-17, September.
  45. George Monokroussos, 2013. "A Classical MCMC Approach to the Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models of Time Series," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(1), pages 71-105, June.
  46. Gärtner, Dennis L. & Halbheer, Daniel, 2009. "Are there waves in merger activity after all?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 708-718, November.
  47. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana & Neil Shephard, 2004. "Likelihood-Based Estimation of Latent Generalized ARCH Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1481-1517, 09.
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