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Stocks as Lotteries: The Implications of Probability Weighting for Security Prices

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Cited by:

  1. Xu, Zhongxiang & Chevapatrakul, Thanaset & Li, Xiafei, 2019. "Return asymmetry and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 93-110.
  2. Wang, Huijun & Yan, Jinghua & Yu, Jianfeng, 2017. "Reference-dependent preferences and the risk–return trade-off," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 395-414.
  3. Matteo Del Vigna, 2014. "A note on the existence of CAPM equilibria with homogeneous cumulative prospect theory preferences," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(2), pages 341-348, October.
  4. Matyska, Branka, 2021. "Salience, systemic risk and spectral risk measures as capital requirements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  5. Tariq Aziz & Valeed Ahmad Ansari, 2017. "Idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns: Indian evidence," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1420998-142, January.
  6. Fu, Ruonan & Melenberg, Bertrand & Schweizer, Nikolaus, 2023. "Comment on “A theoretical foundation of ambiguity measurement” [J. Econ. Theory 187 (2020) 105001]," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
  7. Barlevy, Gadi, 2014. "A leverage-based model of speculative bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 459-505.
  8. repec:awi:wpaper:0463 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Haim Levy & Enrico G. De Giorgi & Thorsten Hens, 2012. "Two Paradigms and Nobel Prizes in Economics: a Contradiction or Coexistence?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(2), pages 163-182, March.
  10. Shuonan Yuan & Marc Oliver Rieger & Nilüfer Caliskan, 2020. "Maxing out: the puzzling influence of past maximum returns on future asset prices in a cross-country analysis," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 70(4), pages 567-589, November.
  11. Sun, Kaisi & Wang, Hui & Zhu, Yifeng, 2023. "Salience theory in price and trading volume: Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 38-61.
  12. Rawley Z. Heimer & Kristian Ove R. Myrseth & Raphael S. Schoenle, 2019. "YOLO: Mortality Beliefs and Household Finance Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(6), pages 2957-2996, December.
  13. B. Douglas Bernheim & Charles Sprenger, 2020. "On the Empirical Validity of Cumulative Prospect Theory: Experimental Evidence of Rank‐Independent Probability Weighting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1363-1409, July.
  14. Kwon, Kyung Yoon & Min, Byoung-Kyu & Sun, Chenfei, 2022. "Enhancing the profitability of lottery strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 166-184.
  15. Yang, Baochen & Ye, Tao & Ma, Yao, 2022. "Financing anomaly, mispricing and cross-sectional return predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 579-598.
  16. Wang, Cheng & Han, Jing, 2023. "Prospect theory and mutual fund flows: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  17. Paul Schneider & Christian Wagner & Josef Zechner, 2020. "Low‐Risk Anomalies?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(5), pages 2673-2718, October.
  18. Polkovnichenko, Valery & Zhao, Feng, 2013. "Probability weighting functions implied in options prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 580-609.
  19. Aydoğan Alti & Paul C. Tetlock, 2014. "Biased Beliefs, Asset Prices, and Investment: A Structural Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 325-361, February.
  20. Luiz Félix & Roman Kräussl & Philip Stork, 2019. "Single Stock Call Options as Lottery Tickets: Overpricing and Investor Sentiment," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-407, October.
  21. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
  22. Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2018. "Gold futures returns and realized moments: A forecasting experiment using a quantile-boosting approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 196-212.
  23. Iseringhausen, Martin, 2020. "The time-varying asymmetry of exchange rate returns: A stochastic volatility – stochastic skewness model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 275-292.
  24. Felix, Luiz & Kräussl, Roman & Stork, Philip, 2017. "Single stock call options as lottery tickets," CFS Working Paper Series 566, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  25. Adabi Firouzjaee , Bagher & Mehrara , Mohsen & Mohammadi , Shapour, 2014. "Optimal Portfolio Selection for Tehran Stock Exchange Using Conditional, Partitioned and Worst-case Value at Risk Measures," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 9(1), pages 1-30, October.
  26. Kelley Bergsma & Jitendra Tayal, 2019. "Short Interest and Lottery Stocks," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 48(1), pages 187-227, March.
  27. Jondeau, Eric & Zhang, Qunzi & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2019. "Average skewness matters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 29-47.
  28. Byun, Suk-Joon & Goh, Jihoon & Kim, Da-Hea, 2020. "The role of psychological barriers in lottery-related anomalies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
  29. Jezek, M., 2009. "Passive Investors, Active Traders and Strategic Delegation of Price Discovery," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0951, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  30. Griffin, John, 2017. "Risk premia and ambiguity in an experimental market featuring a long-lived asset," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 21-27.
  31. Allen, Franklin & Vayanos, Dimitri & Vives, Xavier, 2014. "Introduction to financial economics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 1-14.
  32. Chen, Si, 2012. "Optimistic versus Pessimistic--Optimal Judgemental Bias with Reference Point," MPRA Paper 50693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Yong-Ho Cheon & Kuan-Hui Lee, 2018. "Maxing Out Globally: Individualism, Investor Attention, and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(12), pages 5807-5831, December.
  34. Borochin, Paul & Chang, Hao & Wu, Yangru, 2020. "The information content of the term structure of risk-neutral skewness," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 247-274.
  35. Gürtler, Marc & Stolpe, Julia, 2011. "Piecewise continuous cumulative prospect theory and behavioral financial engineering," Working Papers IF37V1, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
  36. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2011. "Maxing out: Stocks as lotteries and the cross-section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 427-446, February.
  37. Borochin, Paul & Wu, Zekun & Zhao, Yanhui, 2021. "The effect of option-implied skewness on delta- and vega-hedged option returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  38. Luiz Félix & Roman Kräussl & Philip Stork, 2020. "Implied volatility sentiment: a tale of two tails," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 823-849, May.
  39. Tilman H. Drerup & Matthias Wibral & Christian Zimpelmann, 2023. "Skewness expectations and portfolio choice," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(1), pages 107-144, March.
  40. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2011. "A Theory of Asset Prices Based on Heterogeneous Information," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1827, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  41. S. Capacci & E. Randon & A. E. Scorcu, 2014. "Luck vs Skill in Gambling over the Recession. Evidence from Italy," Working Papers wp918, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  42. Trond M. Døskeland & Hans K. Hvide, 2011. "Do Individual Investors Have Asymmetric Information Based on Work Experience?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 1011-1041, June.
  43. Zi-Mei Wang & Donald Lien, 2022. "Is maximum daily return a lottery? Evidence from monthly revenue announcements," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 545-600, August.
  44. Johansen, Kathrin & Singer, Nico, 2012. "Chasing rainbows: On the relationship between lottery tickets and common stocks," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 129, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
  45. Ana‐Maria Fuertes & Zhenya Liu & Weiqing Tang, 2022. "Risk‐neutral skewness and commodity futures pricing," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 751-785, April.
  46. Levy, Moshe, 2022. "An inter-temporal CAPM based on First order Stochastic Dominance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(2), pages 734-739.
  47. David Blitz, 2014. "Agency†Based Asset Pricing and the Beta Anomaly," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(4), pages 770-801, September.
  48. Trung H. Le & Apostolos Kourtis & Raphael Markellos, 2023. "Modeling skewness in portfolio choice," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 734-770, June.
  49. John Griffin, 2015. "Risk Premia and Knightian Uncertainty in an Experimental Market Featuring a Long-Lived Asset," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2015-01er:dp2015-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
  50. Turan G. Bali & Armen Hovakimian, 2009. "Volatility Spreads and Expected Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1797-1812, November.
  51. Matthias Pelster & Andrea Schertler, 2019. "Pricing and issuance dependencies in structured financial product portfolios," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 342-365, March.
  52. Nicholas C. Barberis, 2009. "A Model of Casino Gambling," NBER Working Papers 14947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  53. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2012. "Salience Theory of Choice Under Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1243-1285.
  54. Jörg Oechssler & Andreas Roider & Patrick W. Schmitz, 2015. "Cooling Off in Negotiations: Does it Work?," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 171(4), pages 565-588, December.
  55. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2013. "Salience and Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 623-628, May.
  56. Easley, David & Yang, Liyan, 2015. "Loss aversion, survival and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 494-516.
  57. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Gonzalez-Fernandez, Marcos & Miffre, Joelle, 2020. "Fear of hazards in commodity futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
  58. Ali, Sajid & Raza, Naveed & Vinh Vo, Xuan & Le, Van, 2022. "Modelling the joint dynamics of financial assets using MGARCH family models: Insights into hedging and diversification strategies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  59. Chen, Chen & Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Liao, Tzu-Hsiang, 2016. "Risk-neutral skewness and market returns: The role of institutional investor sentiment in the futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 203-225.
  60. Alasdair Brown & Fuyu Yang, 2017. "Salience and the Disposition Effect: Evidence from the Introduction of “Cash‐Outs” in Betting Markets," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(4), pages 1052-1073, April.
  61. Kingstone Nyakurukwa & Yudhvir Seetharam, 2023. "Beyond the hype: examining the relationship between Wikipedia attention and realised skewness for crypto assets," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(3), pages 1-12, September.
  62. Shleifer, Andrei, 2012. "Psychologists at the Gate: Review of Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow," Scholarly Articles 10735580, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  63. Phelim Boyle & Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal & Tan Wang, 2012. "Keynes Meets Markowitz: The Trade-Off Between Familiarity and Diversification," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 253-272, February.
  64. Guo, Jing & He, Xue Dong, 2017. "Equilibrium asset pricing with Epstein-Zin and loss-averse investors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 86-108.
  65. Sévi, Benoît, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the downside risk-return trade-off at daily frequency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 189-197.
  66. Andreas Oehler & Julian Schneider, 2022. "Gambling with lottery stocks?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(6), pages 477-503, October.
  67. Jian Yang & Yinggang Zhou & Zijun Wang, 2010. "Conditional Coskewness in Stock and Bond Markets: Time-Series Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 2031-2049, November.
  68. Kamada, Koichiro & Kurosaki, Tetsuo & Miura, Ko & Yamada, Tetsuya, 2022. "Central bank policy announcements and changes in trading behavior: Evidence from bond futures high frequency price data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
  69. Helga Fehr-Duda & Thomas Epper, 2012. "Probability and Risk: Foundations and Economic Implications of Probability-Dependent Risk Preferences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 567-593, July.
  70. Blau, Benjamin M. & Hsu, Jason & Whitby, Ryan J., 2019. "Skewness preferences and gambling cultures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  71. Vilkovz, Grigory & Xiaox, Yan, 2013. "Option-implied information and predictability of extreme returns," SAFE Working Paper Series 5, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
  72. Ebert, Sebastian & Hilpert, Christian, 2019. "Skewness preference and the popularity of technical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  73. Bailey, Warren & Kumar, Alok & Ng, David, 2010. "Behavioral Biases of Mutual Fund Investors," Working Papers 10-23, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  74. James S. Doran & Danling Jiang & David R. Peterson, 2011. "Gambling Preference and the New Year Effect of Assets with Lottery Features," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(3), pages 685-731.
  75. Alshammari, Saad & Goto, Shingo, 2022. "Are lottery-like stocks overvalued in markets that have no lotteries?–Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
  76. Vidal-García, Javier & Vidal, Marta, 2014. "Seasonality and idiosyncratic risk in mutual fund performance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 613-624.
  77. Birru, Justin & Wang, Baolian, 2016. "Nominal price illusion," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 578-598.
  78. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2013. "Salience and Consumer Choice," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(5), pages 803-843.
  79. Fernando Chague & Rodrigo De Losso, Bruno Giovannetti, 2017. "The Price Tag Illusion," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2017_31, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  80. Benoît Carmichael & Gilles Boevi Koumou & Kevin Moran, 2021. "The RQE-CAPM : New insights about the pricing of idiosyncratic risk," CIRANO Working Papers 2021s-28, CIRANO.
  81. Zhen Peng & Changsheng Hu, 2020. "Leveraged Trading, Irrational Sentiment and Sustainability in the Stock Market: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-18, February.
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  83. Yao, Shouyu & Wang, Chunfeng & Cui, Xin & Fang, Zhenming, 2019. "Idiosyncratic skewness, gambling preference, and cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 464-483.
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  86. Liu, Xin, 2021. "Diversification in lottery-like features and portfolio pricing discount: Evidence from closed-end funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-11.
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  92. Jiang, Xue & Han, Liyan & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Can skewness predict currency excess returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 628-641.
  93. Ging-Ginq Pan & Yung-Ming Shiu & Tu-Cheng Wu, 2019. "Is trading in the shortest-term index options profitable?," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 169-201, April.
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  99. Dierkes, Maik & Krupski, Jan & Schroen, Sebastian, 2022. "Option-implied lottery demand and IPO returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
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  133. Malcolm Baker & Mathias F. Hoeyer & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2016. "The Risk Anomaly Tradeoff of Leverage," NBER Working Papers 22116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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