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Was the Deflation during the Great Depression Anticipated? Evidence from the Commodity Futures Market

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Cited by:

  1. Martin Ellison & Sang Seok Lee & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2024. "The Ends of 27 Big Depressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(1), pages 134-168, January.
  2. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2013. "The Missing Transmission Mechanism in the Monetary Explanation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 66-72, May.
  3. Jason Lennard & Finn Meinecke & Solomos Solomou, 2023. "Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(3), pages 844-870, August.
  4. Bordo, Michael D & Choudhri, Ehsan U & Schwartz, Anna J, 1995. "Could Stable Money Have Averted the Great Contraction?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(3), pages 484-505, July.
  5. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2012. "Was the New Deal Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 524-555, February.
  6. Barry Eichengreen & Rui Esteves, 2022. "Up and away? Inflation and debt consolidation in historical perspective," Oxford Open Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1, pages 1-20.
  7. Bill Dorval & Gregor W. Smith, 2015. "Interwar Inflation, Unexpected Inflation, and Output Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1599-1615, December.
  8. Klug, Adam & Landon-Lane, John S. & White, Eugene N., 2005. "How could everyone have been so wrong? Forecasting the Great Depression with the railroads," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-55, January.
  9. Matthew T. Holt & Andrew M. McKenzie, 2003. "Quasi-rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 407-426.
  10. Gregor W. Smith, 2006. "The spectre of deflation: a review of empirical evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 1041-1072, November.
  11. Bernanke, Ben S, 1995. "The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 1-28, February.
  12. Jalil, Andrew J. & Rua, Gisela, 2016. "Inflation expectations and recovery in spring 1933," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 26-50.
  13. Randall E. Parker & Philip Rothman, 2004. "An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply Shocks in the Pre--World War I and Interwar Periods," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(1), pages 88-100, January.
  14. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1999. "Monetary policy regimes and economic performance: The historical record," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 149-234, Elsevier.
  15. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2008. "Great Expectations and the End of the Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1476-1516, September.
  16. Andrew Jalil & Gisela Rua, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933: Evidence from the Narrative Record," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Wm. Stewart Mounts & Clifford B. Sowell & Atul K. Saxena, 2000. "An Examination of Country Member Bank Cash Balances of the 1930s: A Test of Alternative Explanations," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 66(4), pages 923-941, April.
  18. Weber Ernst Juerg, 2010. "The Role of the Real Interest Rate in U.S. Macroeconomic History," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, April.
  19. Christopher J. Erceg & Michael D. Bordo & Charles L. Evans, 2000. "Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1447-1463, December.
  20. Daniel, Volker & Steege, Lucas ter, 2020. "Inflation expectations and the recovery from the Great Depression in Germany," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  21. Kikuo Iwata & Yasushi Okada & Seiji Adachi & Yasuyuki Iida, 2008. "Lessons from the Inoue Zaisei and the Takahashi Zaisei," Gakushuin Economic Papers, Gakushuin University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 157-182.
  22. Ritschl, Albrecht & Wolf, Nikolaus, 2003. "Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from the Inter-war Period," CEPR Discussion Papers 4112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Michael D. Bordo & Andrew T. Levin & Mickey D. Levy, 2020. "Incorporating Scenario Analysis into the Federal Reserve’s Policy Strategy and Communications," NBER Working Papers 27369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. John V. Duca, 2013. "The Money Market Meltdown of the Great Depression," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 493-504, March.
  25. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1994. "Preventing Financial Crises: An International Perspective," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 62(0), pages 1-40, Suppl..
  26. Masahiko Shibamoto, 2023. "Inflation, Business Cycle, and Monetary Policy: The Role of Inflationary Pressure," Discussion Paper Series DP2023-04, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  27. Donald W. K. Andrews & C. John McDermott, 1995. "Nonlinear Econometric Models with Deterministically Trending Variables," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 62(3), pages 343-360.
  28. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
  29. Borio, Claudio & Filardo, Andrew J., 2004. "Looking back at the international deflation record," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 287-311, December.
  30. Ritschl, Albrecht & Ahmadi, Pooyan Amir, 2009. "Depression Econometrics: A FAVAR Model of Monetary Policy During the Great Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 7546, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  31. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.
  32. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  33. Joshua K. Hausman & Johannes F. Wieland, 2014. "Abenomics: Preliminary Analysis and Outlook," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-76.
  34. Robert L. Hetzel, 2002. "German monetary history in the first half of the twentieth century," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 1-35.
  35. Carola Binder & Rupal Kamdar, 2022. "Expected and Realized Inflation in Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 131-156, Summer.
  36. Christian Bauer & Sebastian Weber, 2016. "The Efficiency of Monetary Policy when Guiding Inflation Expectations," Research Papers in Economics 2016-14, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
  37. James Harrigan & Kenneth Kuttner, 2004. "Lost Decade in Translation: Did the US Learn from Japan's Post-Bubble Mistakes?," NBER Working Papers 10938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2014. "Uncertainty Shocks and Equity Return Jumps and Volatility During the Great Depression," Working Papers 2014-02, American University, Department of Economics.
  39. Christina D. Romer, 2013. "It Takes a Regime Shift: Recent Developments in Japanese Monetary Policy through the Lens of the Great Depression," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013, Volume 28, pages 383-400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Rockoff, Hugh & White, Eugene N., 2012. "Monetary Regimes and Policy on a Global Scale: The Oeuvre of Michael D. Bordo," MPRA Paper 49672, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2013.
  41. Baumeister, Christiane, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 16520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  42. Alasdair Scott, 2000. "A multivariate unobserved components model of cyclical activity," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  43. Michael Bordo, 2000. "Sound Money and Sound Financial Policy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 129-155, December.
  44. Duca, John V., 2017. "The Great Depression versus the Great Recession in the U.S.: How fiscal, monetary, and financial polices compare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 50-64.
  45. Taylor, Jason E. & Neumann, Todd C., 2016. "Recovery Spring, Faltering Fall: March to November 1933," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 54-67.
  46. Loungani, Prakash & Stekler, Herman & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2013. "Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 605-621.
  47. Gabriel Mathy & Herman Stekler, 2018. "Was the deflation of the depression anticipated? An inference using real-time data," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 117-125, April.
  48. Joseph M. Santos, 2014. "Back to the futures: An assessment of market performance on the early Winnipeg Grain Exchange," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(4), pages 1426-1448, November.
  49. Christina D. Romer, 2014. "It Takes a Regime Shift: Recent Developments in Japanese Monetary Policy through the Lens of the Great Depression," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 383-400.
  50. Randall E. Parker & James S. Fackler, "undated". "Was Debt Deflation Operative during the Great Depression?: A Note," Working Papers 0102, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
  51. Bordo, Michael & Erceg, Christopher & Levin, Andrew & Michaels, Ryan, 2017. "Policy credibility and alternative approaches to disinflation," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 422-440.
  52. Saleuddin, Rasheed & Coffman, D’Maris, 2018. "Can inflation expectations be measured using commodity futures prices?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 37-48.
  53. Thies Clifford F., 2021. "Expectations of a Post-Wwii Depression," Studia Historiae Oeconomicae, Sciendo, vol. 39(1), pages 145-162, December.
  54. Breitenlechner, Max & Mathy, Gabriel P. & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Decomposing the U.S. Great Depression: How important were loan supply shocks?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  55. Mathy, Gabriel & Stekler, Herman, 2017. "Expectations and forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-time evidence from the business press," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-15.
  56. Gimeno, Ricardo & Ibáñez, Alfredo, 2018. "The eurozone (expected) inflation: An option's eyes view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 70-92.
  57. Douglas A. Irwin, 2014. "Who Anticipated the Great Depression? Gustav Cassel versus Keynes and Hayek on the Interwar Gold Standard," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(1), pages 199-227, February.
  58. Ritschl, Albrecht & Woitek, Ulrich, 2000. "Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2547, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  59. Martin Ellison & Sang Seok Lee & Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke, 2020. "The Ends of 30 Big Depressions," Economics Series Working Papers 896, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  60. Douglas A. Irwin, 2011. "Anticipating the Great Depression? Gustav Cassel's Analysis of the Interwar Gold Standard," NBER Working Papers 17597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  61. Albrecht Ritschl & Ulrich Woitek, "undated". "Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression? A Bayesian VAR Analysis for the U.S. Economy," IEW - Working Papers 050, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  62. Charles W. Calomiris, 1993. "Financial Factors in the Great Depression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 61-85, Spring.
  63. Douglas A. Irwin, 2010. "Did France Cause the Great Depression?," NBER Working Papers 16350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  64. Jakob B. Madsen, 2003. "The Equity Risk Premium and the Required Share Returns in a Tobin’s q Model," EPRU Working Paper Series 03-10, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  65. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Re-Examining the Contributions of Money and Banking Shocks to the US Great Depression," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 183-260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  66. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2013. "Deflation Risk," NBER Working Papers 19238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  67. Eggertsson, Gauti B. & Pugsley, Benjamin, 2006. "The mistake of 1931: A general equilibrium analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  68. Siodla, James, 2020. "Debt and taxes: Fiscal strain and US city budgets during the Great Depression," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  69. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Understanding the Great Depression: Lessons for Current Policy," NBER Working Papers 6015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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