Sharing High Growth Across Generations: Pensions and Demographic Transition in China
AbstractIntergenerational inequality and old-age poverty are salient issues in contemporary China. China’s aging population threatens the fiscal sustainability of its pension system, a key vehicle for intergenerational redistribution. We analyze the positive and normative effects of alternative pension reforms, using a dynamic general equi- librium model that incorporates population dynamics and productivity growth. Although a reform is necessary, delaying its implementation implies large welfare gains for the (poorer) current generations, imposing only small costs on (richer) future generations. In contrast, a fully funded reform harms current generations, with small gains to future generations. High wage growth is key for these results.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by UBS International Center of Economics in Society - Department of Economics - University of Zurich in its series UBSCENTER - Working Papers with number 001.
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
China; Credit market imperfections; Demographic transition; Economic growth; Fully funded system; Inequality; Intergenerational redistribution; Labor supply; Migration; Pensions; Poverty; Rural-urban reallocation; Total fertility rate; Wage growth;
Other versions of this item:
- Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Yikai Wang & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2012. "Sharing high growth across generations:pensions and demographic transition in China," CEPRA working paper 1203, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.
- Song, Zheng Michael & Storesletten, Kjetil & Wang, Yikai & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2012. "Sharing High Growth Across Generations: Pensions and Demographic Transition in China," CEPR Discussion Papers 9156, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
- O43 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
- R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-02-16 (All new papers)
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