On the distribution of stock-market returns - Implications of Evolutionary Finance
AbstractRisk management and asset pricing benefit from simple functional descriptions of the distribution of real asset returns. Recently, several authors have proposed that asset returns in real stock markets are distributed according to a hyperbolic distribution. While asset returns are generated by trades over time, the natural question is: What does economic theory imply concerning return distributions? We propose a simple model of price formation and, thus, return distribution which is based on economic reasoning. The markets behavior is represented by a pair consisting of a time-constant strategy and a dynamical trading strategy generating a flow between funds. Simulations of the price dynamics generate returns with fat-tail behavior in line with that of a hyperbolic distribution.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich in its series IEW - Working Papers with number 232.
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Asset returns; hyperbolic distribution; evolutionary finance;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-02-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-EVO-2005-02-20 (Evolutionary Economics)
- NEP-FIN-2005-02-20 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2005-02-20 (Financial Markets)
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