Efficient elicitation of utility and probability weighting functions
AbstractElicitation methods in decision making under risk allow a researcher to infer the subjective utilities of outcomes as well as the subjective weights of probabilities from the observed preferences of an individual. An optimally efficient elicitation method is proposed, which takes into account the inevitable distortion of preferences by random errors and minimizes the effect of such errors on the inferred utility and probability weighting functions. Under mild assumptions, the optimally efficient method for eliciting utilities (weights) of many outcomes (probabilities) is the following three-stage procedure. First, a probability is elicited whose subjective weight is one half. Second, an individual’s utility function is elicited through the midpoint chaining certainty equivalent method employing the probability elicited at the first stage as an input. Finally, an individual’s probability weighting function is elicited through the probability equivalent method.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich in its series IEW - Working Papers with number 211.
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decision theory; rank-dependent expected utility; cumulative prospect theory; von Neumann-Morgenstern utility; probability weighting; elicitation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
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