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Der Einfluß von Arbitrageuren auf die Preisführerschaft von Finanzmärkten

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  • Kempf, Alexander
  • Korn, Olaf
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    Abstract

    Die vorliegende Studie untersucht den Zusammenhang zwischen Arbitragetätigkeit und Preisführerschaft eines Marktes anhand Kursänderungen des DAX und des DAX-Futures. Dem Gleichgewichtsmodell von Garbade/Silber (1983) folgend wird der Einfluß (imperfekter) Arbitragetätigkeit auf die Lead-Lag-Struktur modelliert. Die empirischen Analysen zeigen einen signifikanten Einfluß der Fehlbewertung zwischen Kassa- und Futuresmarkt auf die Preisführerschaft, sofern die Fehlbewertung die Transaktionskosten übersteigt. Weiterhin wird gefunden, daß bei Über- und Unterbewertungen des Futures unterschiedlich starke Anpassungsreaktionen der Preise auftreten. Schließlich belegen die Resultate, daß der Einfluß der Arbitrageure auf die Preisführerschaft mit abnemender Restlaufzeit des Futures stärker wird. Insgesamt zeigen die Ergebnisse der Studie einen bedeutenden Einfluß der Arbitrageure auf die Lead-Lag-Struktur zwischen Kassa- und Futuresmarkt. Das Verhalten der Arbitrageure scheint jedoch deutlich komplexer zu sein als in Garbade/Silber (1983) unterstellt. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 95-02.

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    Date of creation: 1995
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:9502

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    1. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-97, May.
    2. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 441-468, December.
    3. Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. & Peter Locke & Wei Yu, 1995. "Index arbitrage and nonlinear dynamics between the S&P 500 futures and cash," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 95-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. Grunbichler Andreas & Longstaff Francis A. & Schwartz Eduardo S., 1994. "Electronic Screen Trading and the Transmission of Information: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 166-187, March.
    5. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    6. Bühler, Wolfgang & Kempf, Alexander, 1994. "The value of the early unwind option in futures contracts with an endogenous basis," ZEW Discussion Papers 94-06, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    7. Bühler, Wolfgang & Kempf, Alexander, 1993. "Der DAX-Future: Kursverhalten und Arbitragemöglichkeiten," ZEW Discussion Papers 93-02, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    8. A. Craig MacKinlay, Krishna Ramaswamy, 1988. "Index-Futures Arbitrage and the Behavior of Stock Index Futures Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(2), pages 137-158.
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