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International spillovers and feedback: modelling in a disequilibrium framework

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  • Winker, Peter
  • Beck, Martin

Abstract

German unifikation hit the West German economy in a prosperous and appeared as a huge demand shock at least for the first few quarters. This combination resulted in a major increase of imports from the main trading partners of West Germany, which may have helped to cushion recessionary trends within these countries. In this paper the modelling of international trade in a disequilibrium framework and the consequences of German unification on trade flows are in the centre of interest. For this purpose, a macroeconomic disequilibrium model for the German economy is extended by submodels for bilateral trade flows vis a vis major trading partners. These submodels treat the trade flows as well as foreign and domestic production and capacity utilization as edogenous in a vector error correction framework. Consequently, the model allows for spillovers, like those resulting from the demand shock of German unification, to effect not only German trade flows, but also real variables in other countries leading to a feedback on Germany. The paper provides a short overview over the basic model. The modelling approach and estimation results for the trade submodels are presented in some detail and simmulation results for the feedback effects are also included. -- Zum Zeitpunkt der deutschen Wiedervereinigung befand sich die westdeutsche Volkswirtschaft bereits seit einiger Zeit in eine expansiven Phase. Die Wiedervereinigung selbst stellte zumindest während der ersten Quartale einen beachtlichen positiven Nachfrageschock dar. Aus dieser Kombination ergab sich ein deutliches Ansteigen der Importe von den wichtigsten Handelspartnern Deutschlands, wodurch in diesen Ländern zum Teil rezessive Entwicklungen abgemildertz werden konnten. In diesem Papier wird der internationale Handel in einem Ungleichgewichtsmodell untersucht, um die Auswirkungen der Wiederverinigung auf die Handelsströme quantifizieren zu können. Zu diesem Zweck wird ein makroökonomisches Ungleichgewichtsmodell um die explizite Modellierung bilateraler Handelsströme mit den fünf wichtigstenHandelspartnern Deutschlands ergänzt. In entsprechenden Teilmodellen werden neben den Handelsströmen auch die ausländische Produktion und der Kapazitätsauslastungsgrad als endogene Größen abgebildet. Die Schätzung erfolgt im Rahmen vektorwertiger Fehlerkorrekturmodelle. Diese Modellierung erlaubt neben der Abbildung von Übertragungseffekten auf das Ausland durch zusätzlich induzierte Importe auch, die daraus resultierenden realen Effekte im Ausland und die wiederum hieraus folgenden Rückwirkungen auf deutsche Exporte zu schätzen. Das Papier stellt kurz das Grundmodell dar, bevor auf die Modellierung und Schätzergebnisse für die Modelle bilatteralen Handels eingegangen wird. Schließlich wird im Rahmen einer Simulation eine Quantifizierung der Übertragungs- und Rückwirkungseffekte unternommen.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 00-36.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5319

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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  3. Winker, Peter & Smolny, Werner & Radowski, Daniel, 1999. "Modeling German unification in a disequilibrium framework," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-61, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
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