The paper investigates the business cycle relationships between the EU-15, the EU-11, as well as the EU-core countries for the period 1971 to 1997. Emphasis is put on the question whether there is a synchronization in the national business cycles or not. Using One-way- and Twoway-Anova techniques the results show that country-specific shocks are important to the smaller countries such as Luxembourg, Ireland, Portugal, and Finland. But for most of the EMU-members common shocks are much more important than country-specific shocks. In addition there is no indication of significant differences in the national growth rates, i.e. the European countries do not move along diverging growth paths. Nevertheless, departures over the business cycles are possible because persistence in output growth differs across countries. -- In dem Beitrag wird der konjunkturelle Zusammenhang zwischen den EU-15, den EU-11 und den ?Kern?-EU-Staaten für den Zeitraum von 1971 bis 1997 dahingehend untersucht, ob zwischen den Staaten ein konjunktureller Gleichlauf besteht oder nicht. Eine One-Way- und eine Two-Way-Anova-Analyse zeigt, daß insbesondere für die kleineren Länder länderspezifische Schocks eine beträchtliche Bedeutung haben. Demgegenüber dominieren bei den Kernländern deutlich die ?common shocks?. Da keine länderspezifischen Unterschiede feststellbar waren, kann daraus der Schluß gezogen werden, daß sich die europäischen Staaten entlang eines einheitlichen Wachstumspfades entwickeln. Gleichwohl können kurz- bis mittelfristige Abweichungen eintreten, da die Persistenz im Output für die einzelnen Länder unterschiedlich ist.
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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number
99-16.
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Find related papers by JEL classification: E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles P45 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - International Linkages
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Stirböck, Claudia & Heinemann, Friedrich, 1999.
"Capital Mobility within EMU,"
ZEW Discussion Papers
99-19, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
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