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Business Cycles in EU Member States

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  • Buscher, Herbert S.
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    Abstract

    The paper investigates the business cycle relationships between the EU-15, the EU-11, as well as the EU-core countries for the period 1971 to 1997. Emphasis is put on the question whether there is a synchronization in the national business cycles or not. Using One-way- and Twoway-Anova techniques the results show that country-specific shocks are important to the smaller countries such as Luxembourg, Ireland, Portugal, and Finland. But for most of the EMU-members common shocks are much more important than country-specific shocks. In addition there is no indication of significant differences in the national growth rates, i.e. the European countries do not move along diverging growth paths. Nevertheless, departures over the business cycles are possible because persistence in output growth differs across countries. -- In dem Beitrag wird der konjunkturelle Zusammenhang zwischen den EU-15, den EU-11 und den ?Kern?-EU-Staaten für den Zeitraum von 1971 bis 1997 dahingehend untersucht, ob zwischen den Staaten ein konjunktureller Gleichlauf besteht oder nicht. Eine One-Way- und eine Two-Way-Anova-Analyse zeigt, daß insbesondere für die kleineren Länder länderspezifische Schocks eine beträchtliche Bedeutung haben. Demgegenüber dominieren bei den Kernländern deutlich die ?common shocks?. Da keine länderspezifischen Unterschiede feststellbar waren, kann daraus der Schluß gezogen werden, daß sich die europäischen Staaten entlang eines einheitlichen Wachstumspfades entwickeln. Gleichwohl können kurz- bis mittelfristige Abweichungen eintreten, da die Persistenz im Output für die einzelnen Länder unterschiedlich ist.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 99-16.

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    Date of creation: 1999
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5233

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    1. Luca Antonio Ricci, 1997. "A Model of An Optimum Currency Area," IMF Working Papers 97/76, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Eswar Prasad & Tamim Bayoumi, 1996. "Currency Unions, Economic Fluctuations, and Adjustment," IMF Working Papers 96/81, International Monetary Fund.
    3. De Grauwe, Paul & Vanhaverbeke, Wim, 1991. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area? Evidence from Regional Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 555, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Patrick A. Puhani, 2001. "Labour Mobility: An Adjustment Mechanism in Euroland? Empirical Evidence for Western Germany, France and Italy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(2), pages 127-140, 05.
    5. C Bean, 1992. "Economic and Monetary Union," CEP Discussion Papers dp0086, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," CEPR Discussion Papers 643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Barry Eichengreen., 1990. "One Money for Europe? Lessons from the US Currency Union," Economics Working Papers 90-132, University of California at Berkeley.
    8. Sergio Nardis & Alessandro Goglio & Marco Malgarini, 1996. "Regional specialization and shocks in Europe: Some evidence from regional data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 197-214, September.
    9. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Operationalizing the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 1484, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Stirböck, Claudia & Heinemann, Friedrich, 1999. "Capital Mobility within EMU," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-19, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    11. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 1998. "Asymmetric shocks and EMU: Is there a need for a stability fund?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 33(6), pages 274-288, November.
    12. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1995. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:
    1. Puhani, Patrick A., 1999. "Labour Mobility - An Adjustment Mechanism in Euroland?," IZA Discussion Papers 34, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Lauer, Charlotte, 1999. "The Effects of European Economic and Monetary Union on Wage Behaviour," IZA Discussion Papers 36, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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