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Multifaktormodelle zur Erklärung deutscher Aktienrenditen: eine empirische Analyse

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Author Info

  • Stehle, Richard
  • Schulz, Anja
  • Schröder, Michael
  • Eberts, Elke
  • Ziegler, Andreas

Abstract

Dieses Papier untersucht, inwieweit Multifaktormodelle nach Fama/French (1993) am deutschen Aktienmarkt die zeitliche Streuung von Renditen abbilden und Portfolio-Renditen im Querschnitt erklären können. Analog zu vergleichbar angelegten Studien am US-amerikanischen, kanadischen und britischen Aktienmarkt ergibt sich aus den linearen Zeitreihen- Regressionen, dass ein Dreifaktorenmodell, das neben der Überschussrendite des Aktienmarktes zwei weitere Risikofaktoren des Aktienmarktes enthält (die sich aus dem Marktwert sowie dem Quotienten aus Buch- und Marktwert ableiten), eine wesentlich höhere Erklärungskraft für die Überschussrendite von Aktienportfolios besitzt als das traditionelle Capital Asset Pricing Model. Dagegen weisen zwei Risikofaktoren des Anleihenmarktes (die sich aus der Zinsstruktur und dem Ausfallrisiko ableiten) in einem Fünffaktorenmodell keinen zusätzlichen Erklärungsgehalt auf. Gegenüber den USA und Kanada kann das Dreifaktorenmodell allerdings für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland die zeitliche Streuung von Aktienrenditen nur schlechter abbilden. Dagegen werden Portfolio-Renditen im Querschnitt am deutschen Aktienmarkt wesentlich besser erklärt als am US-amerikanischen Aktienmarkt. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 03-45.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:1354

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Keywords: Multifaktormodelle; CAPM; Aktienrenditen;

References

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  1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
  2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. " Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-55, March.
  3. Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. " Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March.
  4. Michael Berkowitz, 2001. "Common Risk Factors in Explaining Canadian Equity Returns," Working Papers berk-00-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  5. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Wallmeier, Martin & Tauscher, Kathrin, 2012. "A Note on the Impact of Portfolio Overlapping in Tests of the Fama and French Three-Factor Model," FSES Working Papers 433, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
  2. Ulrich Oberndorfer & Andreas Ziegler, 2009. "2002 German Federal Elections and Associated Energy Policy: How Were Energy Corporations Financially Affected?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 229(5), pages 570-583, October.

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