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Financial crises after financial liberalization: Exceptional circumstances or structural weakness?

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  • Weller, Christian E.

Abstract

Recent studies have conjectured that there may be a link between financial liberalization and financial instability in emerging economies. Most of these studies, however, do not investigate whether emerging economies are becoming structurally more vulnerable to currency and banking crises. In this paper, we argue that emerging economies are systematically becoming more susceptible to both currency and banking crises after FL. Using data for 27 emerging economies from 1973 to the present, univariate and multivariate analyses indicate that the likelihood of currency crises and banking crises increase after FL. In particular, liberalization allows more liquidity to enter an emerging economy, which finds its way into productive and speculative projects. What is common to both types of crises is a significant increase in speculative financing, thereby increasing the chance for borrower default. Thus, the outflow of international capital becomes more likely, and we find that the chance of either type of crisis grows faster in response to changes in short-term loans after FL than before. Similarly, the reactions to overvalued currencies are at least similar in terms of increasing probabilities of crises in the case of banking crises, or greater in the case of currency crises after FL as compared to before FL. Further, our results show that after FL the chance of a currency crisis declines over time, while the chance of a banking crisis increases. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn in its series ZEI Working Papers with number B 15-1999.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b151999

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Keywords: Emerging economies; Financial liberalization; financial instability; currency crises; banking crises;

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References

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
  3. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Is There a Safe Passage to EMU? Evidence on Capital Controls and a Proposal," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 303-332 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. International Monetary Fund, 1996. "The Economic Content of Indicators of Developing Country Creditworthiness," IMF Working Papers 96/9, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996. "Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1619, The World Bank.
  7. Bernd Schnatz, 2000. "Speculative attacks in emerging markets: The role of macroeconomic fundamentals," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 81-89, March.
  8. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "The Relative Importance of Political and Economic Variables in Creditworthiness Ratings," IMF Working Papers 98/46, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hübler, Olaf Hübler & Menkhoff, Lukas & Suwanaporn, Chodechai, 2007. "Financial Liberalisation in Emerging Markets: How Does Bank Lending Change?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover dp-364, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  2. Demir, Firat, 2007. "Private Investment and Cash Flow Relationship Revisited: Capital Market Imperfections and Financialization of Real Sectors in Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 3081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Timothy Bianco & Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong, 2012. "Financial stress index: a lens for supervising the financial system," Working Paper 1237, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  4. Ilene Grabel, 2003. "Predicting Financial Crisis in Developing Economies: Astronomy or Astrology?," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 243-258, Spring.
  5. Ilene GRABEL, 2004. "Trip Wires And Speed Bumps: Managing Financial Risks And Reducing The Potential For Financial Crises In Developing Economies," G-24 Discussion Papers 33, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  6. Christian E. Weller & Manita Rao, 2008. "Can Progressive Taxation Contribute to Economic Development?," Working Papers wp176, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  7. Haibin Zhu, 2003. "Credit constraints, financial liberalisation and twin crises," BIS Working Papers 124, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Barbara Stallings, 2004. "Financial Liberalization, Crisis, and Rescue: Lessons for China from Latin America and East Asia?," IDB Publications 48078, Inter-American Development Bank.
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Gerald Epstein & Ilene Grabel, 2007. "Financial Policy," Publications 3, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
  11. Mikhail V. Oet & Ryan Eiben & Timothy Bianco & Dieter Gramlich & Stephen J. Ong, 2011. "The financial stress index: identification of systemic risk conditions," Working Paper 1130, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  12. J L Ford & Bagus Santoso & N J Horsewood, 2007. "Asian Currency Crises: Do Fundamentals still Matter? A Markov-Switching Approach to Causes and Timing," Discussion Papers 07-07, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  13. Demir, Firat, 2006. "Volatility of short term capital flows, financial anarchy and private investment in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 3080, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2007.
  14. Jose Miguel Albala-Bertrand, 2006. "The Unlikeliness of an Economic Catastrophe: Localization & Globalization," Working Papers 576, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  15. Puspa Amri & Apanard P. Angkinand & Clas Wihlborg, 2011. "International comparisons of bank regulation, liberalization, and banking crises," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 322-339, November.
  16. DemIr, FIrat, 2009. "Capital Market Imperfections and Financialization of Real Sectors in Emerging Markets: Private Investment and Cash Flow Relationship Revisited," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 953-964, May.
  17. repec:cuf:journl:y:2014:v:15:i:2:abiad is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.

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