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Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: Evidence and implications for applied work

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  • Caner, Mehmet
  • Kilian, Lutz

Abstract

It is common in applied econometrics to test the null hypothesis of a level-stationary process against the alternative of a unit root process. We show that the use of conventional asymptotic critical values for the stationarity tests of Kwiatkowski et al. (1992) and Leybourne and McCabe (1994) may cause extreme size distortions, if the model under the null hypothesis is highly persistent. The existence of such size distortions has not been recognized in the previous literature. We illustrate the practical importance of these distortions for the problem of testing for long-run purchasing power parity under the recent float. Size distortions of tests of the unit root null hypothesis may be overcome by the use of finite-sample or bootstrap critical values. We show that such corrections are not possible for tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity. Our results suggest that the common practice of viewing tests of stationarity as complementary to tests of the unit root null will tend to result in contradictions or in spurious acceptances of the unit root hypothesis. We conclude that tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity cannot be recommended for applied work unless the sample size is very large. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn in its series ZEI Working Papers with number B 12-1999.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b121999

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Related research

Keywords: I(0) null hypothesis; finite-sample critical values; size; Monte Carlo simulation;

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Cited by:
  1. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Aggarwal, Raj & Chan, Tze-Haw, 2005. "East Asian Real Exchange Rates and PPP: New Evidence from panel-data tests," MPRA Paper 2023, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Unit Root Tests are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business- 99-063, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  3. Ata Assaf, 2006. "Nonlinear Trend Stationarity in Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Nonlinear ADF tests," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 7(2), pages 283-294, November.
  4. Culver, Sarah E. & Papell, David H., 1999. "Long-run purchasing power parity with short-run data: evidence with a null hypothesis of stationarity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 751-768, October.

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