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German stock returns: The dance with the dollar

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  • Entorf, Horst
  • Jamin, Gösta

Abstract

In this paper, we try to shed some light on the association between the stock returns of German DAX corporations and movements of the U.S. Dollar. The link turns out to be rather unstable, but it depends significantly on direction and magnitude of foreign trade, and on the existing level of the DM/ Dollar exchange rate. This conclusion is based on exchange-rate-exposure and APT-modelling, as well as on panel data on the performance of 28 German DAX corporations, inclusion of macroeconomic risk factors, data on export and import involvement, and on econometric panel, GLS, SUR and cointegration techniques. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics in its series W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers with number 19.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:19

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  1. Jorion, Philippe, 1991. "The Pricing of Exchange Rate Risk in the Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 363-376, September.
  2. Bhargava, A & Franzini, L & Narendranathan, W, 1982. "Serial Correlation and the Fixed Effects Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 533-49, October.
  3. Brown, Stephen J, 1988. " Joint Estimation of Factor Sensitivities and Risk Premia for the Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Discussion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 734-35, July.
  4. Bodnar, Gordon M. & Gentry, William M., 1993. "Exchange rate exposure and industry characteristics: evidence from Canada, Japan, and the USA," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 29-45, February.
  5. Jia He & Lilian K. Ng, 1998. "The Foreign Exchange Exposure of Japanese Multinational Corporations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 733-753, 04.
  6. McElroy, Marjorie B & Burmeister, Edwin, 1988. "Arbitrage Pricing Theory as a Restricted Nonlinear Multivariate Regression Model: Iterated Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(1), pages 29-42, January.
  7. Burmeister, Edwin & McElroy, Marjorie B, 1988. " Joint Estimation of Factor Sensitivities and Risk Premia for the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 721-33, July.
  8. Adler, Michael & Dumas, Bernard, 1980. "The Exposure of Long-Term Foreign Currency Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 973-994, November.
  9. Gavin, Michael, 1989. "The stock market and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 181-200, June.
  10. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
  11. Bailey, Warren & Chung, Y. Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Political Risk, and Stock Returns: Some Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(04), pages 541-561, December.
  12. Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-45, July.
  13. De Santis, Giorgio & Gerard, Bruno, 1998. "How big is the premium for currency risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 375-412, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Entorf & Jamin, 2005. "German Exchange Rate Exposure at DAX and Aggregate Level, International Trade, and the Role of Exchange Rate Adjustment Costs," International Finance 0508005, EconWPA.

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