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Gewinnentwicklung und Betriebsaufgabe in der Landwirtschaft: Angebotseffekte, Nachfrageeffekte und regionale Heterogenität

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  • Margarian, Anne
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    Abstract

    Das Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit besteht in der Bestimmung der Betriebsaufgabewahrscheinlichkeit verschiedener Betriebstypen im Westen Deutschlands in Abhängigkeit von Gewinnniveau und Gewinnentwicklung. Dabei wird davon ausgegangen, dass die Reaktion der Betriebe auch von der erwarteten Nachhaltigkeit der Gewinnschwankungen sowie von der Betroffenheit anderer Betriebe abhängt. Es wird deshalb auch erwartet, dass die Betriebe in Abhängigkeit vom regionalen Kontext unterschiedlich reagieren. Die Gewinnerwartung der Betriebe wird mithilfe des Testbetriebsnetzes des BMELV geschätzt. Die Betriebsaufgabewahrscheinlichkeit wird in einem zweiten Schritt anhand der flächendeckenden Daten der Agrarstrukturerhebung in einem logistischen Modell für verschiedene Betriebstypen bestimmt. Schließlich werden in einem Metamodell die Ursachen für die regionalen Unterschiede der Schätzkoeffizienten untersucht. Die Annahmen bezüglich der differenzierten Wirkungen betrieblicher Gewinnschwankungen auf die Betriebsaufgabeentscheidung werden weitgehend bestätigt. Zentrale Fragen für die zukünftige Forschung mit längeren Zeitreihen werden identifiziert. -- This working paper aims at the determination of the impact of different profit-levels and changing profits upon farm-exit probabilities of different farm-types in western Germany. It is expected that the farms' reaction depends on the sustainability of profit-changes as well as on the other farms' concernment. Therefore we also expect that farms show heterogeneous reactions depending on the regional context. Farms' expected profits are estimated with the help of the German Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN). Farmexit probabilities are estimated in a second step within a logistic model based on micro data from the farm structural survey. Finally possible causes for heterogeneous estimators are explored in a meta-model. The assumptions concerning the heterogeneous effects of changing profits are confirmed by the results. Central questions for future analyses with longer time-series are identified.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries in its series Arbeitsberichte aus der vTI-Agrarökonomie with number 11/2010.

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    Date of creation: 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:vtiaba:112010

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    Keywords: Agrarstrukturwandel; Betriebsaufgabeentscheidung; heterogene Effekte; Nachbarschaftseffekte; farm structural change; farm-exit decision; heterogeneous effects; neighbourhood effects;

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