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Analyse und Abschätzung des Biomasse-Flächennutzungspotenzials

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  • Kleinhanß, Werner
  • Junker, Franziska Julia
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    Abstract

    Vorliegender Bericht gibt einen Überblick über den Stand und die Projektionen der globalen Landnutzung sowie der Nahrungs- und Futtermittelversorgung bis 2050, wobei die Frage im Mittelpunkt steht, ob zum einen die wachsende Bevölkerung ernährt werden kann und zum anderen, welche Erzeugungspotenziale für Bioenergie, neben der Ernährungssicherung, mobilisiert werden könnten. Die Projektionen der FAO bis zum Jahre 2050 dienen als Basis zur Abschätzung der Erzeugung und zum Verbrauch von Agrarprodukten. Diese werden ergänzt um Abschätzungen zum Biotreibstoffeinsatz sowie den Folgen des Klimawandels. Bei den gegenwärtigen verfügbaren Abschätzungen handelt es sich überwiegend um technische Potenziale für Bioenergie, die von Null bis zum 1,5-fachen des für 2050 prognostizierten Energiebedarfs reichen. Die große Bandbreite der verfügbaren Potenzialabschätzungen ist u. a. darauf zurückzuführen, dass sie sich auf z. T. unzureichende und wenig belastbare Datenquellen stützen, unrealistische Annahmen getroffen werden bzgl. der Erträge von Energiepflanzen sowie der Entwicklung von Technologien, speziell bei der Herstellung von Kraftstoffen der zweiten Generation. Nach unseren Einschätzungen liegen einige dieser weit über den wirtschaftlich realisierbaren Potenzialen. Ökonomisch basierte Modellanalysen wären notwendig, um wirtschaftlich realisierbare Potenziale einzugrenzen. -- This study presents an overview of current and projected land use patterns as well as food and feed supply, with projections reaching up to 2050. The main question is whether there will be enough land resources to feed the growing world population, and, if that is the case, what potential there is for growing energy crops. Estimates for supply and demand of agricultural products in 2050 are based on projections provided by the FAO. Existing studies almost exclusively assess the technical potential for production of bioenergy, and the estimates vary between zero and 150 percent of total energy demand projected for 2050. The big range of the estimated land potentials for energy production is explained by differing data sources, varying assumptions on yield of energy crops and the development of new technologies, in particular related to the production of second generation biofuels. In our view, these technical potentials overestimate the potential that could be realized in an also economically viable way. Analysis based on economic models would be desirable in order to better narrow down the range of economically viable land potentials.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries in its series Arbeitsberichte aus der vTI-Agrarökonomie with number 03/2012.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:vtiaba:032012

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    Keywords: Landnutzung; Bioenergie; Welternährung; global land use; biofuels; food security;

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