IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/vfsc16/145665.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Anti-Poverty Income Transfers in the US - A Framework for the Evaluation of Policy Reforms

Author

Listed:
  • Siassi, Nawid
  • Ortigueira, Salvador

Abstract

In this paper, we present a dynamic model of labor supply, consumption, savings and marital decisions where we embed the income tax schedule and the four main anti-poverty income transfer programs in the U.S. The model is calibrated to match moments from a sample of non-college-educated workers with children in the 2014 Annual Social and Economic Supplement of the Current Population Survey. We then use the model to assess the effects of three recent proposals to reform the U.S. tax-transfer system, and especially to ameliorate the disincentives introduced by the current EITC schedule to married mothers' labor force participation. The categorical and economic conditions for eligibility and benefits of the transfer programs, along with the income and payroll tax system, yield complex budget constraints and introduce a web of interactions whose effects we aim to understand and quantify.

Suggested Citation

  • Siassi, Nawid & Ortigueira, Salvador, 2016. "Anti-Poverty Income Transfers in the US - A Framework for the Evaluation of Policy Reforms," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145665, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc16:145665
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/145665/1/VfS_2016_pid_6617.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chris Herbst, 2011. "The Impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Marriage and Divorce: Evidence from Flow Data," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 30(1), pages 101-128, February.
    2. Marc K. Chan, 2013. "A Dynamic Model of Welfare Reform," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 941-1001, May.
    3. Mickey Hepner & W. Robert Reed, 2004. "The Effect of Welfare on Work and Marriage: A View from the States," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 24(3), pages 349-370, Fall.
    4. Keane, Michael & Moffitt, Robert, 1998. "A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 553-589, August.
    5. Gregory Acs & Sandi Nelson, 2004. "Changes in living arrangements during the late 1990s: Do welfare policies matter?," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 273-290.
    6. Hoynes, Hilary Williamson & Schanzenbach, Diane Whitmore, 2012. "Work incentives and the Food Stamp Program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 151-162.
    7. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2010. "The Role Of Labor And Marriage Markets, Preference Heterogeneity, And The Welfare System In The Life Cycle Decisions Of Black, Hispanic, And White Women," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(3), pages 851-892, August.
    8. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
    9. Jesse Rothstein, 2005. "The Mid-1990s EITC Expansion: Aggregate Labor Supply Effects and Economic Incidence," Working Papers 883, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    10. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Emmanuel Saez, 2013. "Using Differences in Knowledge across Neighborhoods to Uncover the Impacts of the EITC on Earnings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2683-2721, December.
    11. Emmanuel Saez, 2002. "Optimal Income Transfer Programs: Intensive versus Extensive Labor Supply Responses," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(3), pages 1039-1073.
    12. Marianne P. Bitler & Jonah B. Gelbach & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2006. "Welfare Reform and Children's Living Arrangements," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(1).
    13. Athreya, Kartik & Reilly, Devin & Simpson, Nicole B., 2014. "Single Mothers and the Earned Income Tax Credit: Insurance Without Disincentives?," IZA Discussion Papers 8114, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Bruce D. Meyer, 2010. "The Effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit and Recent Reforms," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 153-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Jesse Rothstein, 2010. "Is the EITC as Good as an NIT? Conditional Cash Transfers and Tax Incidence," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 177-208, February.
    16. Jesse Rothstein, 2005. "The Mid-1990s EITC Expansion: Aggregate Labor Supply Effects and Economic Incidence," Working Papers 883, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    17. Lin, Emily Y. & Tong, Patricia K., 2012. "Marriage and Taxes: What Can We Learn From Tax Returns Filed by Cohabiting Couples?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 65(4), pages 807-826, December.
    18. Christopher A. Swann, 2005. "Welfare Reform When Recipients Are Forward-Looking," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(1).
    19. James Alm & Stacy Dickert-Conlin & Leslie A. Whittington, 1999. "Policy Watch: The Marriage Penalty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 193-204, Summer.
    20. Unknown, 1986. "Letters," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-9.
    21. Dan T. Rosenbaum, 2000. "Taxes, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and Marital Status," JCPR Working Papers 177, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    22. Eissa, Nada & Hoynes, Hilary Williamson, 2004. "Taxes and the labor market participation of married couples: the earned income tax credit," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1931-1958, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Melanie Guldi & Lucie Schmidt, 2017. "Taxes, Transfers, and Women’s Labor Supply in the United States," Working Papers 2017-01, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    2. Maren Froemel & Charles Gottlieb, 2021. "The Earned Income Tax Credit: Targeting the poor but crowding out wealth," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 193-227, February.
    3. Salvador Ortigueira & Nawid Siassi, 2022. "The U.S. Tax-Transfer System and Low-Income Households: Savings, Labor Supply, and Household Formation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 184-210, April.
    4. Hoynes, Hilary & Rothstein, Jesse, 2016. "Tax Policy Toward Low-Income Families," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt87d6v10j, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    5. Jorge Rodriguez, 2017. "Understanding the Effects of Income and Child Care Subsidies on Children's Academic Achievement," 2017 Papers pro1077, Job Market Papers.
    6. Hamish Low & Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri & Alessandra Voena, 2018. "Marriage, Labor Supply and the Dynamics of the Social Safety Net," NBER Working Papers 24356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Claudio A., Agostini & Javiera, Selman & Marcela, Perticará, 2013. "Una propuesta de crédito tributario al ingreso para Chile," Estudios Públicos, Centro de Estudios Públicos, vol. 0(129), pages 49-104.
    8. Florian Buhlmann & Benjamin Elsner & Andreas Peichl, 2018. "Tax refunds and income manipulation: evidence from the EITC," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(6), pages 1490-1518, December.
    9. de Boer, Henk-Wim & Jongen, Egbert L.W. & Kabatek, Jan, 2022. "The effectiveness of fiscal stimuli for working parents," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    10. Gabrielle Pepin, 2022. "The effects of welfare time limits on access to financial resources: Evidence from the 2010s," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(4), pages 1343-1372, April.
    11. Elliott Isaac, 2020. "Marriage, Divorce, and Social Safety Net Policy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(4), pages 1576-1612, April.
    12. Nada Eissa & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2006. "Behavioral Responses to Taxes: Lessons from the EITC and Labor Supply," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 20, pages 73-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Julien Albertini & Arthur Poirier & Anthony Terriau, 2020. "The impact of EITC on education, labor market trajectories, and inequalities," Working Papers 2036, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    14. Gabriela Galassi, 2021. "Labor Demand Response to Labor Supply Incentives: Lessons from the German Mini-Job Reform," Staff Working Papers 21-15, Bank of Canada.
    15. Hamish Low & Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri & Alessandra Voena, 2022. "Marriage, Labor Supply and the Dynamics of the Social Safety Net," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2121R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    16. Naveen Singhal, 2021. "Discrete Choice Models for Estimating Labor Supply: Working Paper 2021-04," Working Papers 57027, Congressional Budget Office.
    17. Galassi, Gabriela, 2021. "Labor Demand Response to Labor Supply Incentives: Lessons from the German Mini-Job Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 14248, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Kartik B. Athreya & Devin Reilly & Nicole B. Simpson, 2014. "Young Unskilled Women and the Earned Income Tax Credit: Insurance Without Disincentives?," Working Paper 14-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    19. Nada Eissa & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2006. "Behavioral Responses to Taxes: Lessons from the EITC and Labor Supply," NBER Chapters,in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 20, pages 73-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Athreya, Kartik & Reilly, Devin & Simpson, Nicole B., 2014. "Single Mothers and the Earned Income Tax Credit: Insurance Without Disincentives?," IZA Discussion Papers 8114, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc16:145665. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.