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Cyclicality of Job and Worker Flows: New Data and a New Set of Stylized Facts

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  • Wellschmied, Felix Maximilian
  • Bachmann, Rüdiger
  • Bayer, Christian
  • Seth, Stefan

Abstract

We study the relationship between cyclical job and worker flows at the plant level using a new data set spanning from 1976-2006. We find that procyclical labor demand explains relatively little of procyclical worker flows. Instead, all plants in the employment growth distribution increase their worker turnover during booms. We also find that cyclical changes in the employment growth distribution are mostly driven by plants moving from inactivity to a growing labor force during booms. Consequently, increased labor turnover at growing plants is the main quantitative driver behind increased labor turnover during booms. We argue that on the job search models are able to capture non-parallel shifts in the employment growth distribution and procyclical conditional worker flows for a range of the growth distribution. Yet, they fail to rationalize procyclical accession rates for all shrinking and procylical separation rates for all growing plants. --

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Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order with number 79874.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79874

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  1. Hermann Gartner & Christian Merkl & Thomas Rothe, 2009. "They Are Even Larger! More (on) Puzzling Labor Market Volatilities," Kiel Working Papers 1545, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Mortensen, Dale T & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1994. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 397-415, July.
  3. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2010. "Stochastic Search Equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 661465000000000001, David K. Levine.
  4. Philipp Kircher & Leo Kaas, 2010. "Efficient Firm Dynamics in a Frictional Labor Market," 2010 Meeting Papers 89, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Burgess, Simon & Lane, Julia & Stevens, David, 2000. "Job Flows, Worker Flows, and Churning," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(3), pages 473-502, July.
  6. Menzio, Guido & Moen, Espen R, 2008. "Worker Replacement," CEPR Discussion Papers 7075, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Bellmann, Lutz & Gerner, Hans-Dieter & Upward, Richard, 2011. "Job and Worker Turnover in German Establishments," IZA Discussion Papers 6081, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Shigeru Fujita & Makoto Nakajima, 2013. "Worker flows and job flows: a quantitative investigation," Working Papers 13-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  9. Philip, Jung & Moritz, Kuhn, 2011. "The Era of the U.S.-Europe Labor Market Divide: What can we learn?," MPRA Paper 32322, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Michael Pries & Richard Rogerson, 2005. "Hiring Policies, Labor Market Institutions, and Labor Market Flows," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(4), pages 811-839, August.
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