How Stale Central Bank Interest Rate Projections Affect Interest Rate Uncertainty
AbstractThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand guides interest rate expectations of financial markets by projections of future short-term rates that are updated only once a quarter. As a consequence, projections become stale when time evolves and new information enters the market. This paper investigates the dynamic impact of probably outdated interest rate projections on the expectations management of central banks. Confirming the stabilizing effect of fresh central bank announcements, we show that interest rate uncertainty increases with the time elapsing since the recent interest rate projection. In contrast, we find that stale projections may hamper central bank communication. In fact, interest rate uncertainty increases when the market perceives the projections to be outdated. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order with number 79861.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2014-02-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2014-02-02 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2014-02-02 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2014-02-02 (Monetary Economics)
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