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Persistence in the price-to-dividend ratio and its macroeconomic fundamentals

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  • Rengel, Malte
  • Herwartz, Helmut
  • Xu, Fang

Abstract

Persistent variations in the log price-to-dividend ratio (PtDR) have triggered a lively discussion in the literature. This paper proposes a present value model incorporating this persistence through a time-varying steady state of the PtDR. Log-likelihood statistics confirm that the time-varying state model outperforms its counterpart with a constant steady state. It is shown that the steady state of the PtDR is jointly influenced by consumption risk, risking sharing, and the demographic structure. Among those consumption risk is the dominating factor in shaping the variations in the steady state of the PtDR throughout the entire last century.

Suggested Citation

  • Rengel, Malte & Herwartz, Helmut & Xu, Fang, 2013. "Persistence in the price-to-dividend ratio and its macroeconomic fundamentals," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79860, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79860
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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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